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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/8/24
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Motown
3:14
With their recent success, do the Tigers spend big this offseason and become truly competitive?
Steve Adams
3:15
I don't know that they're going to go out and sign Corbin Burnes or anything, but they have a pretty pristine long-term payroll outlook and should be emboldened by this year's playoff berth. They should be fairly aggressive in free agency
Chris
3:15
Has Gleyber done enough to get a QO? Not tons on the FA mkt and not sure they can trust it to some combo of Peraza and Vivas (both of whom are out of options).  3B mkt also looks weak if they were to move Jazz to 2B
Steve Adams
3:16
If Torres gets a QO he should/will insta-accept it. The Yankees know that, too, and aren't going to offer one. I imagine the play is to move Jazz back to second and then explore the trade market for third base options.
Feury
3:17
Why dont smaller market temas like the Brewers use the Dodgers strategy (high aav on a shorter deal) with Willy Adames? The Crew had 13 rookies this year, their payroll was low, even with a 3 yr/75mil contract for Adames, the Brewers will be in their usual payroll range. Is it the MLBPA that discourages this?
Steve Adams
3:18
Adames will get a $25MM AAV (or close to it) over six or seven years. If he preferred to go short-term, high AAV, you'd have to do better than that on a three-year deal. I doubt the MLBPA would discourage it, but most guys tend to prefer the longer deals. Adames, for instance, would be 32 at the end of a three-year deal, and his earning power as a 32-year-old selling what most teams believe will be decline years isn't going to be nearly as high as it is ahead of his age-29 season.
John Means
3:19
Twist in the wind for a year, or do you see someone buying out his TJS year?
Steve Adams
3:19
Could get a cheap two-year deal, I guess, but he's pitched so seldom in recent years that it's probably better to just follow the Matthew Boyd route and wait until he's healthy
Rox
3:20
Rockies obviously aren’t going anywhere. Should they trade Marquez, even though they won’t?
Steve Adams
3:22
They should trade a good chunk of their roster but, as you said, won't. I don't think Marquez's value is particularly strong right now. He probably isn't getting $10MM on the open market right now. Plus, his deal calls for $2MM bonuses for 30 and 60 days on the roster, so he's really more like a $14MM pickup. I don't think many teams are clamoring to take that on after he's pitched 24 innings in 2023-24.
He's quite talented, but that's too steep a price given the uncertainty surrounding him at the moment.
GaBlue
3:22
Tigers extend Skubal this offseason, how long how much?
Steve Adams
3:25
Doubt it. He's a Boras client two years from free agency and on the cusp of being named AL Cy Young. He'd have to shatter the precedent for his service class, which currently stands at Mitch Keller's $73MM deal. I imagine Skubal and Boras would be looking for $200MM+ at this point.... something like $22-25MM for his final two arb years and then $30MM+ per free agent year.

I expect he'll reach the market in two years.
TB GM
3:26
I can’t afford Brandon Lowe anymore. Would he have a market?
Steve Adams
3:26
They can afford him. But at $10.5MM, so can basically any team, and he has another affordable club option for 2026. He'll be a very attractive trade candidate, and I do expect him to be moved.
Scuffy Mcgee
3:27
What do you think a Yoan Moncada deal looks like
Steve Adams
3:27
One year and a few million dollars with plenty of incentives
2025 Hot Stove
3:27
Who do you anticipate will be the top trade candidates this offseason?
Steve Adams
3:29
A few off the top of my head: Jesus Luzardo, Ryan Helsley, Brent Rooker, Devin Williams, Zack Littell, David Bednar
Royals
3:29
Will the royals spend after turning things around?
Steve Adams
3:29
They spent over $100MM last winter!
Free Agent Predictions
3:29
When will the free agent predictions be out? Who do you see Max Fried signing with?
Steve Adams
3:30
We usually publish them shortly after the World Series wraps up -- once we know who's receiving qualifying offers (but before the decisions on those QOs are due)
Jonny Venters
3:30
Why are we so sure the Yankees and Mets are the favorites to sign Soto? Correct me if I'm wrong, but given that both teams are in the highest luxury tax bracket (and have been for awhile), wouldn't they have to pay a 100% overage? Given that Soto is looking for $500 million +, that's a ridiculous amount for any one player... Even for a team like the Yankees or Meta
Steve Adams
3:32
I didn't say they're the favorites. I said they're among the surefire bidders. Luxury tax is calculated based on annual value and on a yearly basis. So, sure, the price is steep year to year, but if they ever duck below the tax line that would reset. Easier said than done when you're housing, say, long-term deals for Soto/Judge/Cole or for Soto/Lindor, but not impossible.

Yes, Soto would cost a team in the top tax bracket close to $100MM per year on a $45MM annual value. I also doubt the Yankees or Mets would care that much.
Houzer
3:32
who says no ... Tigers trade Jace Jung and Trey Sweeney to the Blue Jays for Bo Bichette ... IF he agrees to extend his deal with the Tigers. Then Javy is given a shot at 3B?
Steve Adams
3:33
They're not going to agree to a deal contingent on Bichette signing an extension. That sort of thing doesn't happen often -- practically never -- in MLB. I also wouldn't give up Jung and Sweeney for Bichette (although if you did know he was amenable to an extension that's not insanely priced, it's more palatable)
Trades
3:34
No Crochet or Robert?
Steve Adams
3:34
Oh yeah Crochet should be in there. Robert, I don't know. He really struggled this year. They have him for three more years so you could give him the first half of 2025 to rebuild some value.
Like I said, was just going off the cuff there. Knew I'd miss someone obvious, ha
Crochet is probably the No. 1 trade candidate of the offseason
Cards
3:35
You think Gibson and Lynn are bought out?
Steve Adams
3:35
A few weeks ago I'd have said Gibson's back, Lynn's out. But with the new direction, I think there's a good chance both options are declined, yeah.
Guest
3:36
Do you see the Red Sox trading Casas or Duran?
Steve Adams
3:38
I am baffled on a weekly basis by the constant suggestion from Red Sox fans of trading Jarren Duran. I know they have Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela. But Abreu is a platoon guy, Rafaela is all glove thus far (and can play the infield), and with Anthony you're basically hoping he turns into Duran.

I don't think either will be traded. And while I'm a big Casas believer, I'd move him before Duran, who would be in the MVP race this season were it not for outrageous seasons from Judge and BWJ.
Rangers
3:39
Looking at the rangers offseason outlook it seems yall are confident chafin will be bought out. Why? Great strikeout numbers and hes the best lefty in the rangers pen. 6.5m is no risk high reward
Steve Adams
3:40
Partly payroll concerns after they had spending questions last offseason and partly because the market hasn't valued Chafin at $6.5MM in either of the past two offseasons and he's now a year older. I think Chafin is underrated and would be a fine value at that price, but the market has failed to get there in consecutive offseasons now.
Trader Dave
3:41
is Tai Walker pitching for the Phillies next year or will some pitching starved team take a chance  on him and a cash dump from the Phils?
Steve Adams
3:41
I don't think it's impossible he's back or anything, but I think the Phillies will be motivated to find a change of scenery deal this winter.
Rockies
3:41
Resigning Bud Black to another year... doesn't that just show that the organization is satisfied with where they are at?  Maybe it is time for a change at GM.
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