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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/10/21
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Kevin
11:52
Do you think the NYY are more likely to strike a deal with OAK for  a bat (Olsen, Murphy) or an arm (Bassit, Irvin, Manaea, Montas, Kapriellan)?
Steve Adams
11:53
I think Olson would (rightly) be their top priority, but not sure it has to be one or the other. They could double up and acquire both Olson and Manaea, for instance.
Catfish
11:54
Best fit and/or landing spot for Bryant? Thanks.
Steve Adams
11:57
I still like the Mariners as a fit, though that pushes Toro (a player I also like) to a bench role now that they've acquired Adam Frazier. That level of depth isn't necessarily a bad thing, however, and Frazier can spend some time in LF, while KB and France could also log time at 1B and DH.

The Rangers are an on-paper fit, but not sure we can plausibly call them a realistic landing spot for another nine-figure free agent.

Return to the Giants makes sense. Phillies, Blue Jays, White Sox (though they'd have to move Moncada to 2B or commit to KB as a corner OF). Rockies, but I don't see them actually meeting his asking price.
Nails Dykstra
11:57
Will Andrew Jones make it into the HOF?
Steve Adams
11:57
He should!
Falvine
11:58
What would a good contract extension look like  for Bassit for whoever acquires him from the A's?   I feel he may be willing to lock in a good guarentee early because of his age 33 and career earnings to date is 8.25 million.
Steve Adams
12:02
Well, he's made $8.75MM to date, but he also knows he's going to make $8-10MM in arbitration next season. It's not guaranteed just yet, but there's practically no scenario where he doesn't tack that onto the earnings.

He's a little bit of a tough guy to value, but buying out three free-agent years signs him through age-36, which seems reasonable. You'd rather have Bassitt than DeSclafani (3/36).

This is pretty off the cuff, so maybe my tune would change looking more in-depth at his stats, recent market comps, etc., but I'd throw out something like three free-agent years at $15-18MM per season. Add in the one arb year, and you're maybe at something in the four-year $60-64MM range on an extension? That puts him pretty well in line with recent deals for Mikolas and Eovaldi.
Armchair GM
12:03
What chance do you think the Astros are going to promote Pena, to be the starting SS, Carlos Correa's successor? If they did this, would you rule them out on having a contingency plan of signing Kris Bryant to play 3B and move Bregman to SS?
Steve Adams
12:07
If they're signing Bryant and moving Bregman to SS, I would say Pena becomes the contingency plan.

There's a chance they just use Diaz as a stopgap or sign a Simmons type and promote Pena midway through the year. I don't think Correa's coming back. I do think it's somewhat notable that their most recent offer to Correa ($160MM) is right in the ballpark of where a lot of people expect Bryant to sign.

The 'Stros have said they prefer to keep Bregman at 3B, for what it's worth, though I did see his recent comments that he thinks he can play the position at a high-level. (I don't doubt it, either.)
Kevin Bass
12:07
Might Correa sign a short term (3 year) with high AAV (33.5?) with opt out after year 2 with his original club?
Steve Adams
12:08
I don't think there's any way Correa signs a three-year deal.

In the theoretical sense, if he were to do it, that $33.5MM AAV is way light. Max Scherzer's AAV record should last all of a couple months if Correa says he's three years with opt-outs.
says he's willing to go*
Matt
12:09
The Rangers were a 100 loss team in '21. Can their big moves help get them in contention in '22, or are they still a few years away?
Steve Adams
12:09
I don't think they have enough immediate help coming from the farm to compete in 2022, but by 2023? Sure, it's plausible.
Mr Red
12:09
Do you think the compensation pick for losing Castellanos be a top 40 pick?
Steve Adams
12:10
It'll come after the first round and before Competitive Balance Round A if Castellanos signs for $50MM or more. And I expect him to more than double that mark, so yeah, it'll be a top-40 pick. Top 35 probably.
Rob Manfred
12:11
What's it gonna take for someone to take away my job?
Steve Adams
12:12
The 30 owners vote on whether to keep Manfred in his position. Those owners' profits and franchise values have increased under Manfred. He's not going anywhere anytime soon.
Bleacher Creature
12:13
who are the top 3 big bats that Zaidi could pursue to put in the middle of the Giants' lineup to produce runs...
Steve Adams
12:13
Best hitters on the market are probably Cruz (NL will likely have a DH), Castellanos, Schwarber, Bryant. Giants can afford any of them.
12:14
Well, Freeman as well (in terms of best hitters). But I don't think FF/SF is a viable match.
Rick Hahn
12:15
What will it take for me to get Brian Reynolds from Pittsburgh to play RF?
Steve Adams
12:15
Michael Kopech and then some? The cost for four years of Reynolds will be huge.
Grumpy Old Man
12:16
So, who are we (the fans) rooting for in the current lockout?  ie. who's side will result in a better product on the field overall?
Steve Adams
12:19
Root for a system that doesn't encourage tanking as much as the current one. Right now, the only path to acquiring amateur talent is by fielding a terrible team. The recent CBA stripped away free spending in international free agency, implemented a hard-slotting system in the draft, etc. The best way to build up a farm is to just completely suck for three-plus seasons, and that does a disservice not only to the fans in that market but also to fans throughout the league.

Hey, maybe it's fun once in awhile to go watch a game where the Orioles, who are barely fielding a Triple-A pitching staff, go serve up 16 runs to the Blue Jays. But at a certain point, watching non-competitive baseball sucks for spectators.
12:20
The Orioles have spent something like $10MM, total, in free agency over the past 36 months. Not trying to dump on them specifically, because other teams do this as well. But it's just bad all around when a quarter or a third of the league is barely even trying.
QUEUEBD
12:20
do you think there is any chance MLB makes the division series a best of 7 format? I would have loved to see 7 games between the Giants and Dodgers last year
Steve Adams
12:21
It's likelier that the field just expands entirely, but I'm sure the owners would also be amenable to lengthening a best-of-five series. At the end of the day, more games in the playoffs = more money in their pockets.
Arteam sucks
12:21
Does Canning, Adell, middle prospect bring back Castillo and gray
Steve Adams
12:23
No -- Cincinnati will want a wider base of prospects, and both Canning and Adell have had some MLB struggles already. (Not saying they don't have value, of course.) Getting both pitchers out of Cincinnati would require a trade package that would probably make you, as an Angels fan, legitimately upset.
Rick Hahn
12:24
Do you think Ketel Marte would cost me Kopech+ as well?
Steve Adams
12:25
I think any controllable star like that is going to prompt teams to ask about Kopech, yeah
twins fan
12:25
With Buxton signing at a relatively low price and Donaldson potentially on the trade block, is there any chance the Twins sneak into the Correa market and use guys like Royce Lewis to acquire pitching?
Steve Adams
12:28
I can't see them plopping down $300MM+ on a free agent, but that's largely because they've never done it before. At a certain point, there's a first time for a team to do everything.

The Twins make sense for Correa in that "less than 5% chance," dark-horse-y kind of way though, yeah. They have a need at SS, plenty of money -- they're $30MM+ from their franchise record and have a pretty clean long-term payroll slate -- and are likely still aiming to contend in the immediate future.

Is it likely they sign Correa, trade Royce Lewis, etc. etc.? Nah. But it at least makes sense on paper.

Also, to be clear, I don't think they need to move Donaldson to make the dollars work.
Answer me
12:28
Odds edwin diaz gets traded?
Steve Adams
12:28
I don't think it'll happen
Angels 1961
12:29
Do you think Rodon is healthy? Why not a QO?
Steve Adams
12:30
Rodon and Gray were two legitimately surprising non-QOs to me. There's nothing to suggest Rodon is seriously hurt, and I don't care to speculate to the contrary simply because a move (well, lack of a move) surprised me.
Jack
12:32
Do you think the Cubs are seriously in on Correa? Seems early in their rebuild to be spending big on free agents, but the stroman signing has me believing Correa is possible
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