JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/1/22

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/1/22

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Steve Adams

3:34

I think it'll be a bit less than that, but 10 wouldn't shock me. He's going to get a decent big league deal after what he did in his 150ish PAs in New York this year

Jordon

3:34

What is the max that Sean Manaea could get? 2 years? 15 million?

Steve Adams

3:36

Wildly underselling Manaea's earning power. Through late June he was the same high-3.00s/low-4.00s ERA guy he's always been. He had a bad second half, most of which was confined to a pair of eight-run drubbings at the hands of the Dodgers. I don't think that suddenly undoes the 3.75ish ERA and solid K-BB% he'd shown in the 800-odd innings leading up to this year's second half.

Edward

3:36

Do you know if a lot of MLB players read MLBTR? I know the players in the player chats said they did but is there a way you can tell?

Steve Adams

3:37

Sure. Tons of them follow us on Twitter, we see quotes talking about MLBTR in interviews plenty. I've met several at the Winter Meetings and other places who've said they and their teammates read us. When we had our podcast up and running, we had players on the show quite a bit.

Rockie future

3:38

With Nolan opting in to his contact and keeping Colorado on the hook, are their offseason plans ruined?

Steve Adams

3:38

Rox were paying at least another $20.5MM to the Cardinals regardless. And they're already projected for a record payroll before making a single move. I don't think the Arenado thing puts them in that much worse of a spot than they were already in.

rocco

3:39

i think the Rockies do nothing....maybe DFA a couple of guys then wait until spring to go thru the garbage bin

Steve Adams

3:41

Hey, to their credit, they spent nearly $200MM last winter. I think the Rockies are in an unenviable spot -- bloated payroll, bad MLB roster, poor farm system -- but I give them credit for continually trying rather than just being content to blow it up and not even try for four years. I wish more teams would just kind of stubbornly believe/insist that they're sitting on the makings of a winner.

I don't agree with most of the Rockies' moves and don't expect them to contend, but I appreciate that they try. I imagine they'll be more active than you're indicating this winter, though admittedly probably not to the same extent as last year.

Chad Kroeger

3:42

What did you dress up as for Halloween?

Steve Adams

3:43

Dressed up as a dad with a sick infant who thankfully got very few trick or treaters, haha

JR Ewing

3:43

Is there even a plan in Cincinnati? I'm sure David Bell will be sacrificed soon, but of course no manager could succeed with this mess.

Steve Adams

3:45

Yeah there's really nothing to pin on Bell here. The Reds spent and acquired talent to give him basically one chance at contending, in the shortened 2020 season. Everything since then has been slashing payroll. I think it's actually a credit to Bell that they were even close to contending in '21, when the team's most notable moves that offseason were to dump Raisel Iglesias for nothing, non-tender Archie Bradley and Curt Casali, etc.

Sarkara

3:45

Team that you're most surprised at their lack of success over the past few years? Angels? Mets?

Steve Adams

3:46

The Mets won 100+ games this year. I don't consider that a lack of success. The Angels have two of the best players we've ever seen and can't even scratch out a winning record. It's the Angels by a wide margin for me (sorry, Halo fans)

CHISOX FAN

3:47

Did the Sox just wind up settling for Grifol because they were the last opening?

Steve Adams

3:49

Settling for him as opposed to who? I don't know that they even interviewed Quatraro or Schumaker. The Phillies went internal. Jays went internal. The other guys the Sox interviewed didn't take positions elsewhere or anything -- they just liked what they heard when they spoke to Grifol.

Lots of Sox fans pouring gasoline all over this hire as if it's somehow hands down a worse move than hiring Espada, despite the fact that both Grifol and Espada have long been touted as future managers. Espada's team is winning now, sure, but I don't think the secret sauce for them has been that Joe Espada's their bench coach (no disrespect to him).

Plus, Grifol was on the Royals' staff for consecutive World Series runs in 2014-15 (including a 2015 WS win).

Rapunzel

3:51

Hanniger worth a QO?

Steve Adams

3:51

Borderline. I'd only make it if they actually wanted him at 19.65, since there's a chance he'd just take it. I think that's a reasonable price in a vacuum but a little bit less reasonable within the broader context of the Mariners' payroll.

Edward

3:52

Lance Lynn a dark horse trade candidate?

Steve Adams

3:53

Could see the Sox putting him out there if they really need to clear payroll, I suppose, but I don't think that's really the case -- and moving Lynn just opens a hole in the rotation for a team that doesn't have great depth.... so then you're just spending to replace him.

Yankees

3:53

If the Yankees were to trade Donaldson, what would be a realistic return?

Steve Adams

3:53

They'd need to eat most of the contract just to move him. He on his own doesn't have trade value, especially at that price.

Bo Toichi

3:54

Dodgers fan here, I wanted a good take on Trea Turner returning to LA. Personally I see him going to ATL. Anyone with some insight?

Steve Adams

3:55

There's no real reason the Dodgers can't bring him back, aside from the fact that outside of Mookie Betts, they've eschewed long-term contracts of this nature. Freeman's deal was six years, which is two years fewer than I expect Turner to get.

As for the Braves, I expect their payroll to increase but am wary of them splashing around to the extent that many fans (both in ATL and elsewhere) seem to expect, for reasons explained at greater length here just last week:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/a-closer-look-at-the-braves-pay...

3:56

That's not to say the Braves can't land a marquee player, but if there's any plan for any combination of one of the four shortstops (Swanson included), signing a top-end starter (they've been speculatively linked to deGrom and Verlander frequently) and extending Fried.... they're going to be up into the second bucket of luxury penalization in the blink of an eye.

Drew Friedman

3:56

would you give Tyler Anderson or Andrew Heaney a QO?

Steve Adams

3:58

I'd actually give it to Heaney and be fine with him accepting it. The ability to miss bats is legitimately elite with his new slider. You'd probably have to expect some IL time, but if you get 120-150 innings, it's a great value -- and if he ends up closer to this year's 75, it's still not a disaster.

I think whoever signs Heaney will do so as a starter, but I'd also like to just randomly throw out that I am 100% here for Andrew Heaney, ludicrous, strikeout-happy, short-stint reliever

Twins Chat

3:58

Coming soon???

Steve Adams

4:00

Yup will be this week. As I said in reply to the Mariners question above, you can download the Trade Rumors app and set notifications for the Twins or for MLBTR chats. Otherwise, the post promoting the chat will go live a few hours before the chat itself happens.

Guest

4:01

The 1 team with enough young high-end talent to acquire Alcantara

Steve Adams

4:02

I'd place the chances of Alcantara being traded at about 0.04%.

Gurdians

4:02

2/24m enough for Abreu?

Steve Adams

4:02

Closer to double that

(As in 2/40-something ... not 4/48)

Tell me

4:03

Rank these FA starters by how much it will cost to sign them: Anderson, Heaney, Manaea, Stripling, Syndergaard, Taillon

Steve Adams

4:06

We've been debating this group (plus a few others) because they're all kind of in the same general vicinity, earning-power-wise, for us. At the moment, I've got Manaea > Taillon > Heaney > Syndergaard > Anderson < Stripling

It's tempting to put Syndergaard at the top just because he is Noah f'ing Syndergaard, except... he really wasn't this year. Still has good command but the velo is in the tank, compared to his previous levels, and he's not really missing bats or overpowering anyone. He looked like a generic fourth starter this year. Maybe some team feels he'll get more of the velo back the further removed he gets from surgery, but he's already more than two years out and it just wasn't that great.

I still think there's a chance he tops this field just based on name value and the fact that even the weirdly boring 2022 version of Syndergaard was still a serviceable back-end guy, so you feel good about the floor.

Scott Boras

4:06

Can I get teams to ignore injury history and get Nimmo $120m?

Steve Adams

4:06

I think he'll clear $100MM -- not sold on 120, but I think I'm the low guy on Nimmo among the MLBTR staff at this point.

Silent K

4:07

Any chance Swanson takes a QO from the Braves, bets on himself and re-enters a more favorable shortstop market next season?

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