JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/30/24

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/30/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

jason

1:24

How many PA does it take to safely call a top prospect a busy?

Steve Adams

1:28

More than 90% of fans on the internet apparently want to give them. People calling Holliday a bust already are ridiculous.

Moreover, I don't think it's ever really fair to call someone a bust.

1) Just getting to the Majors is insanely hard and is an achievement in and of itself

2) Look at guys like Jose Bautista, Merrill Kelly, Adolis Garcia, Liam Hendriks, Yennier Cano, etc.

Even guys who get DFA'ed and/or released multiple times, have to find themselves pitching overseas, etc. -- still wind up reaching star status in the majors at times. There's no linear path to stardom, and anyone who makes the majors has some undeniable talent. Yeah there are guys who aren't that good and you can't just assume EVERYONE is a star waiting to happen. But you also can't/shouldn't expect that anyone who's ever going to be good will be there by 24-25 years old and if not, they're done for.

Ooklah the Mok

1:29

I read a lot about how Rob Thompson doesn't do a good job managing the pen, probably true. Can you name me a couple (current) managers who are known for doing a good job with their bullpen management?

Steve Adams

1:30

I think every MLB fanbase would say their manager is bad at managing the 'pen. In some cases it's true, but fans and pundits alike tend to have a selective memory and recency bias that causes them to hone in on recent blow-ups and to be overly critical of a manager for showing faith in a guy with some track record and letting him try to work through it.

Jake

1:30

How do the Orioles call up a top prospect like Heston Kjerstad and just let him sit on the bench?

Steve Adams

1:30

Yeah I'm pretty stunned by how they've used him.

Or rather, not used him.

Adam

1:32

Does Chris Taylor make it through the season without being DFA’ed? I get that they invested so much into him but the Dodgers seem to be in “win at all costs” mode and unfortunately it doesn’t seem like CT is doing much to help them achieve that goal

Steve Adams

1:34

Just historically speaking, most teams wait until the final year or so of a big contract to cut bait and release a veteran. That's not universal, though, and basically everything about Taylor's game is a mess. He was a roughly average bat just last year though -- including a terrible April in '23 as well -- so I imagine he'll get at least another month to turn things around. If he keeps up at THIS pace though, I don't see how the Dodgers could continue to roster him, even if he's signed through '25.

Chris

1:35

Glasnow has never thrown more than 120 innings and he's at 43 and we're not out of April. What do you see happening here?

Steve Adams

1:36

At some point, when the injury track record is this long, you kind just assume a guy's going to hit the IL for at least a few weeks. If he stays healthy enough to make 32-33 starts, that's a dilemma the Dodgers will very, very happily ponder

Scott Servais

1:36

Since you were talking earlier about how good the Mariners pitching is, if you had to pick one Mariners pitcher as your guess to win the AL CY, who would currently be your pick?

Steve Adams

1:37

I think Kirby is their most talented guy, so even though MIller's had the best start, with like 80-85% of the season left I'd still stick with him. But Miller's start has been awesome. Someone's asked a couple times if he's a darkhorse Cy Young candidate, to which I'd reply: I don't know how you can be a "dark horse" when you have a low-2.00s ERA and 29% strikeout rate with plus command through your first 35 innings.

Twins Fan

1:37

Were you disappointed to see Austin Martin get sent down? He’s kind of fun to watch.

Steve Adams

1:38

He'll be back. The Twins have tons of infield/outfield depth. Most of their "regulars" will end up with fewer PAs than a standard regular because of how aggressively they platoon and make defensive swaps. And they'll have lots of guys like Martin who end up at 300-400 PAs in a varied-usage role.

Pantagruel

1:39

Jo Adell has arrived or am I having an acid flashback?

Steve Adams

1:41

It's only like 60 PAs so I wouldn't declare that he's breaking out, but everything looks good right now. K's and SwStr are way down. Contact rate, particularly on pitches off the plate, is way up. Power is there. Tons of line-drives but not tons of barreled flies/homers yet.... it's an encouraging small sample for sure. Curious to see how the next 100-150 PAs play out but you have to like what you've seen

André René Roussimoff

1:41

In all fairness to the Red Sox, they did sign Lucas Giolito to deepen their rotation this off-season. They could have (should have) done more, but that's not nothing.

Steve Adams

1:44

They signed him after they traded Chris Sale. He didn't deepen the staff relative to the number of arms they had a year prior. You can certainly say Giolito -- who'd been one of the most durable arms in MLB -- had a better/more realistic chance at staying healthy than Sale. I'd agree with that. But they had plenty of options late in the offseason and never really added

Hell, there were still several notable arms on the market even after Giolito got hurt.

John

1:44

Is Gunnar Henderson your AL mvp favorite?

Steve Adams

1:45

If the season ended right now, sure he'd win it. I don't think there's such a thing as a "favorite" when there's five months left to play though. So much can happen.

Dallas Keuchel

1:45

Headed to Boston to help out the rotation?

Steve Adams

1:45

He's pitching with the Mariners' AAA affiliate

1:46

Who gets extended first: Kwan, (J) Naylor, or Manzardo?

Steve Adams

1:48

I don't think Josh Naylor's a likely extension candidate at this point. He's in the midst of what looks like a very legitimate breakout and is only controllable through 2025. He's already earning a decent $6.55MM salary and knows he's probably going to clear $10MM next year. There's not much pressure for him to sign.

Kwan, perhaps, but his skill set isn't one that's going to be paid super handsomely through arbitration anyhow. Ditto Manzardo, honestly, but I suppose I'd choose him as the likeliest just because he's the youngest and cheapest option for a Guardians club that is always facing payroll issues.

Spud

1:48

While the traditional trade deadline is months away, the Brewers starting pitching issues can't wait that long and the season will likely over by then. Meanwhile, the White Sox and others already know this season is a rebuild. Why wait until it's too late to make moves later when the need is now?

Steve Adams

1:50

Early asking price in trades is higher, as buyers have fewer places to turn. Sellers also are wary of not getting a big enough offer since most buying clubs aren't super-motivated yet.

I wish more teams would be active with trades of note early in the season, but today's front offices wait until the last possible second with virtually every deadline -- even mundane ones like the Rule 5 protection deadline in the offseason; you'll see like two teams announce their roster additions the day beforehand and about 28 make all of their moves three to five minutes prior to the deadline to set the roster.

1:51

It's just how they operate. From an MLBTR standpoint, it's super annoying haha -- "Here's 311 roster moves all in a span of 20 minutes. Have fun!"

They should really take us into consideration more, gosh.

ClarkeinEC

1:52

What do the Red Sox do with Bobby Dalbec? Back to the minors…trade…release? Not much trade value at the moment but I think he’s a change of scenery kind of guy.

Steve Adams

1:53

I think at some point he's just going to be designated for assignment. They still have a minor league option on him, but at a certain point you're going to prefer to give that 40-man spot to someone who doesn't have a 50% strikeout rate dating back to last year.

Bobbie

1:53

What are your thoughts on Quinn Priester? It is only one start, but maybe he has turned a corner?

Steve Adams

1:54

Little velo tick-up in his most recent start, which is nice. I think he ends up more as a back-of-the-rotation guy, but if he can become a dependable fourth/fifth starter -- that's really all the Bucs "need" him to be.

I mean, you can never have too many front-of-the-rotation types, but with Skenes, Jones and Keller ahead of him, that's already a nice 1-2-3.

squinky

1:55

Vlad Jr right now is tracking as an average first baseman. All he has going for him is name recognition. Is this his last season in Toronto?

Steve Adams

1:56

Name recognition and a .279/.355/.490 batting line with 130 home runs before turning 25 years old (the same age at which Aaron Judge was making his MLB debut)

1:58

I think people have wanted Vlad to be overrated for so long that they're kind of taking a victory lap now that he's having a pedestrian start to his season and was more "good" than "great" in 2023. The bump in K's is a little concerning, but he's averaging 93.4 mph off the bat with a 54% hard-hit rate.

Vladdy's a freak with supreme bat-to-ball skills and elite raw power. I don't think you're going to see him as "only" a league-average bat for much longer.

Little Poison

1:59

How bad are the Rays after being swept by the White Sox, the worst team in baseball?

Steve Adams

2:00

I don't think the Rays are bad, but their offense is in some clear need of improvement and the depth in the rotation is concerning. The Sox sweep is just a reminder that even bad teams -- and the White Sox are bad -- can beat any opponent on a given night.

I live in Minnesota and lots of people I know are downplaying MN's 8-game winning streak since it's against the White Sox and Angels. Obviously, that's not as impressive as if they'd beaten Baltimore, Atlanta and L.A. along the way, but there's something to be said for beating the teams you should.

1 4 1 swap

2:01

A year ago would you have swapped Guerrero Jr for Cease?

Steve Adams

2:01

I don't think the White Sox would have

Rally Sausage

2:01

Any chance I am the next Twins GM if Levine leaves this winter?

Connecting…