Brad Johnson Baseball Chat - 3/23/2017
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Brad Johnson
Hello everyone, I'm going to take the next couple minutes to finally renew my, then we'll get started
How worried should the Mets be about Steven Matz long term? I understand he is young and sometimes these guys just all of a sudden stay healthy for 3,4,5 years but this is becoming very troubling.
Brad Johnson
Pitcher health is always a pain for us fantasy owners. Everybody is a long term concern. That said, Matz certainly isn't winning the "health as a skill" championship
I think it's time to treat him like a Francisco Liriano - promising when everything is clicking, but so frequently out of sorts
Mike Milligan
Thanks for the bonus chat! 4th pick in a 12 team draft today. Kershaw Betts Altuve Bryant. Please rank assuming some are available
Brad Johnson
So...these are the types of questions I don't like :)
And I'll explain why, a lot of effort is put into the first round. Unless you're trying to be clever by picking Harper before Trout, these picks really don't matter.
any of them is a GREAT foundation for a team, it's up to you to decide which profile you manage best
Some owners are best suited to having elite rotation anchors, others prefer to go offense heavy and secure early draft steals, still others want their steals late and power early
if you don't know which method fits your management style best, pick whoever you think will be the most fun to manage
What's that Odor
Are you high on Hunter Renfroe? He had a great short stint last season and having is having a good spring. Like him better than someone like a (healthy) Michael Brantley?
Brad Johnson
A healthy Michael Brantley is a real treat to watch. And a top 50 talent. Not sure we can call Renfroe anything like that. That said, I'd probably flip a coin between this uncertain version of Brantley and Renfroe. I do like Renfroe's bat.
English Bob
Who do you like better in fantasy this season: Renfroe, Mazara or Bird? (I have a UTIL Spot to fill, so not so worried about position).
Brad Johnson
Bird, Mazara, Renfroe
last two very close
Over/Under 47 steals for Villar this year?
Brad Johnson
I'm taking the under. I think he's established himself and will now work on buffing his power output.
Joe Nello
Who has the best hand-eye coordination in the MLB?
Brad Johnson
I'll need to wander off a moment for this one...
Interestingly, my gut reaction was Javier Baez because of the tags. However you'd think good hand/eye would also correlate to a low K rate
Andrelton Simmons has to be up there...I bet Joe Panik and Jose Altuve are too
Not sure how to handicap catchers in this discussion
Yadi, Lucroy, Posey, etc
How do you see Mike Montgomery fitting in with the Cubs staff? Do you think it'll take an injury to get him into the rotation? For Fantasy purposes, are his innings/rate stats as a reliever worthy enough to start him now?
Brad Johnson
He'll get 17 starts or so, they talked about this plan in the offseason. Cubs don't think Anderson or Monty can handle a full workload so they want them to split. Other injuries may force more than an even split.
How long will McCarthy stick in Dodgers rotation? Is he just a placeholder?
Brad Johnson
He'll start with a short leash. If he looks like he did the last time he was healthy, that leash will extend quickly.
If he looks like he did in 2016, then he'll be cut by June
If Polanco starts the year off on the DL, does Meadows play while he's out? How does it affect the Pirates plans this year if he performs well enough to force their hand and keep him up?
Brad Johnson
I don't think there's anything he can do to oust Polanco or Marte when they're healthy. I wasn't under the impression Polanco would miss much time though.
McCutchen is the weak link in that a hot Meadows could accelerate trade talks. Even then, the cadence of in-season trade negotiation will force that into June or July
Joaquín Quinoa
This winter, the GM for my daily changes league team (me) fired the manager (also me) for relying too much on BvP stats when setting lineups. The new manager (me again), excited to take the reins, just noticed that in the season opening series Matt Carpenter faces Lester (4 for 24 lifetime) and Arrieta (0 for 25) ... Should he send Carp to the bench despite the fate of his predecessor?
Brad Johnson
I miss the days when all my DFS opponents relied on BvP. I raked by simply ignoring it. Now everybody else knows to ignore it too.
Here's my take on BvP: Yes, there are absolutely matchups that strongly favor the pitcher or hitter. Just looking at the results of 25 PA aren't going to help you find those.
What you really need to do is apply analysis of the hitter and pitcher. Here's an extreme example, let's say you have a low ball masher like Jake Lamb. He's facing a weird Sean Doolittle start. Doolittle is a fellow lefty who lives high in the strike zone. Lamb is probably a hot mess in that scenario.
As for Carpenter/Arrieta/Lester, I'm not aware of any reason why Carpenter would be a must-sit
Stuck in a Slump
If Peraza ends up hitting enough to earn the leadoff spot for the Reds, how much do you expect him to beat his projections?
Brad Johnson
Projected Fantasy Slash per Depth Charts: 63/7/53/31/.281
in 595 PA
Peraza the leadoff man is a 650 PA guy with 100 runs. The rest of the projection is roughly on par
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