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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/16/21
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Steve Adams
2:30
They could just take on Andrus, release him, and still go get a better shortstop.

But by and large, this tactic is a lot more rare than people make it out to be, and the A's don't seem likely to be open to it. They're going to reduce payroll pretty substantially. If they trade some combination of Olson, Chapman, Montas, Manaea, Bassitt and Trivino, the payroll's going to organically be so low that the Andrus money is tolerable even for them.
2:31
I don't think you can squander trade value like Olson has right now by using him as a means of saving a few million bucks on Andrus.
Rick
2:31
Is Bryan Reynolds truly available and should he be?
Steve Adams
2:32
He's "available" in the sense that the Pirates are going to listen to any and all offers on him. I don't think he's "available" in the sense that there's any real motivation to move him. This isn't an A's/Chapman/Olson or a Reds/Castillo/Gray situation. Pirates will listen out of due diligence, but the asking price would justifiably be huge.
Anthopoulos
2:32
How hated will I be if Freeman walks?
Steve Adams
2:33
I think more anger would be directed at ownership
It's not Alex Anthopoulos's money, and he was the baseball ops leader who hit a home run on basically every deadline acquisition. Some people will blame him, but it's pretty clear this is an ownership call at this point.
Guest
2:34
How long do the cubs put up with Happ?  Inconsistency is the name of the game.  Need to trade him when he's hot.
Steve Adams
2:35
Any team acquiring him is going to know he runs hot and cold. It's true that his value would be higher if he were mashing heading into the deadline next year and that if he were hitting .200 with a .260 OBP it'd be nonexistent, but any team is going to know it's getting a useful but flawed player who's prone to huge slumps.
Mccutchen
2:35
Does Andrew get a job? Where?
Steve Adams
2:36
Cutch still destroys left-handed pitching and is beloved around the game. He'll get a one-year deal to go clobber lefties and play some occasional LF/RF for a contender. Maybe do some DH'ing.
Mark
2:37
Are the Cubs a legit contender for Corey Seager?
Steve Adams
2:37
I don't believe the Cubs are a legit contender for any high-priced free agent.
2:38
I'd have bought them as a possible suitor for E-Rod and could see them going after a Jon Gray or DeSclafani type to help stabilize the rotation, but anything beyond a three- or four-year deal is a bridge too far for me.
Brian
2:39
Unpopular opinion: there is no actual real trade market for Matt Chapman, who saw half his season batting stats wrecked by his hip surgery recovery and is at the lowest trade value in his career. Pair that with teams like the Mariners saying they aren't trading prospects this offseason. Olson for sure does have a market though, Chapman's will develop at the deadline I think.
Steve Adams
2:41
Chapman is one of the best defensive players in baseball, period.

He also still hit 27 homers with a 13% walk rate and hit for more power as the season wore on. Teams would still line up to get him, and some would probably feel they're buying low as he'll improve upon further distancing himself from hip surgery.
Even if Chapman is "only" his 2021 self, he's a 3-4 win player for the glove and power alone.
Tyler
2:42
Do you think George Kirby and Emerson Hancock fall under the category of the Mariners’ very top prospects?
Steve Adams
2:42
Yup
Bravos
2:42
Any chance both Soler & Rosario return?
Steve Adams
2:44
Seems feasible enough. Postseason heroics for Rosario notwithstanding, I don't think there'll be a hugely competitive market for him. Soler a bit more, especially with the DH coming to the NL (at least that's my expectation). I don't think either will have an outrageous asking price, but Freeman will dominate their offseason plans until he re-signs or (more shockingly) leaves. I think he'll stay.
David
2:44
Do you think that Flaherty will be looking at the berrios deal as the framework for an extension
Steve Adams
2:45
They're in different service brackets and Berrios has been far more durable but less effective at peak. It's a data point if Flaherty goes into next offseason without an extension, but it's not hugely relevant right now.
Adam
2:45
Frankie Montas for Edmundo Sosa a solid framework?
Steve Adams
2:45
I think that overstates Sosa's value.
The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen
2:46
Is it me, or does Conforto to the White Sox make too much sense not to happen (excessive price tag not withstanding)? RF, Lefty Bat, good hitters park, contender...
Steve Adams
2:46
Makes a ton of sense. I picked him there in our free agent predictions.
Bucco
2:46
Let's say the Pirates had unlimited $$ to spend this offseason (I know, hold your laughter). What type of free agent from this class, if any, would fit in with the profile of a rebuilding team with a window approaching in the next couple seasons, but very much not next year.
Steve Adams
2:47
Seiya Suzuki? In his prime, fills a need, would probably be signable at a lower AAV than comparable players (e.g. Avisail Garcia) who have MLB experience.
Otherwise, hey, Carlos Correa's 27 next year. If the money's no object, sure, sign Correa.
Tim
2:48
Conforto should have accepted QO. Coming off a down year, he won’t get the big contract he is looking for
Steve Adams
2:50
He can still get a strong one-year deal, and I think there'll be nice three- or possibly even four-year offers out there. He won't get the 5-6 years he might've with a big 2021 season, but maybe that's not as important to him as just cashing in on a nice multi-year deal right now and choosing where he wants to be.

The downside of rejecting a QO is never that great. A worst-case scenario sees his market collapse all the way to the $6.5MM or so that Moustakas had to settle for after rejecting a QO. Moose went out and got 11 the next year and then 4/64 from the Reds.
2:51
I don't think Conforto's market would ever dip below $10-12MM on a one-year deal, so he's risking $6-8MM for the chance to see if there's something like $20-50MM more out there in free agency.

And the fact that he's rejected after talking with other teams means he's doing so with a knowledge of how the market values him.
A lot of fans focus on the AAV of the QO. More players than not care about the overall guarantee and not the annual rate.
Houzer
2:53
Should the Tigers have signed Gray or Matz because of the QO implications?
Steve Adams
2:54
They've spent like 5 years stockpiling talent. I think they should've signed whoever they felt was the best long-term upgrade to the rotation and did just that. I prefer Rodriguez to Matz myself, and while Gray is quite intriguing to me, E-Rod feels a little safer.
Sonny42
2:54
Kyle Lewis has to be Seattle’s primary Dh next year right then maybe the following year if he can stay healthy for a season run him back out to the field
Steve Adams
2:55
I don't know if he'll be the primary DH, but I agree he's an obvious candidate to benefit from, say, 40+ games as the designated hitter. The mounting knee injuries are troublesome.
Gerard
2:56
What does a Marcus Stroman contract look like.. maybe the Cardinals
Steve Adams
2:56
I like him at 100-115MM or so over five years.
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