JotCast | Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/29/19

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Frog

3:33

Do you see Juan Soto as an mvp?

Steve Adams

3:33

I think he'll have multiple seasons as a legitimate, justified MVP candidate, yes. And I thought last year's ROY voting between him and Acuna should've been far closer than it was, though I had no real issue with either winning.

Mark

3:34

do you put the pools up to see how many are on right now. Ha

Steve Adams

3:34

Ha no. I have a running count of how many people are in the chat at a given moment. Usually not even half the people in the chat actually vote. We're at about 1,500 right now, though it's in a pretty constant state of flux

J-Hey

3:35

Heyward was a 29 WAR player when he became a FA at 26. Since then he's been worth 5 WAR over 3 years, with 5 more years to go. Should owners disregard that sample when offering contracts to Harper and Machado? Seems like the most relevant comparison...

Steve Adams

3:39

Heyward's value was much more predicated on his glove -- his best offensive season is basically an average one for Harper -- and there's no real reason that should deter anyone.

When you're looking at whether you want to sign a player long-term, you're looking at how people of that age, skill set, etc. have held up from ages 26 to 35. Heyward is one data point, to be sure, but there's no sense limiting yourself to him unless you think that his contract magically made him a bad player.

I don't think any team believes that to be the case. You could just as easily look at his former teammate, Freddie Freeman, and say "this guy has mashed since signing $135MM and is a bargain at that rate." But again, there's no reason to limit your data sample to guys who sign contracts or don't. Even if there were some causation there, you'd need a vastly larger sample to prove it relevant.

Poll 3

3:39

The poll has the wrong year. If it were for 2018 it would be analysis of stats not a projection

Steve Adams

3:39

Damn!

Well, hopefully we all know what I meant, ha. I can't edit the title once I post it. Sorry.

bill

3:40

Should we expect a player strike with the state of free agency?

Steve Adams

3:40

I've been saying for most of the offseason that it seems inevitable.

MikeyPrimo

3:40

Is Ervin Santana a good fit for the Mets?

Steve Adams

3:42

He'd be a good depth piece, but you have to look at it from his vantage point. He wants to go somewhere that he can log inning and reestablish himself. The Mets already have deGrom, Thor, Wheeler, Matz locked into the rotation, and Jason Vargas is earning $8MM so he's going to get a shot to bounce back. Not the most appealing spot for Ervin. It'd be better for him to sign with a non-contender who has innings to offer; as long as he pitches well, he'd be flipped to a contender anyway in that case.

Cubs Fan

3:42

Why does everyone bemoan the 'rich teams' staying below the luxury tax, isn't that the primary reason it was put in place (to be defacto cap)?

Steve Adams

3:43

It was put in place to slow down their spending with the idea that teams wouldn't blow past it by $100MM -- not that teams would wholly avoid crossing it at all.

3:44

Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
24s
Despite all the rumors bouncing around, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado came into today no closer to signing with a team than they’ve been since Nov. 1.

I, for one, thought MLB The Show had truly broken this thing wide open.

Domino

3:44

Next free agent to sign?

Steve Adams

3:45

It'll be someone not that exciting most likely. Ryan Madson has supposedly been weighing his options for like 4-5 days now, so he'd get my pick.

Oriole fan

3:45

Tell me why I should buy a season ticket to this team ?

Steve Adams

3:46

Do you have plenty of disposable income and generally derive value from sitting at a beautiful park on nice nights? If so, go for it. If not -- don't.

I give real good advice, I know.

It’sa me

3:47

Will Bote be traded to the Padres when they do not sign Machado? Or is a trade with the Phillies for Franco more likely?

Steve Adams

3:48

Franco is going to be an odd man out in Philly either way. I'd call that match far, far likelier. Bote still has options remaining.

Oakland A's

3:48

In their current state do you see the A's topping 88 wins this year?

Steve Adams

3:49

Hard to see with the lack of starters. I know they pulled it off last year, but I don't think that's repeatable. Still time to add, though.

Tom

3:49

Do the White Sox have a shot at contention without signing Machado or Harper?

Steve Adams

3:49

I'm not sure they'd contend even if they signed one of them. But adding one now with the goal toward moving the needle forward and really contending in 2020 or 2021 seemed like a fine strategy.

3:50

But... their projected rotation right now is Carlos Rodon, Ivan Nova, Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito and ... Manny Banuelos maybe? That's not getting it done

Juuust a bit outside

3:51

Are there any good LH RF options the cards could go get not named Bryce Harper?

Steve Adams

3:52

I'm sure they could get Jay Bruce cheaply from Seattle or sign CarGo for peanuts, but at that point they're probably better off just rolling the dice on Fowler. Possible they could try to overwhelm Arizona for David Peralta, but I have to imagine that was already kicked around during Goldy talks and that there's a reason it didn't happen.

On the plus side, there are always some decent corner OF options available on the summer market.

Chris S

3:53

If LAD dont come away with Harper this year, could they be in on Goldy next offseason with Belli moving to the outfield?

Steve Adams

3:54

Goldschmidt is more up Friedman's alley probably; he'll be older which means he'd be likelier to take something like three years with a bonkers annual value as opposed to seeking max years.

Remington Tufflips

3:54

Going to see Coheed&Cambria in 2 weeks and have an extra VIP ticket!! Dont remember who but one of you guys are into them.

Steve Adams

3:55

If I've seen them live eight times does that qualify as "being into them"? :) Haha

It'll be a good show! I assume that ticket is for somewhere other than Minneapolis/St. Paul, haha, so I'm probably not the ideal person to use it on! Ha

The High Grand Master of Mosh

3:55

Castellanos? Does he get traded?

Steve Adams

3:56

At some point he will, yes. But Al Avila was pretty frank when saying there's not a ton of interest in him right now. Summer seems likelier, though if someone loses a corner OF/DH early in Spring Training, that could change things quickly.

Racing Presidents

3:57

If only one team has made you an offer, why do so many people want to believe you're going somewhere else?

Steve Adams

3:58

Because agents and teams are so careful about what constitutes "an offer." The whole "that offer was never made!" thing after a player supposedly rejects one is often semantics. Any agent can say, without even lying technically, that they "never received an offer" if the paperwork wasn't drawn up.

Bryce Harper knows what the Phillies would be comfortable paying him right now. Same for the White Sox, Dodgers and probably a few other unexpected clubs.

3:59

But has he "had offers" from those teams? Technically speaking, perhaps not.

Jocc Pedersonn

4:00

Is a platoon of me and Adam Duvall the solution to Atlanta's LF situation?

Steve Adams

4:00

I think the return of Nick Markakis pretty much sealed up Atlanta's OF mix.

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