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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12-19-2017
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Matt
3:11
I just ran a version of SGP I created (that looks at value above average, instead of overall), and LoCain comes in at like $250 overall based on Depth Charts. What gives, yo?
Brad Johnson
3:12
Sounds like you mathfailed
Colonel Angus
3:12
Who are your Top 3 favorite buy-low candidates in 2018?
Brad Johnson
3:12
To be honest, we're still in pre-ADP so it's hard to really buy low with any accuracy
like Odor should be a buy low guy, but I won't be surprised to see him going above his projection
3:13
Villar does seem like a kick-you-in-the-face value
I think Jerad Eickhoff could win 15 games if healthy with perfectly fine ratios
Bet he'll cost a buck at most
Michael A Taylor
3:13
I see a 20/20 year out of him.  I don't see a lot of hype around his potential.  He looks good in NLDS
Brad Johnson
3:14
I think we're holding our breath while waiting to see what the Nats do. I still think they'll sign JDM, pushing Taylor into a 4th OFer role
He's also the obvious odd man out for Victor Robles
Bobopedia
3:14
Brian Dozier is entering his age 31 season. Is it just normal attrition that has you worry about his value 3-4 years from now, or is there something in his profile you don't like?
Brad Johnson
3:15
It's a mix of attrition and profile. I think he's going to turn into a faster Todd Frazier very soon.
Matt Olson
3:15
What are my chances of hitting 35+ HR and having a .850+ OPS next year?
Brad Johnson
3:15
Low. 15%?
mike
3:15
Alex reyes or walker buehler
Brad Johnson
3:15
I'll take Reyes, especially if we're talking about 2018. Doubt we see more than 20 IP from Buehler.
3:16
Of course, I'd love to see Reyes pitch from a mound and hit upper-90s before committing
Not a Phillies Fan
3:16
Zack Godley or Charlie Morton in 2018?
Brad Johnson
3:16
Gimme Godley. Love Morton too though.
Morton is a good veteran like Rich Hill. I think Godley has an ace inside him
3:17
Had one of the highest ground ball rates for a starter with 13.3% SwStr, 9.59 K/9, and 3.08 Bb/9
3:18
As far as I can tell, the DBacks have quietly installed their humidor and it'll be in use next year. Which should mitigate the league's fastest infield. I'm betting on a 3.10 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go with similar K rates.
Q
3:18
Would Quintana be worth $22 in a 13 teamer?  I have very limited funds due to buyouts.
Brad Johnson
3:19
In a vacuum, yes. Sometimes you're forced to cut a keepable player. Better a pitcher than a similarly valued hitter.
Twinsfan
3:19
Who was the 25th player on the 1987 World Series winning Twins team.  Cannot find this answer anywhere.  Also how do you like the Twins next year.
Brad Johnson
3:19
I was born in 1987. I do not know. I do like the Twins, assuming they make a few additions to the pitching staff.
SSS
3:20
Buxton over Bellinger? Is that based off the strength of his finish? Because he finished 2016 great too, and then the first 4 months of 2017 happened.
Brad Johnson
3:20
Buxton's a tough cookie to crack.
Or is he a tough cracker to cook?
I don't know
I like the 20/40 potential he flashed. That's sneaky valuable even if the rest of the profile scuffles
3:21
He's one of the best base runners in the league and his elite defense ensures he'll remain in the lineup through his slumps
He's basically Keon Broxton with huge upside and safe playing time
And more SB
Matt
3:21
Re LoCain and my failed SGP - I meant #250...does your response change now that he's at the bottom instead of the top?
Brad Johnson
3:22
Haha! That's very different
That still smells wrong to me based on the 74/15/69/16/.288 projection
That's a top 100 player
3:23
Maybe your method is hammering him for 595 PA. How are you treating replacement PA?
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