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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/12/23
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ChiSox
1:45
Longtime Sox fan here - I'd hate to see Cease moved, but the team really needs another young bat it can build around. With that in mind, who would be the best fit for the team that they could get in a package for Cease? Kjerstad or Cowser? Gorman or Winn? Busch?
Steve Adams
1:46
I think the O's or Reds are the best on-paper fit in terms of the "superfluous" infield talent in their systems, but that doesn't mean they'll be comfortable giving up the players needed to make a trade happen.
Go Green, Go Soylent Green.
1:46
Brooks Lee for Glasnow, who says no?
Steve Adams
1:46
Twins
Golfing18now
1:47
Any news on the Twins front?  Seems like it has been a very quiet offseason thus far.  Somewhat frustrating they aren't trying to build on last season's success.
Steve Adams
1:48
They're reducing payroll because they don't have any idea what's happening with their broadcast rights. They're going to be a young lineup next year with Julien, Lewis, Wallner and probably Brooks Lee at some point all contributing. They'll likely wait for the market to pick up a bit and then be more active on the trade front, with Kepler, Polanco in particular standing as viable trade candidates. (Though I think Kyle Farmer is the single likeliest player to be moved by them)
Ryan
1:49
Which pitcher will cost more in trade-Bieber or Glasnow?
Steve Adams
1:49
Glasnow
Pat
1:51
Will Yamamoto's decision finally get the top of the market moving or will things then fall to Bellinger/Snell before picking up pace?
Steve Adams
1:51
I just don't think there's going to be one major deluge of signings like fans want. There'll come a time where we might be getting a few big names per week, but in terms of some NBA- or NFL-esque floodgates, that doesn't seem likely
Noether
1:52
Would the backlash have been the same if the Ohtani deal had been framed as ~44m deferred with interest, instead of 68m deferred without?
Steve Adams
1:53
A huge portion of the negative reaction is just the 700MM number in the first place, I think, and then misconceptions about the uniqueness of what the Dodgers are doing with the deferrals.

Again, we haven't seen it on this scale, but Max Scherzer's $210MM is being paid out over 14 years, including his entire $35MM salary during 2019's World Series season. I don't recall seeing this type of outrage when he signed.
Matt (Oceanside)
1:54
Reading the comment sections on Ohtani articles on this site has been true comedy. All of the complaints about Ohtani's contracts and how it's bad for baseball are really just a cheap disguise for "I'm mad my team didn't (or couldn't/wouldn't) get him. The sour grapes of fans(antics) is truly silly. Passion is one thing, but these ignorant comments attack the writers of this site like yourself and Tim for simply reporting the truth is laughable. Ohtani's contract benefits the Dodgers, sure, but there is only one player who could afford to defer that much of his contract, and the fact that he wanted to, speaks volumes of a person who is more interested in winning than pursuing every last dollar. Future value of money versus present value of money is a thing. What most people are really upset about is that their owner of whatever team they route for hasn't shown a decade-plus commitment to winning that could convince a player of Ohtani's stature to do what he did with the deferrals.
Steve Adams
1:55
I do think most people hating on the Ohtani contract and the Dodgers would, of course, be singing a different tune had their team done the exact same thing. But that's just the nature of fandom. I get it. And I've been doing this more than 10 years. I'm used to personal attacks against me, Tim, the site, etc. Maybe not quite to this extent, but that's to be expected given the nature of the player in question.
Bucs
1:56
Assuming he does well, does Skenes come up this year? Or is it dependent on how the bucs are doing?
Steve Adams
1:56
I think he'll be up in the summer, barring injury or terrible performance, etc.
kurt the hurt
1:56
Who is the front  runner to sign Bellinger ?
Steve Adams
1:57
I don't think there's one "front runner" right now, but the Giants and Jays seem like the best fits to me in terms of team need, payroll space, financial might, etc.
Cody
1:57
Anything on Snell?  Seems pretty quite for a reigning Cy Young Winner.
Steve Adams
1:57
Market has been largely focused on Ohtani, Yamamoto, etc. I imagine Snell and Montgomery will come to the forefront more prominently once Yamamoto signs.
1:58
Royals are finalizing a deal with Seth Lugo, per Anne Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com
Tmelt47
1:58
Convince me that the Ohtani contract isn’t gaming the luxury tax system.  No matter how you slice it, there are only a few teams that could make that contract work, and that disparity seems bad for the game.
Steve Adams
2:00
As I said before, I disagree with Tim's assertion that it's not a CBT circumvention. But teams circumvent the CBT every year. The thing that the Dodgers can do that other clubs couldn't is pay him the present-day equivalent of $460MM over ten years. Any team comfortable paying him that sum could've structured the deal this way. We don't know that they weren't trying to, in fact. It was reportedly Ohtani's idea in the first place, after all.
Jake
2:00
LOL and also not even mentioning the Cubs as best fits with Bellinger with the Giants and Jays? Come on now Steve... are you trolling...
Steve Adams
2:00
I don't think the Cubs will pay the type of money he's looking for/likely to receive
Glasnow
2:01
Interesting theory here... the Braves paid a lot of money to offload Gonzales and Stassi in exchange for PTBNLs. Do you think this could be similar to the Touki Touissaint acquisition years ago? Could they essentially be paying more of those players' salaries in order to get a better PTBNL.  If so, could they be smaller pieces of a Glasnow or Cease deal? Seems to me the Rays would be a club that would very much like to choose the PTBNL. Just a thought.
Steve Adams
2:02
I don't think the White Sox or Pirates would give up substantial prospects just to get short-term rentals of Gonzales and Stassi on the cheap. Time will tell, of course, but that'd surprise me.
Charlie Kelly
2:02
320/10 enough to get Yamamoto on the angels?
Steve Adams
2:02
I would certainly think so
#FireFarhan
2:03
Since Yamamoto already met with SF and they let him walk out without signing him and him visiting other teams now, it's pretty safe to say he's not signing with the Giants, right?
Steve Adams
2:03
No. He was always going to have in-person meetings with his top suitors and make his choice based on those. I don't think the Giants will end up signing him -- I imagine it'll be one of the NY clubs -- but him leaving their meeting without a contract (particularly before he'd met with other interested teams) isn't reflective of their chances.
Maggs30
2:05
Tigers sign another starter?
Steve Adams
2:05
Sign or acquire in a trade, yeah. I expect that.
Poster Boy
2:06
Assuming Yamamoto gets $300-$320, what is the posting fee to the Orix Buffalioes?
Steve Adams
2:07
Easiest way to remember is it's $9.375MM for the first $50MM + 15% of anything thereafter. So $46.875MM on a $300MM guarantee or $49.875MM on a $320MM guarantee.
I do wonder if all the $300MM speculation is *including* the posting fee.
2:08
I'd be surprised if someone spent 300 AND that near-$50MM posting fee, but hey, who knows
Duke
2:09
Bieber for Busch make sense for both Clev and LAD?
Steve Adams
2:10
I don't think one year of Bieber with diminished velocity, K/BB numbers going in the wrong direction, elbow problems, etc. is worth Michael Busch
In general, I think if/when Bieber gets traded, the general reaction to the trade package will be "Wait what? [My team] should've beaten that!"
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