JotCast | Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/12/19

Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/12/19

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Steve Adams

3:13

Basically every contending team will be "in" to some extent on gauging the Betts asking price.

Thad Levine

3:14

It's my birthday today. Which free agent will be the biggest gift?

Steve Adams

3:14

Happy birthday to Twins GM Thad Levine -- apparently! Biggest free agent I picked to MN was Wheeler

Lou4hof184

3:14

Could the Marlins really be in on castellanos?

Steve Adams

3:17

They need to spend SOME money this winter; they're obligated by the collective bargaining agreement to allocate certain portions of their revenue-sharing resources to improving the on-field product. I don't know the exact financial specifics, but it's hard to field a $30MM payroll and say "yeah but we beefed up our facilities, hired some analytics folks, invested in more technology, etc." ... there were questions about this raised by the union when the Marlins had like a $60-70MM payroll. Right now they're projected to come in at 30-something.

Castellanos is in his prime, fills a need if they can live with the glove, is marketable as a Miami-area native, etc.

I question how willing he'd be to sign there after gushing repeatedly about how much he loved being in a pennant chase in Chicago, though.

Dan L.

3:17

If the Nats miss on Strasburg, you figure them to be the top suitor for Wheeler?

Steve Adams

3:17

If they don't re-sign Strasburg I assume they'll be in on Gerrit Cole.

3:18

Wheeler, too, sure.

Michigan Twins Fan

3:18

Can you see the Twins signing both Wheeler and Odorizzi?

Steve Adams

3:19

Sure -- they have buckets of payroll space. They could spend $50-60MM and still not even get back to the record payroll level they had in '18 when they weren't coming off an AL Central title.

Wrote about their financial flexibility at greater length here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/offseason-outlook-minnesota-twi...

Arte Moreno Angels owner

3:19

Why in the world would I spend 250 million + on Cole when my last big contract was a disaster?

Steve Adams

3:20

Because Albert Pujols' decline is unrelated to Gerrit Cole's long-term outlook, and the Angels have been squandering season after season of elite Mike Trout production for awhile now.

Anthony D

3:20

Is madbum no longer an ace or did he have a bad year (3.90era) because he was uninterested and can come back to a 3.25era on a contender?

Steve Adams

3:21

He's more middle-of-the-rotation at this point, I think. Still a good pitcher, but he's not the grim reaper he was during the 2014 World Series either.

Lance Lynn 2.0

3:21

Who is your surprise bargain pitcher this year, like Lance last year? I say Porcello. Thanks!

Steve Adams

3:22

Porcello, Michael Pineda both could fit that bill. Kyle Gibson maybe. Alex Wood if he can stay healthy (though that hasn't happened in awhile)

Jose

3:22

Doesn't Madbum make sense for the Phillies as they need a lefty AND reliable arms?

Steve Adams

3:23

Depends how serious their GM, Matt Klentak, was last week when he talked about needing to stop punting on draft picks

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/phillies-rumors-free-agents-qua...

3:24

I don't think they feel a strong need to add a left-hander, in particular. The Astros didn't even carry a LHP on their World Series roster.

That said, Hyun-Jin Ryu is left-handed and could be a huge rotation upgrade without requiring pick forfeiture.

Todd C

3:24

J Castro good pickup, platoon partner for T Flowers

Steve Adams

3:25

Sure I can see Castro going to the Braves. Angels, A's, Astros, White Sox, Rockies, Pirates, Rays and Brewers are all reasonable fits, too.

Tony Watson

3:26

Am I a free agent? I don't remember. (My agent handles that stuff.)

Steve Adams

3:26

Watson picked up his player option, which shocked me.

It only guarantees him $2.5MM -- I think he'd have done a lot better in free agency. Does have a bunch of incentives baked into that deal, but still.

3:27

Then again, who knows if some of these guys have lingering health issues, family concerns, etc. I think he could've done better in FA -- especially since there are so few quality lefties on the market this year -- but I think he will be OK financially, ha.

fan

3:28

Could a player sign a contract with a "must-trade" clause that states the signing team "must" trade the player within like a 6-month period if invoked by the player? I know it's very strange and would kill a team's leverage, but thinking about what happened in Miami where players wer eworried they'd be the last one left behind might make them more willing to re-sign or sign with bad teams.

Steve Adams

3:28

Don't think that anything like that is expressly forbidden by the CBA, but I wouldn't hold my breath on ever seeing such a clause happen either, ha

Guest

3:29

Thoughts on Astros stealing signs?

Steve Adams

3:32

I think it's a pretty notable story. I know it's more of a league-wide issue than just what's happened in Houston, but the on-record comments from Mike Fiers are eye-opening. And there have already been people who've gone and dug up video where you can audibly hear the trash-can banging right after a catcher puts an offspeed pitch down (Danny Farquhar detailed one such instance, and it was unearthed within minutes. Got to love the Internet)

The audio on this clip is just blatant. Man.

You can argue that sign-stealing has long been part of the game -- but this transcends peering in from second base to try to pick up signs by a magnitude of roughly a billion.

I think this is the game that Farquhar is talking about (video at a little after 2:58:30). The changeup sign is put down, then you can hear two bangs (even on the broadcast!), and then Farquhar steps off to switch the signs.
youtu.be/SftEFwbpmic?t=…

theathletic.com/1363451/2019/1…

As Travis Sawchik pointed out on Twitter right before this chat began, Houston hitters had the highest BB% and lowest K% in MLB... you can't say that this system didn't contribute heavily in that regard.

Obviously they're an insanely talented team, but this goes well beyond a runner on second peeking into the catcher and trying to pick up fastball vs. slider.

3:33

Whoa! I didn't know pasting a tweet in here would do that.

Learn something new every day.

OICU812

3:33

Do you think Kole Calhoun would be a good value for the Cardinals to replace Ozuna? Seems they had similar numbers last year.

Steve Adams

3:34

Very similar numbers and Calhoun has a better arm in the outfield, but I don't know that you can expect him to replicate that power when the only season he's ever shown it was in the Year of the Home Run.

But generally, sure ... a Calhoun, Corey Dickerson, etc. type in St. Louis isn't crazy to forecast.

Mr. Baseball

3:35

Do the Orioles trade Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini or Hanser Alberto this off-season?

Steve Adams

3:36

I think Villar will be moved, yeah. Alberto's value won't be all that high. Mancini's would be, but trading him comes with some pretty notable PR ramifications. I think a team like the Twins, Brewers, Rangers or Rays would be a really nice fit for him though, if someone wants to step up with a big offer. Still expect him to stay put.

Jaker

3:37

Do you think Rays could get a trade done for Jeff McNeil?

Steve Adams

3:37

Mets are pretty clearly going for it in 2020, which means I think McNeil stays put

Theo

3:38

Is Cesar Hernandez and his ~$10 million traded or is he non-tendered?

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