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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/21/24
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Lord Crenshaw
1:23
With a deeper left field wall now, would the Orioles have any interest in Nick Pivetta? He seems like someone who may fit their budgetary "hopes".
Steve Adams
1:24
I would love to see Pivetta in a big park. The K-BB numbers are excellent. He's constantly undercut by his propensity for giving up home runs. Reasonable fit for the O's, sure, but you could say the same for several other clubs. Pivetta is a talented, if homer-prone pitcher and will probably get more money than a lot of people expect this winter.
BabyYoda
1:25
Rangers pitching staff seems a bit shaky for upcoming year.  Eovaldi and Bradford seem like a decent 1-2.  If DeGrom can ever stay healthy, that's a nice top 3.  Should the Rangers look into trying to bring back Montgomery from the Dbacks?  Gray was serviceable.
Steve Adams
1:26
Eovaldi has a player option he's going to decline. I wouldn't include him in your plans.

It's deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Bradford, Dunning, Leiter, Rocker on the depth chart right now, so yeah, they need to bring in some arms in a big way.
Chris S
1:27
With the amount of money coming off the books this offseason, where do you see the Mets payroll going and who/what are the bulk of the expenditures?
Steve Adams
1:29
I'd be shocked if they're not in on just about every major free agent. They'll bid on Soto but also Burnes/Fried/Snell. They'll try to re-sign Alonso. Bregman could fit there if Alonso leaves and Vientos goes to first. Etc.

I currently have the Mets about $201MM from their franchise-record payroll (2023). They're going to be ........ active. Haha.
Kirby Yates
1:29
What kind of contract am I getting after my dominant season?
Steve Adams
1:31
He's 37 (38 in March) and walked 12% of his opponents. I'm the low guy on Yates and had him around 1/10. Most of the rest of the MLBTR team thinks he'll be closer to 15.

There's zero precedent for a reliever this old getting a good multi-year deal in free agency. Closest comp is the Rockies giving Daniel Bard a two-year, $19MM extension at the same age, and that blew up on them in a major way.
Burnes
1:31
I had a spirited debate with a friend regarding Burnes' number. I thought 275 but he thought he may not even clear 200. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
1:34
Burnes is a guy we all agree feels like someone who should get that huge contract based on name value and vibes, but the actual results aren't nearly as dominant as they once were. He's basically striking hitters out at a league-average level now. Command and swinging-strike rate are good but not elite.

Given those two extremes (sub-200 and 275+), I would call sub-200 likelier, though I think he'll end up in the low 200s somewhere.

But the general point ... this is not the same Corbin Burnes who K'ed more than a third of his opponents and dominated his way to a Cy Young.
Kyle
1:34
Does Tommy Edman complicate the expectation that the Dodgers will pursue Adames? I feel like there’s enough uncertainty around Adames long term that having Tommy one more year means they won’t sign him
Steve Adams
1:36
Edman can play anywhere, so no, I don't think there's much correlation there. I would say the bigger thing complicating the fit is just one of whether the Dodgers want another $140-180MM contract on the books
Chris
1:39
Given Jazz seems to have a cannon and has adapted well to 3B, seems Yanks better off getting a 2B.  Somebody like Rodgers who comes pretty cheap fit the bill, when they are gonna need to spend big on Soto and a 1B?
Steve Adams
1:43
I wouldn't say he has a cannon, but the arm was above average from 3B (85.3 mph average velo on the throws -- 16th in MLB). I would be fine leaving Jazz at 3B. The market doesn't typically treat second basemen well, so it'd be the more affordable spot to fill in deference to allocating money to Soto and/or a big 1B (Alonso, Walker, etc.) Could also go the affordable route at 1B as well, though. Josh Naylor won't have a prohibitive cost in a trade. Carlos Santana is a Gold Glove finalist again and proved he can still hit. Etc.
SouthJerseySteve
1:44
Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos & Taijuan Walker to the Astros for Kyle Tucker, Ryan Pressly & Chas McCormick. That would be a blockbuster, salaries almost equal out.
Steve Adams
1:44
Phillies fan, I take it?
1:45
The Astros aren't trading Tucker, and if they did, they'd want quite a bit more than the Phillies' spare parts/unwanted contracts (Castellanos, Walker). I applaud the ambition, but ... no, not happening.
Pete Alonso
1:45
O/U Total contract? I think 150 tops
Steve Adams
1:45
Under on 150
Jordan
1:45
Will the top trade candidate list & top free agent list be put behind a paywall as well this year?
Steve Adams
1:45
Nope
Stephe Atams
1:46
Which team goes wacko all on free agent spend this winter?
Steve Adams
1:49
Fun thing is that for the first time in awhile, all of the big-market teams have huge sums coming off the books and the FA class is filled with pretty big names. The Mets, Dodgers and Yankees (in order) are the three teams with the biggest gap between my projected payroll for their 2025 roster (making some non-tender assumptions) and their 2024 payrolls. White Sox are fourth, and clearly won't spend, but Giants are fifth.

The Mets, Nats, Tigers, Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees are all more than $100MM from their franchise-record marks. (White Sox as well, but, again.... haha)

Hopefully that leads to a hectic winter
Curious A's Fan
1:50
Are the A's going to be mentioned as a possible destination for any of the top free agents?
Steve Adams
1:51
They have literally no money on the books. So yeah, they'll spend some. They're not going to land any of the very top earners on the list, but once we get into the Nos. 30-50 range we're usually talking like $30MM in guaranteed money or less, so sure they'll be a fit for some back-half-of-the-list guys.
Jack Dumphy
1:52
Any chance the Tigers take a shot at Justin Verlander on a one year deal? 25 million enough to get it done?
Steve Adams
1:53
I don't think anyone's giving Verlander $25MM after how brutal the end of his season looked. I'd be wary of giving him half that. He's still Justin Verlander, so he'll probably get an eight-figure guarantee and tons of incentives, but he was a mess late in the year.

Tigers make sense, sure, but so do plenty of other contenders.
Josh Naylo
1:54
If not probative where do you see his value?
Steve Adams
1:57
Naylor's projected to make around $12MM in arbitration. He'd command a higher AAV in free agency on a multi-year deal, but how much higher? Not a ton. Teams will see surplus value, but not the type of surplus value where you're sending any kind of high-end prospect to get him.

Darragh and I talked about this on the podcast episode we recorded today (out tomorrow). He brought up Mark Canha, who got traded at the onset of last offseason and cost the Tigers a middle relief prospect. Naylor is better, of course, and younger. But the gap isn't enormous. Canha was a steady/solid 2-3 WAR guy. Naylor was like 2.5 WAR this season but could probably be viewed as a 3-4 win guy with a more consistent season (his bat fell off a bit in the second half).

He's going to get a couple midlevel prospects, or maybe some kind of back-of-the-rotation SP who's been up and down and not yet established himself. The kind of guy who maybe becomes a SP4 but also maybe just lands in the bullpen.
Captain Dunsel
1:57
The negative value of Walker ofsets any positive value the others have.
Steve Adams
1:58
Castellanos' value is just as negative as Walker's probably. If not, it's close.
Steve
1:58
Alex Bohm is pretty good.
Steve Adams
1:59
Alec Bohm destroys lefties, holds his own against righties, and has typically been a poor defender at third. He got better with the glove this year.

He's a fine player. Phillies fans love him because he picks up a lot of RBIs. That's largely indicative of the players around him, though, and no team is going to give up anything extra in a trade because of his RBI totals.
Alex Anthopoulos
2:00
In retrospect, did I make a mistake trading William Contreras for Murphy?
Steve Adams
2:01
Probably, but not as big as the A's trading Contreras for Esteury Ruiz, so hey, there's that.

Also, the Brewers are the best team in MLB at improving catcher defense, so who knows ... we might be sitting here saying Contreras can't catch and the Braves need an upgrade defensively.
wkkortas
2:01
I've read where the Pirates could/should trade Jared Jones (apparently you can have too much pitching?) So could they or should they?
Steve Adams
2:02
I love Jared Jones. Keep him. Extend him. Skenes+Jones+Keller with Chandler, Ashcraft, Harrington, etc. on the way is fun.
Jimmy Ryan
2:02
It's pretty obvious that the cardinals are doing some rebuilding/retooling. But how long do you think this retool lasts, and how many players end up on the trading block this winter/trade deadline?
Steve Adams
2:03
Cardnals I can see being traded: Helsley, Fedde (those two are virtual locks), Romero, Gray, Arenado, Contreras, Donovan, Gorman, Mikolas, Matz
Noot too, I suppose
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