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Braves Chat, 2022-23
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Dye should have never been traded!
12:44
Riley doesn't have great range.  He doesn't move left well.  He has a fantastic arm. He gets a little better every year
Anthony Franco
12:45
This seems to be the consensus, which about matches what I expected. Could see the left side defense being a bit problematic if Dansby walks, sure. Hadn't considered that before this chat
RotationQ
12:46
You’ve mentioned Elder a couple times, outside of Dan Szymborski last offseason, it seems like few evaluators are giving him his due. Were pitch mix changes enough to be a viable 3/4 type arm or do you think Elder is more of a fringe starter candidate?
Anthony Franco
12:47
Yeah I think 3/4 starter, probably more of a #4 guy, feels right. Solid enough strike-thrower, cutter should help him hold his own against left-handed hitters. I like him
Drew
12:47
What may a Max Fried extension look like? What is his estimated arb number?
Jerry
12:48
Next one to get an extension? Wright?
Anthony Franco
12:49
I was trying to find a good comparable for Fried before the chat and really couldn't. It's something I'll probably do a deeper dive on for a post at some point this offseason
He's between four and five service years, projected at just above $12M in arbitration
12:50
Record for that class is deGrom at $120.5M over four. He was coming off a Cy Young but two years older, and the deal's a few years old now
12:52
I think there's a reasonable case for Fried to beat it. Berríos, who's an inferior pitcher, got 131 over seven. He was a year further along in arb, which matters, but that's the general range for Fried probably
12:54
Wright's going to be cheaper. Germán Márquez and Blake Snell both landed between $40MM and $50MM in that service bucket a few years back. Wright feels around there to me
Closer
12:54
Surely Braves didn't trade for Iglesias to be a $16m set up man. Right?
Anthony Franco
12:54
I assume they'll let Jansen walk and he'll end up closing
Chris
12:54
What do you think the Braves do with Manny Pina? Though prob not a lot, he seems like he'd have some trade value.
Anthony Franco
12:55
I think someone would take the money but there wouldn't be much of a return. Could see them moving him to shed a couple million and give him a better chance at playing time
Braves fan
12:56
Do you see the Braves signing a Matt Moore to fill the void of Matzek being lost to TJ surgery
Anthony Franco
12:57
Minter and Lee is already a pretty good 1-2 pairing from the left side. Stockpiling bullpen depth can't hurt, so I'm sure they'll check in, but I figure there'll be other teams ultimately more motivated to land him
Guest
12:57
Do you think that Masataka Yoshida is on ATL’s radar? I like the idea
NickNash
12:57
What kind of contract do you see Cody Bellinger signing? If he is available in March and the Braves have not added a OF, do you think he would be a good fit?
Anthony Franco
12:58
Got a few questions about both of these guys. Yoshida's an interesting fit for a team looking for corner OF help, so sure, I could see the Braves checking in there
12:59
Think Bellinger ends up somewhere with a clearer path to center field playing time. There's a real chance he just can't hit anymore, which becomes even more problematic if you're putting him in a corner
I'd guess like 1/12 on the Bellinger price point
hometown discount
12:59
thanks for the chat Anthony; how likely do you think it is ATL (maybe in a few years) trades one of their long term signings? will be interesting to see how these contracts are valued in the future if younger pre-arb players start signing more of these deals
Anthony Franco
1:01
This sort of thing feels like it depends on how the team performs. There should be a ton of trade value on the Harris, Acuna, Strider types even in 2025-26, but if they're consistently carrying you to the top of the NL East, it's tough to break it up before you have to
1:02
If the team starts floundering, then yeah, a shake-up becomes more plausible. I lean towards this core being so talented you'll never really have to do that
bkap73
1:02
Don’t get me wrong, I am not an Ozuna fan. However, I think it is important that we do not lose sight of his 2020 production. He has been successful in the past, but is that over? It is hard to tell if he was a cancer in the clubhouse in ‘22, but he certainly was, and still is to the Fanbase! Do you think it is worth the risk to see if he can return to that level of production?
Anthony Franco
1:03
I'm pretty pessimistic on Ozuna's outlook solely from an on-field perspective. He was just ok during his final two seasons in St. Louis (.262/.327/.451) during a couple of juiced-ball years. He went off in 2020 and was one of the best hitters in baseball for a couple months, then has been pretty bad the last two years
1:05
His overall body of work for the last five years is .258/.323/.454. He's a fine hitter, but the the spike in 2020 just feels like an outlier that he didn't have to sustain over a full season
Paired with barely passable left field defense, I just don't think he's all that good of a player, even aside from anything he's done off the field
Rally Monkey
1:05
Rengifo could be a trade option if the Angels look to the FA SS market. What kind of return would the Braves give up?
Anthony Franco
1:06
He doesn't have a whole lot of trade value in my view but Jon Morosi suggested this month the Angels were taking him off the table in trade talks
1:07
Now I'm sure he's not truly untouchable since he's Luis Rengifo, but if that's an indication the Angels are setting a huge asking price because they're already light on infield depth, it doesn't feel like he's getting moved
1:08
Alright I have to run unfortunately, but this has been fun
Thanks for all the questions. This was by far the most attended team chat I've done yet, so apologies if I didn't get to your question
1:09
I'm on Twitter @affranco10 if you want to throw anything at me there
I also do weekly chats exclusive to Front Office subscribers where you're significantly more likely to get your question answered than in one of these, since the queues are much smaller
You can find more about our memberships there if that
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