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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/2619
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Steve Adams
3:19
Because a contender is probably looking at Bumgarner's last two seasons and thinking he's not worth the huge asking price the Giants would need to seek in order to justify a trade to their fan base. Bumgarner hasn't pitched like an ace since 2016.
(I.e. -- Pre dirt bike shenanigans)
jamesess
3:20
It doesn't seem the M's have enough pitching depth to start the season.  With the question marks they have in the starting rotation is Elias and Millone enough insurance?
Steve Adams
3:24
I tend to agree. I know they're not exactly going all out to win this year (much like 9-12 other teams, give or take), but I still think they should add a rotation option or two on a minor league deal. Elias seems ticketed for a bullpen role anyway.

Right now they have Felix, Kikuchi, Gonzales, Leake and LeBlanc with Sheffield and Swanson in the upper Majors, plus I guess Povse and Milone. Not the worst idea to roll the dice on another reclamation guy even (Tillman or something). Wouldn't mind seeing them claim some SP options this spring, either, though I suppose they have a lower priority than teams like the Giants and others who are also looking to do the same.
Trader Phil
3:25
How's this for a hypothetical Harper-Dodgers short-term deal: 3 years, $127 million ($40M in 2019, $42M in 2020, $45M in 2021) with an opt out after each season? Worst case scenario, Harper still re-enters free agency before age 30.
Steve Adams
3:25
If Harper would take a deal like that, he'd already be in camp with the Dodgers.
3:29
I don't think he's signing a short-term deal, and if he does, I don't think $43MM per year gets it done. I realize that sounds insane to most people since we don't see players making that much, but we also shouldn't be comparing things to Trout and using him as some kind of barometer for what a $30MM player looks like. Trout is woefully underpaid relative to his on-field value -- by 20MM+.

I wish at some point a player like that would decide he wants to sign a one-year deal, in his prime, just to illustrate how insane the bidding for that type of player would get.
Kerhsaw's Shoulder
3:30
Will I be ready for opening day?
Steve Adams
3:31
If I could accurately answer that, I have to assume the Dodgers would be paying me to work for their medical team.

In a less snarky answer, ha, I have no idea. I don't think anyone, Kershaw included, really does. I certainly hope so. Baseball's more fun when he's healthy.
Kimbrel to the Twins
3:31
There were early reports that the Twins checked in. What length of term and AAV would it take for both sides to agree?
Steve Adams
3:32
They reportedly offered Grandal around $39-45MM. No reason to assume they value the two identically, but we know they were at least willing to put an offer like that out at one point. I think Kimbrel still wants an AAV record for relievers, though, and I can't see the Twins going to that length.
I like Kimbrel to the Phillies once the Harper saga mercifully ends.
Who Makes This Stuff Up
3:33
The Cubs inability to close games?    With both Strop and Morrow out, the Cubs bullpen gave up the lead and lost a game only twice in September last year, none after September 8–game 142.  Is there a reason people make up random facts that are not facts at all???
Steve Adams
3:34
There's zero reason to expect that to be repeatable over a larger sample; the Orioles won like 50 one-run games in one of their best years, when they actually had good relievers, and were nowhere close to that a year later with the same group. You can't take three weeks of game data and suggest -- especially in such a volatile context -- and just assume it plays out over a full season.

The Cubs' bullpen is legitimately worrisome.
CardsFan
3:35
I like the Cards extension of Mikolas, but think they need to add another proven arm for the rotation because of all the questions (Wacha, Reyes, Martinez, Waino)  and 2 of those being FA after this season.  Would really like to see them try to sign Keuchel for 3yrs.  Do you think Keuchel would take that and what would the AAV need to be?  Do you think the Cards would have any interest in a deal like this?
Steve Adams
3:37
I agree they should be in on Keuchel. Bernie Miklasz did a good piece on that recently.

When Boras took a three-year deal for his former Cy Young client late last winter, he got Arrieta $75MM. I don't think Keuchel has that same earning power, but I do think they'd want more than $20MM annually. I have zero idea if that's plausible, and at this point in the winter I have a hard time envisioning any FA other than Harper landing that type of annual salary, but to your general point I think they should be aiming for a three-year deal with Keuchel, yes.
Hmmm
3:38
You say Kimbrel to Philly? Does that mean you think Harper to LA is what will ultimately happen?
Steve Adams
3:38
Nah, I just think they can sign both. Doing so wouldn't even put them into the second luxury tax bracket.
Jon
3:39
I think all of these extensions are great for baseball. Fans like to identify with a player which is hard to do when players bounce around so much. Your thoughts on this....
Steve Adams
3:40
I think the number of extensions will increase dramatically this spring over years past because players are terrified of going to free agency, which is unequivocally a bad thing for baseball. Tension between the players and owners isn't good for the fans in any capacity.
Dayton Moore
3:41
What if I surprised everyone and we were the new team offer Harper over 300 million?  With Gordon coming off the books after this year...why not? I have surprised people before...
Steve Adams
3:41
(Royals GM Dayton Moore)
3:42
I'd be floored, but less so than with other "mystery" teams. The relationship between Scott Boras and Royals owner David Glass is extremely strong (KC seems to have had damn near as many Boras clients as the Nats over the years), and Moore has consistently talked about wanting a short rebuild.

I don't think it's them, of course, but that wouldn't shock me as much as like... the Pirates or A's, for instance.
Stevil
3:42
Colorado's payroll appears to be around the 150m mark now with Arenado's deal factored in. Are they going to have enough financial flexibility to add when/if needed at the deadline?
Steve Adams
3:43
I doubt ownership would've made the deal if it wasn't willing to then add the necessary pieces around him. A huge part of Arenado signing an extension, as he's long said, has been the Rox proving that they're committed to building a sustainable winner.
pumpsie
3:44
JDM complained the other day that we already know who's going to be in the playoffs in the AL. I'm sure a big selling feature from the Red Sox was a near-guarantee that he would be playing October baseball. Can you explain his line of thinking? He wants other teams to spend more money to win, yet he wants it to be ultimately futile?
Steve Adams
3:46
You can be on a team that looks like a runaway division favorite and still have more parity than we presently do throughout the league. He's generally right -- how many fan bases throughout the league, right now, know beyond a shadow of a doubt that their club won't make the playoffs?

And yeah, you can say no one thought the A's would make it last year, but there was reason to believe they'd be better than they'd been in recent seasons. When I look at the D-backs, Giants, Marlins, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays -- there are so many teams that you can just write off right now. I don't think that's good for fans, players or baseball in general.
Casey
3:46
Who is the baseball player in the MLBTR header?
Steve Adams
3:46
It's a generic image, truth be told, ha.
RONNIE
3:46
Will the Yankees sign Betances to a long term contract?
Steve Adams
3:46
I think there's a pretty good chance of them working something out.
Jet
3:46
Is Edwin Encarnacion getting traded or what?
Steve Adams
3:47
Probably not before Opening Day (barring an injury to a DH elsewhere in the AL)
But teams know he's going to be available from day one, so he could go early in the season.
Sean
3:48
Why is it bad for baseball that players don’t want to go to free agency? Shouldn’t that help teams keep their stars and lead to a more level playing field in the long run?
Steve Adams
3:49
Because the reason they don't want to go is they feel mistreated and undervalued by owners, which inherently means there are some very hotly contested CBA negotiations looming in 2021
Soxfan
3:49
What is the perception on a national level of how close the White Sox are from contending?
Steve Adams
3:49
Their rotation right now is Rodon, Ervin, Giolito, Reynaldo and Nova -- I don't think that's anywhere close to contending, especially since the depth behind it is lacking.
Ryan
3:50
If Wheeler has another year like he did last year does he get a Corbin type contract?
Steve Adams
3:51
Longer injury history and he'll be a year older as a free agent than Corbin was, so I'll take the under by a wide margin.
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