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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12-19-2017
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Nelson
2:58
Jake Lamb more of the same - .250 -30HRs? Is that about the same as Sano, or Sano get to 35?
Brad Johnson
2:58
Projections might look similar but Sano could go wild. I suppose Lamb could also find another gear. Sano still has that superstar upside though
Guest
2:59
Hi Brad, Following up from a question last week regarding FAABs in my 13 team salary cap league.  How many pick ups is fair when we have with a 15 man bench and should dropping a player be needed? Also should they be a set cost like $5 or cost what you bid on them for? Thanks a bunch.
Brad Johnson
2:59
If you have a FAAB, you don't need a cap or a minimum bid
greg bird
2:59
2016 and 2017 I'm getting the same prospect hype.  Are you believing in me?
Brad Johnson
3:00
I go back and forth on this. I think it's a lot easier to see the downside, but the potential remains attractive. The issue may be that you could get the same from Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso for a tiny fraction of the price.
fister colon
3:00
boring question i know but: given equal cost (26th round draft pick, 5 rnd inflation each year), who are your top 3 keepers? bellinger, hoskins, f freeman, buxton, smoak, gallo. thanks brad
Brad Johnson
3:00
Freeman for sure
Probably Buxton and Hoskins for the other two. Bellinger is obviously hard to pass though.
3:01
I guess decide who is more likely to regress - Bellinger or Hoskins. I happen to think Bellinger is the likelier to fall (seemed like he was solved in the postseason).
Joe Musgrove
3:01
Do the Astros let me start again?
Brad Johnson
3:01
Swingman
3:02
You'll get 10 or so starts next season. Musgrove was so good in relief though
tonyc
3:02
Villar went well into the 200s in the early industry mocks.  As far as I can tell he's got a good shot to hold onto the starting job.  Buying opportunity?
Brad Johnson
3:02
Definitely a great buy at that price. I think he'll climb the boards to the 150 range
A Random Dude
3:02
I'm currently only doing Yahoo keep-forever dynasty leagues (1 ESPN re-draft for monies). Started one last season with 14 teams and farm system via spreadsheet that I run. Looking to shed most of the lighter leagues; what kind of league(s) should I look at getting into, and how difficult would it be to get into them? Also, thoughts on Odor over the next like 5 years?
Brad Johnson
3:03
Finding a good dynasty league is a real challenge. I find ottoneu to be the most accessible dynasty-like experience.
Not just because we're affiliated. It's so challenging to find a dynasty league that isn't rigged and therefore doomed to fold when the schmucks stop paying to stay
3:05
As for Odor, I've been warning people off him for years. His profile is so extreme. He's basically a better Danny Espinosa. The price is probably right this year, assuming Willie Calhoun doesn't somehow push him aside. I don't think that's a big risk.
Matt
3:05
Where you placing Kinsler next year? That lineup going to allow him to be a top 12 2B, or is he going to be more in the 10-20 range?
Brad Johnson
3:06
He's leaving a very favorable hitting environment. I would not count on improved stats.
Detroit is tough on home runs and very friendly for everything else. And Kinsler is mostly an everything else hitter these days
Angels Stadium is tough on everything
3:07
I'm not convinced he'll hang onto a top-of-the-order role
Charles Scott
3:07
Hey, Brad, thanks for chatting.
Brad Johnson
3:07
You're welcome
Charles Scott
3:07
Hey Brad, thanks for chatting.  Do you like Luis Castillo or Luke Weaver more next year?
Brad Johnson
3:08
Leaning Castillo, but they're the same asset class. I do like that Weaver has Busch for a home park. GABP is a nightmare.
Matt
3:08
Will Conforto ever play again?
Brad Johnson
3:08
Of course
He might be disappointing this year though. Don't forget this when trying to acquire him
Slamboni
3:08
PSA/Question: I am looking for a good Ottoneu league, but the posts on the page seem to be outdated/abandoned, how can I find a good league to join?!
Brad Johnson
3:09
I recommend getting set up with the ottoneu slack community. Trey Baughn and Justin Vibber know the way in.
Matt
3:09
Gimmie your thoughts on Shark. Does his consistency give him top 30 SP value? SP is so top heavy, I wonder - Is there really a difference between the 20th best SP and the 40th?
Brad Johnson
3:10
Shark is absolutely a top 30 SP. He's probably a top 20 SP. Very few pitchers share his combination of stuff, durability, and deep starts. He can pull an Ervin Santana at the very least
Frankie Fourseams
3:10
Thoughts on McCullers this year? Ace upside if healthy?
Brad Johnson
3:10
Not exactly. He'll pitch like an ace for the 5.1 innings he's in the game. He'll never be more than a long reliever who happens to pitch the first inning
3:11
An ace gives you 7 or more innings in half or more of his starts
You need that volume to reliably accumulate wins or QS
McCullers can't give you those with any reliability
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