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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/27/24
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Andrew Freedom
1:31
What team do you think has had a under the radar good off-season? Royals come to mind for me.
Steve Adams
1:34
I don't think the Royals' offseason has been all that under the radar? They spent $109MM on free agents and signed their best player to a nearly $300MM extension. I also don't love some of the deals they gave out, though there's nothing egregiously bad among them or anything. I still think they're like a low- to mid-70s win team though.

Mariners have had a more subtle but solid offseason while working within some pretty tight budgetary parameters from ownership. Polanco's a great fit there. Mitch Garver is an underrated bat.
1:35
I don't love everything they've done, of course. Third base as a platoon between Rojas/Urias isn't exciting, and trading for Urias at all and tendering him at $5MM, only to see Gio Urshela sign for a third of that a couple months later is a tough look. But that was borderline impossible to foresee at the time.
Math4Ball
1:35
Why Yanks still talking to Snell.? Wouldn't it make more sense to focus on getting Cease?
Steve Adams
1:35
White Sox want Spencer Jones and have, by all accounts, not budged off their sky-high asks in talks with any teams this offseason. Yankees don't want to give up Jones.
BochysRetirementFund
1:36
Every great empire eventually falls. Starting to think the Boras allure to players might begin dwindling. Not obtaining deals assumed to happen, burning potential bridges with teams, players not having a team as Spring Training is underway, etc. Granted players truly have the greatest say whether they take a contract or not, but I'd imagine you hire a high profile agent like Scott to take that off their shoulders entirely. Am I going too deep into recency bias here, or will Boras not be the crown jewel of MLB agents sooner than later?
Steve Adams
1:39
Every time Boras has a client lingering out there people make suggestions like this. I don't really think it's true, and I don't think the notion that he's somehow handcuffing things this offseason is really all that accurate. Like you said, it's ultimately up to Snell if he wants to take 5/150 or 6/170ish from the Yankees, and apparently those weren't to his liking for whatever reason.

I also think that since these guys haven't signed, there's this perception that no one is offering anything. I imagine there are several teams that'd probably sign Jordan Montgomery for like 5/100 right now. Maybe that's not correct, but the fact that Monty hasn't found the $140-150 they were probably seeking doesn't mean the market for him is nonexistent -- it's not not there at the agreed-upon asking price. There'll be a point where that ask changes, as we just saw with Bellinger.
1:43
I also don't think Bellinger taking a short-term deal is really indicative of some grand failure. The MLBTR staff was chatting after he signed, and Tim Dierkes made the point that 3/80 with opt-outs is a better outcome than Bellinger signing for like 5/115. I agree with that. Even the $125-150MM range some people were floating just isn't a strong outcome for a 28-year-old coming off that type of season. The endgame was probably always $200MM+ or a short-term, opt-out-laden deal like this. And that type of plan is crafted with input from the player, of course.

If Bellinger replicates or even approximates his 2023 numbers, he'll end up getting that $200MM+ next offseason. If not, he'll go from non-tendered to $97.5MM over four years on the strength of one flawed bounceback season. (Last year's $17.5MM + the new $80MM)
Mike
1:43
I think the Mariners should jump on Chapman. I think that might put them in the playoffs with that rotation. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
1:43
Generally agree they're a good fit, but doesn't seem ownership is going to be willing to spend at that level.
Bozo
1:43
Pirates trade. Connor Joe to Redsox for pitching help—who says no?
Steve Adams
1:44
Don't think Connor Joe has the type of trade value to bring back meaningful, immediate pitching help
L Dub
1:44
Steve: Good afternoon. Do you believe the Marlins will stay with Avisail Garcia as DH, or pivot elsewhere?
Steve Adams
1:45
The contract will get him another look, but I doubt he'll have an espeically long leash. This isn't the same front office that signed him, and he's over halfway through the contract now.
Cardinal Fail
1:45
Why are there so many Cub's fans on the writing team at MLBTR?  Can we get a Cards fan for a true rivalry around the water cooler?
Steve Adams
1:46
Tim and Nick are the only Chicago guys on the site, and we've had Cardinal fans write for us before, ha. Also we don't have a water cooler since we're spread out all over North America!
Oriole fan
1:46
I really in my gut feel this is the year  that Tampa bay finished under 500.. too much talent especially pitching wise has been deleted.. what’s ur take?
Steve Adams
1:49
I don't think they'll be sub-.500, but this is as down as I've been on them in awhile. A Rene Pinto/Alex Jackson catching tandem seems insane. The rotation could really use another arm. Siri/Caballero/Pinto as the 7-9 hitters is ... not good.

I assume they'll have some player development successes that we don't see coming, since that happens every year, but I can't put them better than third in the division and might have them fourth right now.
Cliff
1:50
What do you think of these opt-out contracts? If the player has a bad year he opts to stay with his present club. If he has a good year he opts out and goes on the free agent market. The team loses if he has a good or bad year. His price goes up on the free agent market which now widens the gap even more between small and big market teams to be able to sign the free agent. The small market clubs and their fan base lose out and the excitement of signing one of the better free agents.
Steve Adams
1:52
You could flip this entire thing on its head and talk about how club options are bad for players. If the player has a good year, that option is viewed as a bargain by the team and picked up when he'd very clearly have greater earning power in free agency. If he has a bad year, they get to back out of the contract and send him on his way to take less than the option was.

Contracts are full of give and take from both sides. Yes, opt-outs are bad for teams, but club options are bad for players. It works both ways. Opt-outs (specifically multi-year opt-outs) are just newer and thus garner more scrutiny, I suppose.
Guest
1:52
Lefty reliever for Dodgers in horizon?
Steve Adams
1:53
There aren't a lot of great options out there. I liked their minor league deal with Justin Wilson. Could pair him with Vesia/Yarbrough.
Joey Bart
1:53
The "best shape of his life" is thrown around a lot during spring training, but honestly, Joey Bart does look good.  Does a good spring make it more likely he gets traded before Opening Day? Rays? Pirates?
Steve Adams
1:53
I'll be surprised if he opens the season with the Giants.
Tom Kelly's blues
1:54
I think the Twins have used the available $$$ wisely. What say you? Lorenzen or Clevinger will be a cherry on top.
Steve Adams
1:57
To an extent, I agree. Tendering Kyle Farmer and paying him $6MM as a part-time 2B/utility guy is a weird allocation of resources when they're cutting payroll to this extent, though. If they'd non-tendered him, found a different Polanco deal that didn't have them take back some DeSclafani money, and chosen not to sign Carlos Santana, you could be looking at $15MM+ to sign a better starting pitcher.

Maybe that's not a better and more well-rounded club. And there's plenty of Monday morning quarterbacking going on there as well. I think they've generally done fine, but a $6MM utilityman doesn't feel like a luxury this team should be keeping right now. Farmer's a solid player, it's just a lot relative to his expected role and their minimal offseason resources.
Adames
1:57
Am I a Brewer on opening day? If so, will I be a Brewer after the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
1:59
I think yes and yes. I expect the Brewers to be more competitive than most are giving them credit for, so I think Adames will be on the roster and be a part of at least a Wild Card contender in the run-up to the deadline. Brewers are a team that could and probably still will listen on him if they're only a fringe contender, but he's an easy qualifying offer candidate as well so they'll get some decent compensation for him even if/when he just walks as a free agent.
Trade
1:59
Of all the long term contracts with the Braves, which one is the most likely to be traded (down the road)?
Steve Adams
1:59
I don't view any of them that way. They're all reasonable, and the group is built to contend long term.
synth
1:59
If the giants get matt chapman could he possibly play SS?
Steve Adams
2:00
That feels like a weird, unnecessary and very "Giants" thing to do, so sure. I don't expect it, but would it shock me? No more than signing Jordan Hicks to be a starter.
Pirate Maximus
2:01
Is there a rh cf that the reds could still get? Friedl is great but there's no depth behind him
Steve Adams
2:01
Michael A. Taylor fits there and wouldn't break the bank.
NJ
2:02
How fun would it be if the Brewers swooped in and got Snell? They have been known to capitalize on collapsed player markets.
Steve Adams
2:03
This would be on a scale greater than they've ever swooped like that before, but yeah I'd love it. Fun, out-of-the-blue matches like that are great. Darragh McDonald has been saying he thinks they should sign Montgomery for awhile now.
Joe Carter deep to left field
2:04
Am I being overly pessimistic thinking that the jays have missed their window with this group?  They have maxed their budget, still don’t have a 3b, questions at 2b, and seem worse than they were at the end of last season….which already was not good enough.   Should they be focused on locking up Bo, trading Vladdy and aiming for a reset?
Steve Adams
2:07
I don't think they've missed their window, but it's fair to say it hasn't been capitalized on as much as I expected. There's a ton of talent there, and it's not hard to see them winning another Wild Card berth this season.

At the same time, you can't look at this team and say it's definitively better than in 2023. It's largely the same group, minus Chapman and Belt but plus IKF, Justin Turner and Yariel Rodriguez.

I find it a little odd that a team that was willing to chase both Ohtani and Yamamoto is going to end up spending all of $70MM in free agency overall, with only about $35MM of that counting against 2024 payroll (and with some of it -- Kevin Kiermaier -- just being allocated to the status quo)
I like the Kiermaier deal, though. I thought he'd get two years or at least a much bigger raise on a one-year deal coming off the season he had. Nice deal for the Jays.
Joe
2:08
How worried should Orioles fans be about Kyle Bradish? It’s obviously not good but is there still a decent chance he can come back by May and pitch at a high level?
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