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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/17/24
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The Final Boss
1:59
White Sox saying that they they aren't trading Robert's stats, but his skills is kinda hilarious coming off a 0.5 war season.
Steve Adams
2:00
Not really. He was hurt all season. Everyone knows that skill-wise, Robert is an insane talent. Look at his '23 campaign. 38 homers, 20 steals, plus defense in CF, etc.
Josh Naylor
2:00
Odds i get traded before the season starts? High or lower with the Giminez trade
Steve Adams
2:01
Jason Lloyd with The Athletic wrote this week that he's getting the sense the chances have diminished as Cleveland has been nonplused with what's been offered (or something very closely to that effect -- I'm paraphrasing here)
Ken
2:01
More likely to happen: Springs stays healthy as a starting pitcher or Joe Boyle learns to throw strikes?
Steve Adams
2:01
Boyle has like 25 command on the 20-80 scale. Maybe in a relief role they can kind of rein it in. I don't have high hopes. Stuff is nasty though! I'd say Springs staying healthy has a better chance.
Scuffy Mcgee
2:02
I see countless times questions/answers using the phrase "swapping bad contracts" when it comes to players people think should be moved. Honestly how often does that happen? It seems pretty rare and not usually a typical outcome for anyone
Steve Adams
2:02
Yeah it's not common, but it's easy to dream up scenarios since the salary data is all public and whatnot.
Golden State Worrier
2:03
If the Angels make Mike Trout available/he requests a trade... how much cash are the Angels eating?
Steve Adams
2:04
A good amount. He's not getting six years and $213MM as a free agent right now -- nor anything close to it. And if you want to actually get something in return, you can't just pay him down to market value, you've got to create surplus value.

The Angels aren't going to eat like $100MM+ of the money Trout is owed. And even they were motivated to do so, the no-trade clause looms large.
Astros
2:05
Did we get good value for Kyle Tucker?   Do you see Bergman resigning on a short deal?
Steve Adams
2:05
I thought it was a good return. No too Bregman on a short-term deal
LA
2:05
who gets tanner scott ?
Steve Adams
2:05
Yankees love hard-throwing ground-ball relievers. I know they already got Devin Williams, but they're still my pick for Scott.
Connor M
2:06
With the first pick in the 2025 Draft, the Nationals select ________?
Steve Adams
2:07
Even the Nationals don't know the answer to that right now. You can take guesses -- Ethan Holliday! -- but the 2025 amateur season hasn't even happened yet.
Elias
2:07
burnes 3 years 100 million with opt out each year.  crazy he hasn't signed yet.  Is he waiting for Roki to sign?
Steve Adams
2:08
It's not at all crazy that he hasn't signed yet. It's common for top free agents to linger into the new year.

If Burnes were going three years with opt-outs, it'd be at higher AAVs than Scherzer/JV got... so more like 135-140 over three years.
I still think he'll just sign a seven- or eight-year deal for more than $220MM though.
Brandon
2:09
If the rumors of Roki not wanting to go to big market are true, do you think the Reds have a chance to sign him being a young, competitive, small market team
Steve Adams
2:10
They're not really rumors of Roki wanting a small market. His agent just said it was arguable/might make sense, but he didn't know for sure because he hadn't spoken to Sasaki at length about it yet, as all their focus had been on whether he'd be posted at all. I tried to convey as much in my writeup of his comments -- which Tim Dierkes and I were on hand for in Dallas -- last week:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/roki-sasaki-rumors-joel-wolfe-s...
Scot N
2:10
Do you think Corbin Burnes will wait until after Sasaki finds a home before he signs, to increase the amount of teams bidding on him.
Steve Adams
2:11
Sasaki and Burnes aren't related to one another. Even if a team feels like it only has one "open" rotation spot, that team would happily sign both (assuming they were a Burnes bidder in the first place). You're buying six years of control over Sasaki for peanuts... you're not going to tell Burnes to wait until that plays out  before making the deal with him.
Mr Burrito
2:12
Could Dustin May and Gavin Lux get Luis Robert out of Chicago? Dodgers could re-sign   K. Hernandez for bulk of ABs at 2B and Roberts could play RF or CF depending on pitching…Edman/Pages could rotate through 400 ABs each… Or is this an overpay?
Steve Adams
2:12
Robert is controlled (via two club options) longer than either May or Lux. That's not the kind of package the White Sox would want.
Tom Kelly's blues
2:12
I'll ask again. Paddack and Vazquez (17.5 million) for Jordan Montgomery (22 million) with both teams paying down $$$ to even the trade out. Who says no?
Steve Adams
2:14
The Twins' motivation in moving Vazquez and Paddack would be largely about freeing up payroll space to pursue other targets. Dumping them in exchange for a contract that's underwater itself doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Paddack's $7.5MM salary looks like a pittance in the current market ... they should be able to find a taker and get some actual talent back. Vazquez's deal is underwater but maybe only by $5MM or so.
Pat Burrell
2:14
Teams cannot give all of their bonus pool money to Sasaki, right? How much of a team's allotment can they give to one player? Also, how big of a setback would it be if a team were to put all their eggs in one basket w/Sasaki and not sign many/any other int'l FA? Thanks Steve!
Steve Adams
2:14
They can give all their money to Sasaki if they're willing to renege on all of the prior verbal agreements they had with teenage prospects from Latin America
Tiger Fan
2:14
How outrageous is it to think Harris might be serious about Sasaki?
Steve Adams
2:15
What's outrageous about a baseball ops leader saying he wants the player and hopes to convince him to seriously consider their market? It'd be more outrageous if a GM publicly stated, "Sasaki? Nah... we're good. Don't need him."
Larry
2:17
75 doubles, 36 homers, 194 RBI, 180 strikeouts. Say hello to Alec Bohm. He's better than your staff thinks.
Steve Adams
2:17
After Bohm went bananas with a .366/.438/.598 showing in April, he hit .258/.303/.410 over the final five months of play.
2:19
Bohm has about one good month every year, typically pummeling lefties in the process. He's an average-ish bat with sub-par walk rates and minimal defensive value. There's a reason he's not gaining traction on the market, and it's not just the Phils asking for too much.
Philthy Rotten
2:20
I think I’d remember 194 RBI out of Bohm.
Steve Adams
2:20
Those were his 2023-24  numbers -- should've specified
Squinky
2:20
Is Seattle willing to move Castillo because they have an inside track on sasaki?
Steve Adams
2:21
No, they're just listening because they have very limited money to spend, and because Castillo is their oldest/most expensive starter but his contract has more surplus value than expected in this hyper-aggressive market for free agent SPs.
2:23
Alright, I've got to call it this week. I'm on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.

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Enjoy the rest of the week, and since I won't chat before Friday of next week at the earliest, happy holidays to everyone!

Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!
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