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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/28/23
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Steve Adams
1:56
As it stands, you're right -- they have one reliable starter (Mitch Keller). That doesn't cut it. Period.
Justin
1:57
Tim Anderson on 1yr deal to the Jays to play second...similar to what Semien did?
Steve Adams
1:58
Think I'd just let Davis Schneider have his run and spend the money elsewhere. Could move Schneider to third, but there just wasn't a ton in TA's 2023 that looked good.
Kevin
1:58
Were you surprised the Cards did not trade any of their overstock OFer's and INFer's to acquire pitching?
Steve Adams
1:58
Mildly, especially with regard to the outfielders, but I assume they'll still be traded... just to address other needs (e.g. bullpen)
Redsfan43
1:59
Bauer said in a tweet he would not mind being with the Reds again.. Any chance that happens?>
Steve Adams
1:59
I'm sure he wouldn't mind being back with any MLB club. No one signed him last winter when they had the chance. Not sure anyone will this winter either.
Sam
2:00
Steve, who do you think is MLBTR's Top 50 FA that is most likely to sign with Minnesota?
Steve Adams
2:01
Tyler Mahle? They traded for him and clearly like the arm, and they've paid a couple guys some decent guaranteed money while rehabbing from TJS in recent years (Michael Pineda, Chris Paddack). Sign him for 2/20ish, hope you get September out of him in '24 and a full year in '25.
Crew fan
2:01
sorry to bring up Burnes again but recent reports state a 30% Chance he gets traded.  This has to be posturing on the Brewers part right?
Steve Adams
2:01
There's no "percentage" chance he gets traded. Someone will make a compelling offer, or they won't. Milwaukee isn't just going to take the best offer on the table if it's not good.
2:02
I'm not sure where the 30% "report" came from, but there's no way of reporting a percentage like that with any degree of certainty
Yogi
2:02
Do Freidman and boras hate each other?
Steve Adams
2:03
Doesn't matter if they do. Every baseball ops leader has to work with Boras, and vice versa. Even the teams that tend to veer away from Boras guys because they're not amenable to extensions (e.g. Braves) still sign/draft/trade for Boras guys from time to time.

Dodgers and Andrew Friedman are no different. I doubt Friedman liked Boras implying that the Dodgers mishandled Bellinger's injury. Doesn't mean he's going to swear off Boras clients
Yunior Severino
2:04
How likely am I to be "plan A" in the Twins' search for 1B help this winter?
Steve Adams
2:05
He's 24 with 36 games above Double-A and a 36% strikeout rate in that small AAA sample. Severino might be like, Plan G for the Twins at 1B.
They obviously like him -- added him to the 40-man  -- but he's not going to be penciled in as the go-to option there to begin the season
FenwayFanatic
2:05
When will the Red Sox make their next move? Will it be soon or more waiting?
Steve Adams
2:07
Probably like 15-20% of the questions I get are of this nature (regarding all 30 teams, not just Boston), and the simple answer is that Craig Breslow, who's running the Red Sox' baseball ops, probably doesn't know exactly when his next move will be. It's not like teams are making moves and strategically waiting weeks to unveil them, nor are they zeroed in on only one free agent/trade scenario that comes with a finite end in sight.

The Red Sox and every other team are simultaneously juggling like 30-40 different player acquisition scenarios, and many times it doesn't become clear they'll be pushed across the finish line until 24-36 hours before the deal is reached.
Guest
2:08
The problem with MLB pre-season is the same issue that MLB has in general.  Everything is too slow!!  Do you think Ohtani would consider NY?
Steve Adams
2:08
I don't consider the pace of MLB's offseason an issue at all.
I think it's boring in the NFL and NBA when 90% of free agents are off the board like 48 hours into the offseason.
A couple days of fun and then a whole bunch of nothing. I like my baseball to be a year-round thing.
Naoyuik Uwasawa
2:09
What kind of contract could I expect compared to the other Japanese arms on the market?
Steve Adams
2:10
A fraction. He throws 90-91 with a 17-18% strikeout rate in Japan. Maybe someone gives him like two years and $8-10MM total? That's just a guess, but if it's more than that, I'll be seriously surprised. He's a pretty fringey MLB arm.
Guest
2:12
What might Manual Margot return, if the Rays are not eating any of his salary?
Steve Adams
2:12
An ok reliever or a couple prospects you've probably never heard of
Justin H./Jerry D.
2:12
Make sense of the moves we are making right now? Are we clearing cash for a big signing or is the boss greedy? Who do you see as a realistic trade target for us?
Steve Adams
2:14
I thought the Suarez trade was ... fine, for the Mariners. His strikeout rate has climbed in alarming fashion, his power dipped last year, he'll turn 33 next summer. If the defense slips or the strikeouts tick upward anymore, he's going to be a pretty fungible player. I get that he was popular among fans, but Suarez needed a .315 BABIP to hit .232 last year -- that's a BABIP hike of 40 points over the prior four seasons. He's K'ed in 31% of his PAs over a two-year stretch. His contact rate on pitches in the zone dropped more than six percentage points over the past two seasons.
2:15
If ownership is placing some limitations on overall spending, I'm not sure that's where I want to allocate 7-8% of my payroll eithher
Beyond that, Carlos Vargas has huge Andres Munoz vibes, and the Mariners have done a better job than most teams of taking unknown relievers and making them into huge MLB contributors (Munoz, Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Justin Topa, etc. etc.)
2:16
Vargas' fastball in his limited MLB time was harder than all but (I think) seven MLB relievers (min.10 IP). And he had a near-60% grounder rate in AAA. Easy to be excited about that arm.
2:17
Now if the M's just pocket the extra $13MM from trading Suarez -- yeah, that sucks. They should do something with that to better the club in another area. But as the first step in a sequence of moves -- particularly after stating an understandable and I think correct goal of decreasing the team's strikeout rate -- that move works for me.
Positively Half St
2:19
Has the talent in Cuba started to dwindle? I can't recall the last time I heard of a defection that might change the fortune of an MLB team.
Steve Adams
2:19
Yariel Rodriguez is a free agent this winter and we have him signing for more than $30MM.
Guest
2:19
Do you think the Astros will trade Bregman
Steve Adams
2:19
Nope
2:21
Alright, I've got to wrap up. I'm on Twitter / X @Adams_Steve

Sorry for all the questions I couldn't get to, as always. You can consider signing up for our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription, which grants access to a weekly subscriber-only chat where your chances are obviously quite a bit higher. You'll also get weekly email analysis pieces from Anthony and me in your inbox (we're doing a series on potential markets for all the top free agents), ad-free viewing, access to MLBTR's Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. It starts at $2.99/month. You can learn more and sign up here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-11-28-23
Also, I'm pretty biased, but the Contract Tracker is pretty awesome and I haven't encountered anything like it anywhere else around the internet:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/our-mlb-contract-tracker-is-her...
2:22
We've had multiple agencies sign up for subscriptions just to get access to it. It's pretty cool, pretty powerful, and if you're into that sort of contract nerdery, I think it's worth checking out.
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