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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/20/22
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Steve Adams
1:32
Yeah but shoulder troubles late in the season, a velocity dip and a qualifying offer aren't doing his market any favors.
He's the most talented SP out there at this point, though.
Fredbird
1:33
Cards solved their catching opening with Contreras.  What’s their next move?
Steve Adams
1:35
Bullpen could use a lefty. Chafin would look good there, with so many grounders and that defense behind him. Cardinals should also be on the lookout for pitching they can control beyond the 2023 season. Their entire rotation aside from Steven Matz is hitting free agency or retiring.
Rays have about 100 controllable SP options and want a lefty bat (probably an outfielder). Just saying.
Les Gomez
1:36
Where do the Mets end up sending McCann?
Steve Adams
1:38
Even they don't know the answer to that... random stab in the dark? Back to the Tigers, who can pay part of the salary and buy a mid-tier prospect along with him.
Confused sox fan
1:38
Is there a plan?  Why do they lowball stars like Betts, Xander and I assume now devers. Who wants to stay and come as a free agent if that’s the plan?
Steve Adams
1:39
Boston's offseason (and trade deadline) is every bit as confusing to me as to Red Sox fans everywhere. It's been a bad several months for them, and given recent history, it's hard to fathom them actually meeting Devers' asking price in extension talks.
Southsider
1:39
Yuli is just one year removed from a batting title. Will anyone want him? The White Sox?
Steve Adams
1:41
The White Sox let Abreu walk so they could move Andrew Vaughn to first base, move Eloy to DH and improve their defense. Signing Yuli just gums that all up again.

Cubs would make sense for Gurriel. Red Sox. But he's coming off a pretty rough year and is turning 39 in June. I imagine plenty of teams just project this was the beginning of a pronounced decline.
Greinke and Simba
1:41
Are we retiring?
Steve Adams
1:43
I expect Greinke to pitch again. Demand for Simmons will be quite a bit less than for Greinke. Maybe the Braves throw him a couple million for a nostalgia play to help ease Grissom in at SS. I don't think he's going back to the Twins or Angels. Red Sox could give him a cheap look, I suppose.
Hitterish
1:43
speaking of Lyles, do you think being a work horse, high innings pitcher , is a new market inefficiency
Steve Adams
1:43
Teams have always paid a decent price for innings. Lyles is signing the same type of deal Jason Vargas signed like eight years ago when he was also a mid-30s innings eater.
Max Fried
1:44
What would an extension look like?
Steve Adams
1:46
Very off-the-cuff, but I think you'd have to lock in $26MM+ per free agent season, plus buy out the two remaining arb years. We have him projected at 12.2MM next season, so let's say $30MM for the two arb seasons and something like 5/130 for the free-agent years to get to 7/160? Maybe he wants to juice it by a few million to push past Carlos Rodon, ha. Something in that range feels right, though.

It also feels like an extension the Braves aren't going to want to offer. They've locked up tons of their players, but generally at AAVs shy of $20MM (Riley being a slight exception). The Braves have preferred to extend guys before they reach the four-plus service mark at which Fried now sits.
Maybe they'll prove me wrong and make him an exception, but extending Fried now also likely sends them up to the second tier of luxury penalization, given the likely AAV on such a deal.
Hulk Hogan
1:46
Corbin for Donaldson.  Who says no?
Steve Adams
1:47
Yankees. They may not want Donaldson, but he's off the books next winter and is owed less than half of Corbin's remaining money. Plus Corbin's signed through 2024.
BlueJays2023
1:47
Did Vlad Jr. just have a down season or was the previous season an outlier?
Steve Adams
1:49
It says a lot about a player when .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers and a 132 wRC+ is a "down" season. That said, I do think he'll be better than that in 2023. You shouldn't expect a 48-homer, 166 wRC+ season out of him every year... that 2021 campaign will probably be one of his best when it's all said and done, but I still believe it's fair to expect him to fall somewhere between '21 and '22 this coming season.
Sparky Griswold
1:49
Let's suppose Machado opts out after '23... what would his next contract look like?
Steve Adams
1:50
I think he's all but a lock to opt out, barring some catastrophic injury or collapse at the plate.
1:51
Machado will be 31 this July, so he's not going to get one of the 11-, 12-, 13-year megadeals that are designed to skirt the luxury tax. He'll be the same age Judge was, and I think we'll be looking 7 to 9 years in length at a premium AAV, depending on the quality of his season
1:52
If he replicates the year he just had, or anything close, he'll have a chance to be the first player to ever ink multiple $300MM contracts, which would be a fun claim to fame.
1:53
Something like 8/300 ($37.5MM AAV) doesn't seem outlandish, although maybe in keeping with recent trends, a team would want to spread that commitment out over nine or ten years instead of eight. Again, it'll depend on how he performs this year, but even if he's "only" a five WAR player, he'll still be able to brreeze past $200MM on the open market, making the opt-out a given.
Trade
1:54
Keegan Thompson and Christopher Morel for Daulton Varsho?
Steve Adams
1:54
I don't think that's close for the D-backs, no.
Tarnell
1:54
With Devers and Boston “galaxies apart” we have to assume he’s going to become a free agent, right? What is he requesting? $300 million?
Steve Adams
1:55
Say you're 25-year-old Rafael Devers, one year from reaching free agency, and you just watched a 28-year-old Carlos Correa get $350MM, a 30-year-old Bogaerts get $280MM and a 29-year-old Turner get $300MM
I don't think 300 flat gets it done.
1:56
Hell, given his age and the willingness to tamp down AAV on ultra-long commitments now, he'll have a crack at 400 next winter.
Elvis Andrus
1:57
Am I going to play this year or should I just "leave the building"?
Steve Adams
1:57
He'll be someone's shortstop on a one- or even small two-year deal. Andrus was good in 2022.
Brook
1:58
Who should be Yankees LF this season?
Steve Adams
1:59
There's not a ton left in terms of particularly impactful players. A cheap deal for David Peralta would work, and if they want more defense and some upside, Max Kepler's numbers in Yankee Stadium, sans infield shifts, would likely jump pretty substantially.

Lots of talk about how the shift ban will benefit Kepler and others -- and I agree with it -- but I've lived in Minnesota long enough to see Kepler knock a bunch of liners off that right field wall that'd be homers at Yankee Stadium, too.
Guest
2:00
The Brewers have to find a third baseman, right?  Right?
Steve Adams
2:02
I think I feel like Luis Urias is a better option than most Brewers fans do, so perhaps you don't want to ask me that question, ha.

I like Urias and think he's a totally fine option there, with Turang coming up at 2B and Adames at shortstop.

The Brewers certainly COULD explore upgrades and consider just using Urias in a multi-position role, but I don't consider it a dire need and don't think they're going to outbid the field for Brandon Drury or whoever.
Showtime ohtani
2:03
What is the max deal next year, ohtani can sign for?
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