JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/14/23

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/14/23

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Bob

11:29

It seems like Luke Voit always feels left out only staying for a year with any team, what are his chances of being a mainstay with a team?

Jabroni

11:29

Where will Luke Voit find a home? Surprised at the seeming lack of interest in him.

Steve Adams

11:31

Bat hasn't been the same over the last two injury-plagued seasons, and he doesn't bring much any real defensive value to the table. I liked him as a buy-low guy last offseason when it looked clear that the Yankees no longer had a spot for him, but it's two straight pretty rough years for him at this point.

Greg

11:31

I believe Pittsburgh will be a .500 team this year. What are your thoughts on the Pirates?

Steve Adams

11:32

I'm buying that more for 2024. I don't think the moves they've made and the young talent coming up give them a 19-win improvement. I do expect they'll be better, but probably low- to mid-70s in win total.

Rocco Rox

11:33

do the Rockies finally lose 100 games this year?

Steve Adams

11:33

Will the Rockies lose 100+ games?

Yup (60.9% | 268 votes)

Nah (39.1% | 172 votes)

Total Votes: 440

JJ Bleday

11:34

I was drafted highly, regarded highly, reached the majors quickly, and then am now seen as a universal bust. Are my minors numbers that concerning or is it more about them paired with my limited time in the majors? Is there hope I can regain college form?

Steve Adams

11:37

I think if he were "universally" seen as a bust, the A's wouldn't have traded for him. That said, I think a lot of evaluators are really questioning the hit tool, and a 27% K rate in Triple-A doesn't paint a particularly rosy outlook. He also just ... didn't make hard contact in 2022. Lost year in 2020 hit some prospects harder than others; Bleday seems like one who might've really been impacted by it.

Mark

11:37

Do you see JBJ sign with Texas to play left field?

Steve Adams

11:38

Not on a guaranteed deal, but if the Rangers signed him to a minors contract and invited him to spring training, I guess I wouldn't be shocked. Wherever he goes, I think it's likelier to be a fourth outfielder, though

JBJ

11:39

Is he best option out there if Colas isn't ready?

Steve Adams

11:40

He's probably the best defender out there. Guess it depends what skill set you're looking for. I think Tyler Naquin's a better option as a passable corner defender who hits righties well.

Josh

11:40

Doritos: Nacho Cheese, Cool Ranch or other?

Steve Adams

11:40

Spicy Nacho

Astros

11:40

Who gets extended first, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, or Framber Valdez?

Steve Adams

11:43

Of that bunch, I'd lean Bregman, since he's a couple years from free agency and has already signed one deal. Valdez's agent said this week the two sides haven't spoken yet (will have something on the site about that early afternoon). Tucker, they've talked, but again he's sitting pretty with $10MM+ in career earnings already and basically zero shot of being non-tendered next year, so he knows he's got $5MM+ more on the way. I don't anticipate him taking a steep discount, and most of the deals the Braves (where Dana Brown came from) were pretty friendly to the team.

11:44

Tucker's first free-agent season will be his age-29 campaign. He's awesome, and he'll be a young free agent.

John

11:44

What would it probably take for the White Sox to sign Cease to an extension that buys out the last two years of arb and two seasons of FA? 4/$90 in the ballpark?

Steve Adams

11:50

Long answer to this, sorry... I don't find that scenario realistic for a variety of reasons. The White Sox wouldn't offer 4/90 (on top of the current 1/5.7 he has), because that's basically committing $32MMish annually for his first two free-agent seasons.

Cease might jump at the big AAV, but the structure also is rough for him. He's currently set to become a free agent before his 30th birthday; that'd push him back to 32. He'd have one big contract under his belt, but there's no guarantee he's ever getting that long-term, nine-figure deal at that point.

Contract extensions are generally based on precedent within a service class, and there's just no precedent for a deal of that nature. Cristian Javier just set a record for extension of a SP with 3+ years of service, and he came $26MM shy of 90 guaranteed.

11:51

It's just not an offer that I think would be made; offer Cease something like 5/75 and maybe the 3+ record gets him to bite, but he's already into his arbitration years, and I think he'd feel like he's selling himself short off a Cy Young caliber season.

Twins Fan

11:52

Who will be the Twins Opening Day first baseman? Kirilloff, Gallo, or someone else on/off the roster?

Steve Adams

11:52

Kirilloff would be my pick

Rangers13

11:52

If you were Bochy, in what order would you line up your starting 5 pitchers? Also assuming they do not trade for one doyou like THompson, Smith or Frazier best in LF?

Steve Adams

11:54

I don't think the order really matters much. It'll get thrown off quickly in the season due to injuries, weather, short outings that lead to spot starts, etc.

Of the in-house options, I guess Josh Smith in left field, but I have a hard time believing the Rangers would spend $800MM+ over two offseasons and then just roll with this LF mix. Why not sign Profar or trade for a decent corner bat at this point (e.g. Kepler)?

JJ Bleday

11:54

Who do you think won the JJ Bleday - AJ Puk deal? Will Bleday be the starting LF on opening day and does Puk have a chance to be the closer at some point in the season?

Steve Adams

11:55

I think declaring winners and losers so soon after a trade is short-sighted. I'd prefer the guy who's had MLB success in Puk, personally, but that doesn't mean I think the A's lost the trade. They clearly see something in Bleday they feel their player development staff can mold, and if that's the case, it might end up looking great for them or even being seen as a win-win deal.

I do think Puk has a chance to close at some point in '23, yes.

Criznit

11:56

Do you see any suitors for Amed Rosario at the moment? Or is he a guaranteed Guardian for the start of the 2023 season?

Steve Adams

11:57

At the beginning of the offseason I thought he was a lock to be moved, but most of the teams with SS needs have gone elsewhere and there's been little to no suggestion that he could be moved. I think he'll stay put at this point.

Babe

11:59

May be the Yanks are saving chips to chase Ohtani?

Steve Adams

11:59

I'm sure the Yankees will be chasing Ohtani. I don't think signing an affordable left fielder to a short-term deal would really impact that pursuit, though.

Rich

12:00

As giants fan I'd like them to concentrate on pitching. Keeping Webb and Harrison can you concoct a possible trade to get Burns from Brewers? Keep up great work.

Steve Adams

12:01

Burnes just isn't getting traded prior to the season. And by midseason, the evaluations of every team's system (and of Burnes himself) will have changed immeasurably from right now.

Broadly speaking, I think cases where "Team X cannot acquire Player Y without giving up prospect Z" are pretty rare.

B Snit’s Bongos

12:02

Who will accrue more WAR during their respective careers? Esteury Ruiz, OR William Contreras?

Steve Adams

12:02

Contreras gets my vote

Barry

12:02

So far the Jays seem content to roll out Biggio/Espinal/Merrifield/(plus Lopez or Barger) as a collective 2B/4th OF --is this feasible or will another move be made?

Steve Adams

12:03

Kaitlyn McGrath implied recently on The Athletic that a RHH fourth OF could still be an option. There aren't many pure righties out there, but Robbie Grossman crushes lefties and since all three of the Jays' regular OF (Kiermaier, Springer, Varsho) can play CF, they don't need their fourth OF to be CF capable.

12:04

All of which is to say, sure go sign Grossman. I think that's a decent fit.

69 Mets

12:04

Do you see the Mets trading away anyone

Steve Adams

12:04

Could try to dump Ruf somewhere

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