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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/12/23
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Matt who is annoyed by contract
2:11
the reason people are mad at Ohtani contract is by deferring almost everything for the express purpose of evading the tax rules.  If half had been deferred and a lower total contract given to produce the same value nobody would have cared.  But this is so obviously being done to circumvent the rule it looks egregious.  And how it looks is what matters.
Steve Adams
2:12
The Dodgers are being taxed at the exact rate pretty much everyone expected -- mid- to upper-$40MMs. People are mad that the insane structure they came up with to get there was a majority-deferred $700MM, but that seems to be incorrectly assuming that the true market value for him would've been $70MM (or close to it) without deferrals.
2:13
The bigger thing they did was manipulate their actual bottom-line payroll for the next ten seasons. But people seem very hung up on the luxury tax component of it.
2:14
And again, this isn't new. Teams circumvent the CBT, backload contracts, etc. every year. The scope of it is unique. The sentiment is not. Broken record here, but Max Scherzer's entire $35MM salary was deferred in a season where the Nationals won the World Series and had Rendon, Corbin, Turner, Strasburg and several others on huge salaries. Where's the retroactive outrage over that?
2:15
(I don't think there should be any retroactive outrage, to be clear. The Nats, like the Dodgers, were operating within the agreed-upon rules of the CBA.)
Rick
2:15
Who is the next signing for the Dbacks, who would they be trying to acquire? Is it another Arm or more hitters??
Steve Adams
2:15
Think the preference now would be to add a bat.
Righty being preferable
Adams Steve
2:16
In a world where Seth Lugo gets 3 years/$45M, Cease's value continues to climb.
Steve Adams
2:16
Seth Lugo is good. That's a fine price, from my view.
steve
2:17
re: $680M deferral.  Theoretically, nothing stopping the Astros from signing Altuve, Alonso, Adames, Bregman, Soto, Burnes, Glasnow next off-season to $40M x 1 yr each ($280M) and deferring 95% of it ($266M) for 5 years and paying out over 10 years ($26.6M/yr).
Steve Adams
2:17
Correct -- except those players' willingness to take such a structure. I doubt most would be willing. Ohtani was.
Well, also I think you're grossly underselling how much some of them would command on a one-year deal. Soto in particular would be double that, or more.
Michael Wacha
2:18
I can get more $$$ than Lugo right?
Steve Adams
2:18
I'd rather have Lugo and think the market will feel similarly, but not overwhelmingly so. We had Lugo at 3/42 and Wacha at 3/36.
Snell
2:20
Where do you think Snellzilla pitches next year? Giants make alot of sense, any chance he takes a discount to stay in San Diego?
Steve Adams
2:21
Giants seem like a reach based on how the front office has previously balked at even a five-year deal for Gausman. I have a hard time picking a great fit for Snell, though, in part because I see him as a landmine. I wonder about maybe the Angels getting a little reactive and spending there to replace Ohtani with a 2x Cy Young winner, but Arte Moreno has also shied away from green-lighting this type of commitment to a pitcher. He's preferred to spend on position players.
I picked the Cardinals in our FA contest, but I obviously think that's going to be wrong now haha
2:22
Alright, I've got to wrap up. I'm on Twitter / X @Adams_Steve

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2:23
Thanks for joining! Have a great week
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