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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3-13-2018
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Brad Johnson
4:16
They weren't for me :(
Ryan
4:16
You feel good about Ken Giles this year? Would Devenski be next in line if Giles falters?
Brad Johnson
4:17
Yes, with the caveat that Giles always seems to have a bad month per season. And the Astros are not very patient about it.
No telling who's next in line at this point. Dev should be in the mix though.
Matt
4:18
Yo. No cookies unless they're digital cookies. This is chat time. WTF, mate?!
todd
4:18
How big of an impact will Arizona new park factors have on Arizona pitchers?  Is Ray a legit ace now?
Brad Johnson
4:19
Ray was an ace without the humidor. I don't have any special insight. I'm seeing some bold claims from some seemingly robust methods. I'm still skeptical the effect will be as massive as estimated.
Andrew Perpetua has a lot on the topic.
Guest
4:19
Who has more value this year....Howie Kendrick or Tim Beckham?
Brad Johnson
4:19
Beckham seems destined to play more. Kendrick is still a better player.
I think
4:20
Admittedly, Beckham is hard to evaluate - I did his player page.
Daniel Castro
4:20
Love and kisses from your favorite prospect! Mwah.
Brad Johnson
4:20
Where's my shirt?
:(
Ballpark Frank
4:20
Who would you rather have this year Gardner or Hicks?
Brad Johnson
4:21
Hicks for now. That's a risky outfield to invest in if you're counting on playing time
RK
4:21
I get the lack of precedent conern on his shoulder, but if he's back, he's going to be a top 10 OF...that's way worth the risk of where he's going -100 picks IMO.  He's been 9th already from 15'-17' https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=90...
Brad Johnson
4:21
Strong assumptions...
4:22
Using smallish sample wRC+ isn't convincing me to ignore regression.
So we have to consider the following...
4:23
1. Normal regression - his production to date is 10-25% above what we should expect
2. Injury rust/digression - his production is negatively affected by the injury in the form of lessened talent, shaky mechanics, fatigue, etc.
Humidor Me
4:23
If the humidor does have a huge effect, isn't it likely that they scrap it or dial it down so it is not so extreme?
Brad Johnson
4:24
Not in-season. They can't set it however they like. The league is heavily involved in that process. More likely, they just like Chase play like a pitcher's park
Bobby Cox
4:24
Who do you like among the young Braves starters this year and beyond?  Folty and Newcomb have looked good in spring training so far but Gohara is hurt.  Fried on the bubble?  Prospect guys love Wright, Soroka and Anderson.
Brad Johnson
4:25
I haven't been watching their guys this spring. Soroka is definitely interesting though. They're kinda like the more physically talented version of the Phillies staff - a lot of throw 'em at the wall guys. Some will stick. Hard to guess who.
Jason
4:26
Better lottery ticket: M. Brantley or R. McMahon
Brad Johnson
4:26
Gimme Brantley. Roster comp matters though.
FaRt
4:26
Who has a bigger season this year, Domingo, Mazara, Bux or Souza?
Brad Johnson
4:27
I'll go Buxton. The stolen base floor is very valuable. Jeff Z claims a SB is worth 2 HR. Buxton, if healthy, is an easy 30 SB guy with 20 HR ability tacked on for good measure.
So 80 HR per Jeff's math? Souza's the only guy who can touch that.
4:28
And only if Buxton starts really flailing again
Sandy Ravage
4:28
Bannister says Deshields will be the everyday CF and lead off. Is it crazy to think he could steal 50+ bases?
Brad Johnson
4:28
Nope. Should be a borderline top 100 pick.
Can justify pushing top 75
4:29
Honestly, I'd be picking him in the 40s if I didn't think I could sleep on him
That'll change
Big Tuna
4:29
You still buying shares of Calhoun after the demotion? When do you think he's up?
Brad Johnson
4:29
Yes, I doubt he's down for more than a month.
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