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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/21/23
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Pete frpm PP
1:25
Are the giants really in on Yamamoto ?? I mean Farhan wouldn't go 5/100 for Gausman - and Gausman WANTED to play in SF.  I find it hard to believe they would go 10/200
Steve Adams
1:26
Gausman was 31. Yamamoto is 25. And teams oftentimes like to chase the unknown in free agency. There's also some increased pressure on the Giants to make a bigger move after some shakier seasons and several high-profile FA misses.
redfraggle
1:27
0 Chance Kirby is worth all 3 of those players, let alone Holliday by himself.
Steve Adams
1:27
I dunno -- five years of Kirby straight up for Holliday would be a fun challenge. George Kirby is awesome and could have some Cy Young-caliber seasons ahead of him.
Twins fan
1:27
With Polanco having 2 years of team control left, would the Twins be open to trading Brooks Lee if it got them a SP like Kirby for example?
Steve Adams
1:28
I don't know why there are so many George Kirby trade questions, but I'll just say ... I don't think the Mariners are going to trade Kirby.
As for trading Brooks Lee for a controllable starter, if the SP had enough control/ceiling, sure I can see it, but I think it's likelier they just move Polanco
Much likelier
Paul
1:29
Any chance David Ross coaches 1st base for the Tigers this coming season?
Steve Adams
1:29
Reports on him have said he wants to manage again and isn't keen on taking a coaching role right away. Maybe in future offseasons, but not right now.
Contested
1:30
Neither Lynn nor Gibson was on your top 50 free agent list?
Steve Adams
1:30
No, we had them down in honorable mentions. We sort the list largely based on earning power, and the back end guys were in the $15MM range. We had Lynn and Gibby around $8-12MM, which is about where they landed.
Snarfle
1:31
So Cease and India are both likely on the move. Anyone else from that tier of quality you would throw in there? Feels like we don't have any real sellers at the moment other than maybe the White Sox.
Steve Adams
1:32
I don't think Cease and India are in the same bucket. Cease has far, far more trade value. We listed out our Top 25 offseason trade candidates last week:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/top-25-offseason-trade-candidat...
SI
1:32
Zero chance Ms take a straight prospect haul for Kirby. Just like the Os they are competing.
Steve Adams
1:33
Wasn't suggesting it was plausible -- just saying it's a fun hypothetical. Holliday is the No. 1 prospect in the game. Kirby is a young No. 2/borderline ace with five years of club control
Chris
1:33
If you were his agent, where would you tell Ohtani to sign?
Steve Adams
1:33
It's not up to the agent to tell the player where to sign. It's to negotiate the best offers possible for him and then let him choose among said offers.
Free Agent Man
1:33
Everyone at MLBTR picked the Cardinals to sign Nola.  How surprised were you that he went back to the Phillies?  Who do the Cards target now?
Steve Adams
1:35
Well, not everyone did. I put him on the Red Sox. But the fact that Darragh/Anthony/Tim all independently chose the Cardinals doesn't mean any of them thought Nola going back to Philly was unlikely. As we laid out in Nola's write-up on the Top 50, the Phillies were a totally plausible candidate to re-sign him all along.

I think a lot of people assume a lot more confidence in the team picks on our Top 50 than there actually is. We spend hours and hours trying to figure out the best possible contract prediction, but team-by-team picks are more of a crapshoot. We're sort of just saying "This is one of many plausible scenarios"
Mike Rizzo
1:35
Rowdy Tellez...Nick Senzel...Austin Meadows...Come on down! You're the next contestants on 1-year Nats contracts while we wait on the prospects?
Steve Adams
1:36
I feel like the Nats can aim a bit higher than that, although in a vacuum any one of those guys landing in DC is generally feasible. Senzel probably the most interesting with multiple years of club control left.
Larry the Lip
1:36
Would 3 years 24 million be enough for the Tigers to ink Seth Lugo?
Steve Adams
ChiSoxFan
1:37
What's your feeling on the Aaron Bummer trade for the 5 players from Braves> Good, Bad, Meh?
Steve Adams
1:39
The Braves were going to non-tender Soroka and Lopez anyway in all likelihood, so to me it's more about Bummer for Shuster, Shewmake and to a lesser extent Gowens. The White Sox are undoubtedly enamored of Bummer's ability to miss bats and generate grounders, feeling his ERA this past year was generally fluky based on the underlying skills. (I'd agree)

The Sox are plagued every single year by a lack of depth, so stockpiling it in this fashion is a nice pull for them.

The Braves basically gave up a possible fifth starter and a glove-first infield prospect here. I think it's generally fine for both clubs.
1:41
People reacted heavily to a 5-for-1 deal, especially since some of the players going to Chicago had name value, but the actual value isn't close to that name value.

I have little faith that Soroka will ever be healthy. Lopez gives Getz his glove-first SS (as does Shewmake). Maybe they get a 4/5 in Shuster. It's not an overwhelming group of players.
Nostradamas
1:41
What analytical pitching stat do you like to use to eval SP?
Steve Adams
1:43
There's no one single stat. I'm always curious about a pitcher's strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates -- as those are things largely in their control and that largely dictate positive results when all are average or better. But strikeout rate on its own isn't any kind of tell-all; you can look at swinging-strike and chase rates, you can drill into whiff rate on some lesser-used secondary pitches, spin rates, quality of contact (exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit rate, etc.) -- strand rate being fluky high or low ... there are dozens of numbers I'd take into consideration
Bart Doherty
1:44
Are the Diamondbacks really in the Yamamoto sweepstakes  ?
Steve Adams
1:45
They signed Greinke for 206.5MM eight or nine years ago. The young core is good and generally cost-controlled. The long-term payroll outlook is clean. I can see it as a special case -- but I don't think they're just going to be players for any free agent in the $200MM range
Scott Boras
1:45
Why do so many fans think my clients work for me? I keep reading comments on social media about how I "wouldn't allow" my clients to sign with certain teams.
Steve Adams
1:46
I don't know. The Boras hate is amusing to me. His job is to get the most money for his guys, and he's good at it. But if a player wants to sign a crappy deal, it's not like Boras stands in his way. Bogaerts signing that 6/120 with the Red Sox was insanely light at the time. It worked out in the long run, but he'd have been a 26-year-old free agent looking at $300MM+. But he wanted to stay in Boston, and at the end of the day, Boras works for the client and they took the deal.
1:47
I think a lot of fans still associate player salaries with ticket/concession prices and thus assume that Boras driving up the price for players is indirectly making baseball more expensive for them. But every agent does this -- they're just not all as outspoken -- and your ticket and your beer are going to cost the same in 2024 regardless of whether that team has a $300MM payroll or a $30MM payroll.
1:48
When I go to a Minnesota Wild game, it's not like I'm buying a $4 beer and a $2 meal at the concession stand because the NHL has a salary cap
Tim
1:49
If Angels lose Ohtani, they go after Yamamoto, your thoughts?
Steve Adams
1:49
If Ohtani signs first, yeah I think they'll be on Yamamoto and Snell
Cy
1:50
With the limited catcher market, Where do you see Garver signing.
Steve Adams
1:50
Garver's more of a DH than a catcher at this point anyway. I don't think anyone's signing him to catch 100 games. Best usage for him is probably catching 20-40 games a year and spending significant time at designated hitter.
James
1:50
What do you think of the Braves trading Travis D’Naud  (SP).  8 mil is a lot for a backup catcher.
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