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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/31/23
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Steve Adams
12:14
For the record, on that NL West poll, I'm taking the Padres as things stand at the moment, but it's not by an excessive margin. Dodgers have so much top-end talent that'll be breaking into the Majors this year.
Jose Iglesias
12:14
Will I get a big league contract? Or am I going to have to settle for a minor league deal?
Steve Adams
12:16
There just aren't a ton of teams out there looking for a shortstop at this point, and Iglesias' defensive ratings at the position have declined precipitously anyhow. He can hit for an empty average, and teams probably feel good about him as a viable 2B/3B/SS-style utility option, so that might get him a couple million bucks as it did for Josh Harrison. But right now, he's not even the best SS option on the market with Andrus still out there.
Orioles
12:17
Is the Dodgers dynasty over or just resetting?
Steve Adams
12:18
The farm is so deep, the payroll has so much capacity, I don't really think they're ever just going to bottom out and be a cellar-dwelling rebuilder. The resources are too vast and the organization is too well run and too good at player development for that to happen.

Even if I'm picking the Padres for the division, I'd probably give the Dodgers a Wild Card nod. (I haven't really sat down and thought hard about my division-by-division predictions yet... I rarely do when there's still enough time in the offseason for some notable player movement)
Beer queries!
12:18
Houser, Hiura and Wiemer are the start to a package for what kind of return?
Steve Adams
12:20
I don't think Hiura has much value at all. Not even fully certain I'd buy him getting claimed by another team if he were DFA'ed with a $2.2MM salary.

Houser is a nice fourth/fifth rotation option with a couple years of control... decent piece but not huge value. Joey Wiemer's the only thing in this package with considerable trade value, but probably not to the extent you're thinking based on this question.

I don't think that's the type of package that would net a high-end player for the Brewers.
It's sort of a collection of spare parts
Concerned, in Baltimore
12:21
Is the growth of all of the O's young talent really enough to assume a somewhat lucky 82-win season could become more in '23?

No offense to Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin, but feels like Elias (by hook or by crook) is just betting on the young guys.
Steve Adams
12:21
I'm pretty surprised that the extent of their offseason shopping seems like it's going to be Gibson, Irvin, Mychal Givens and James McCann.
12:23
I didn't ever expect the O's to sign Correa or Xander or something, but I thought they'd get one of the mid-tier starters and maybe pursue a corner bat that could legitimately deepen and improve the lineup.

There's a big bet being placed that a full season of both Rutschman and Henderson and perhaps Grayson Rodriguez will push them over the top. But I also think they're due for regression in several other spots (Mateo, most of the incumbent rotation options), and if any of Rutschman, Henderson or Rodriguez is dealt a serious injury, the whole thing goes up in flames pretty quick.

The offseason is underwhelming enough, particularly in the wake of Elias' payroll comments, that I genuinely wonder if ownership balked at some of the prices out there.
12:24
The trade for Irvin, in isolation, is totally fine. But when it's that and Kyle Gibson to upgrade the starting staff ... that's a tough outcome for fans.
Wadz
12:25
If Wacha takes a deal like you propose.... then get a QO thats basically the 2/30 he originally wanted.
Steve Adams
12:25
I don't think Wacha set out looking for 2/30. I think that's what he's recently been seeking. I'd wager he was seeking three or more years early on.
Mike
12:26
Do you think Jean Segura and Luis Arraez will improve the Marlins?
Steve Adams
12:27
I think Miami will be a better offensive club in 2023 and a worse defensive club, and I'm not sure the gains with the bat are going to offset the potential for a pretty grisly defensive alignment.

Maybe Jazz takes to CF like a natural, but Arraez at 2B, Segura at 3B, Jazz in CF, Wendle as a primary SS for  the first time ever ... it's just a lot of guys playing positions they're not great at/not familiar with.
12:28
To be clear, I don't see any reason Wendle can't play a solid shortstop, but he's never done it before, and if he's injured then the plan is ... Jazz to SS and a corner OF in center? Jacob Amaya up at SS?

I don't really get them trading Rojas -- certainly not in conjunction with the acquisition of Arraez and move of Chisholm to center.
Just a weird offseason.
Steve
12:29
Are the tigers going to break their previous record of 119 losses, this team looks horrible on paper
Steve Adams
12:29
I don't think they'll be good,  but I certainly don't think they'll be this  bad.
Halos
12:30
Does Ohtani get moved prior to the deadline? Seems unlikely the Angels can afford him barring a catastrophic change in course.
Steve Adams
12:31
Every year I get duped into thinking the Angels look pretty good on paper and that this is the year they can contend in the AL West.

I'm not gonna do it this time. I'm just not going to do i--

Crap.

I don't think they'll move Ohtani because I'm bullish on a rotation of him/Sandoval/Detmers/Anderson/Suarez and just refuse to believe that a lineup with Trout, Ohtani, Ward and (fingers crossed since I love watching the guy play) a healthy Rendon can underperform to past levels.'
12:32
I'm not an Angels fan, but I apparently am a born sucker.
But Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers are good. Very good.
Scott
12:33
After dealing with the Bauer fiasco will the Dodgers try to dip under the CBT, possibly by moving someone like Muncy or Taylor?
Steve Adams
12:34
Think it was Fabian Ardaya with The Athletic who recently wrote he does not believe they're going to try to do so. No reason not to trust that
Frustrated Reds Fan
12:34
Hi Steve, I have asked this question every chat and still hoping you answer it. How can teams like the Reds, Pirates, A's say they cant afford to compete, when Forbes just posted MLB exceeded 10.8 Billion dollars? Thats $360 million per team (no team will agree to a lesser cut of that)? I as a Reds fan feel they are lying to our fan base and banking that revenue. There should be a rule if you dont use say 60% of that on payroll you loose revenue the next season. That would stop tanking!!
Steve Adams
12:35
I haven't been avoiding it --  we just get tons of questions and I can't possibly get to/even read all of them.

I touched on my thoughts on the Reds earlier. I don't see how, with $65MM in national streaming/tv revenue and $30MM from the BAMTech to Disney sale, they can trot out an $80MM-ish payroll while Phil Castellini makes comments like "we run this club like a non-profit."

It's insulting to fans. I wish I had a better answer, but if it makes you feel any better, I'd be livid too if I were a lifelong Reds fan.
Sanotgonnahappen
12:36
Not a word on Miguel Sano. I saw as lot of analysts predicting he lands somewhere on an MLB minimum deal, but I have a feeling he's destined for a different league at this point. Agree?
Steve Adams
12:36
I assume he'll just sign a minor league deal somewhere in the next couple weeks and compete for a job this spring.
dbacks fan
12:36
How soon will the dbacks be pennant contenders? I'm excited about the core they are building
Steve Adams
12:38
They'd need a lot to break right for them this year, but they'd be among my long-shot picks to exceed expectations. 2024 feels more viable... they'll know after this year which spots on the roster are solidified, they'll be a year closer to the end of the Bumgarner deal (perhaps making it easier to get from underneath some of it).... the outlook in Arizona is looking better by the month.
MikeD
12:39
Wacha not getting a QO was wise.
Steve Adams
12:40
Giving Wacha a QO never made any sense to me. I was surprised to see it was even a subject of debate among Boston media. I have to imagine that means the team at least kicked it around, but when I first saw that suggested I had to check to see if I was misreading or if someone had made a typo, haha
MikeD
12:40
Wacha not getting a QO was wise, but the Yankees should have QO’d Tallion, right?
Steve Adams
12:40
Ah I didn't see the one with your full question.
12:42
I was surprised the Yankees didn't QO Taillon, yeah. All of us on the MLBTR team felt he'd have rejected it. Wouldn't have gotten 4/68 with the QO most likely, though, and there was always the small chance he just took it.

That wouldn't be a terrible outcome for the Yankees, but I can see why, with uncertainty about Judge's status and with eyes on bigger free-agent SP fish like Rodon, they didn't want to risk committing $19MM+ to Taillon on day one of the offseason.
Dave
12:42
Did the Red Sox get more for Matt Barnes than you thought they would both money wise and talent wise?
Steve Adams
12:43
I'm not all that big on Bleier. I'm surprised they got someone to take as much of Barnes' contract as they did. All things equal, I'd rather roll the dice on Barnes and chase ceiling, but I was pretty surprised that the Marlins of all clubs took on $5MM+ and gave up a decent reliever to try to revitalize Barnes.
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