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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2-4-2020
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Brad Johnson
4:00
I don't how many keeps you get, but a young Adam Eaton in an OBP format is a hell of a drug
4:01
Of course, passing on Tucker is pretty tricky too. But I'd take Benintendi without a second thought based on the info you've given.
ResumeMan
4:02
Will FanGraphs be hosting the SaberSim projections this year?
Brad Johnson
4:02
As far as I know, yes. However, their tool has more powerful projections and isn't too expensive compared to others on the market. (fd: I get it for free)
4:03
(I'm also not paid or induced to promote them, I genuinely like them)
Walewander
4:03
Keeper league, I've been offered Gore and Bart for Wander. All have the same keeper price (they're all in the minors for now). What should I do?  I'm building towards ~2021-22
Brad Johnson
4:03
Super easy pass for me
Bad Back
4:03
In a QS league, do you feel better about keeping Lamet or Marquez.
Brad Johnson
4:03
Marquez
GlasNOW or Later?
4:04
Would love to hear your thoughts on Glasnow for this year.  Over or under 150 IP?  Seems like the hype train is ignoring the TJS warning signals of his forearm strain and setbacks during 2019 (My person decision is whether to keep him at $12 or Matt Chapman at $7 in a 12 team roto keep forever, standard categories $260 budget...my other keepers are Scherzer and 5 stud bats).
Brad Johnson
4:04
I'd lean Glasnow in that specific situation. Again though, passing on a $7 Chapman does kinda hurt.
4:05
I'm probably betting on under 150 IP but willing to pay for the over in fantasy
Let's say he's 40% to go over just to put a number on it. Those are almost all extremely valuable scenarios.
And even at 120 IP, he could earn $12.
RMR
4:06
Odds Senzel gets enough PT at 2B before Suarez comes back to get his 2B eligibility back?
Brad Johnson
4:06
I would not assume they're just going to shift Moustakas to 3B to kick off his 4-year contract
4:07
They bought him as a 2B, and I think they'll leave him there
So it's probably Senzel who's handling spare 3B starts
Vic
4:07
Please rank these 3....N Anderson, A Munoz, E Clase.
Brad Johnson
4:07
You've done it.
The biebs
4:07
I haven't seen anyone talk about Bieber's less-than-stellar statcast numbers. Is there any reason to be concerned with the hard contact he gives up? (4th percentile EV and 5th for hard hit rate)
Brad Johnson
4:08
I was worried about it going into 2019. I had him and Nick Pivetta in the same asset class. I get now why they're different (Pivetta's fastball doesn't play), but I still see serious homeritis risk
And it's not tied to a juiced ball
Walewander
4:09
Thanks Brad! Would be grateful to hear why Franco>>Bart & Gore is so clear-cut for you.
Brad Johnson
4:09
Generational talent compared to a couple core-to-star quality players. One of whom is a pitcher and thus prone to long-tail outcomes.
4:10
And what I mean by that is Gore's path to MLB regular includes outcomes like Giolito, Glasnow, and Cole
Serious upside and we have every reason to believe he'll eventually be an ace if he stays healthy
4:11
But... pitchers with big stuff tend to experience growing pains upon entering the majors.
Guest
4:11
Relatively shallow H2H 7x6 (QS + K/9 instead of Ks) - does this setup still lend itself to going heavy on high end pitchers, or does the extra hitting category skew that strategy?
Brad Johnson
4:12
Both conditions are probably true. Since the league is shallow, elite SP is still the scarcest/stackable source of points.
PB
4:12
What would you give up for Benintendi in dynasty?
Brad Johnson
4:12
You'd need to define this a lot more. See: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/league-depth-affects-prospect-value/
4:13
I'll use 20-team deep rosters for this.
On the PV side, something like J.D. Martinez and a solid older pitcher. Lance Lynn?
4:14
On the FV side, a trio of guys you like. I'll say Luis Urias, Marco Luciano, and Kris Bubic just to put some names on it
Machadres
4:15
How do you prefer Luzardo Woodruff and Lamet in an IP/QS league with similar future keepability? 12 teams and I'm rebuilding after a title
Brad Johnson
4:15
If I can look out past 2020, I strongly prefer Luzardo
They're similar asset class for me in 2020 with Lamet perhaps looking the best.
Guest
4:15
Major differences in how the projection systems (e.g., Steamer/Depth Charts) are valuing Sale vs. the imputed value from his ADP right now. Do you see him as a buying opportunity or an example of where the computers don't know things that we do (serious injury, declining velocity)?
Brad Johnson
4:16
Well it's a little bit of both. I haven't found any opportunities to grab shares of him in the few drafts I've done thus far.
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