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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/28/23
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Ethan
2:34
Since it appears that the pitch clock clearly is effective, MLB should in turn do away with the extra inning runner rule. I'm not hoping to see extra innings rushed if the first nine innings are played in under 2.5 hours
Steve Adams
2:36
Yeah, I've wondered this too. It's been obvious since they found a way to shoehorn the rule in that they were always going to keep it, but the need to hasten those extra innings is less dire with the pitch clock accelerating the standard nine frames.

I think adding a ghost runner or whatever you want to call the thing has merit at some point -- although the sicko in me loves the silly grinds of 14-, 15- and 16-inning games. But starting the tenth inning immediately with the free runner seems silly.

At least wait until the 12th or even the 11th. But nothing I can do about it, so I'll just adjust and quietly grumble to myself when things hit extra innings, haha.
Willies here
2:37
Is Joey Bart out of options? If not, how many left? (I can imagine the Giants opening the season with Sabol and Perez at catcher.)
Steve Adams
2:37
He's got a minor league option remaining, but I have a harder time envisioning Perez/Sabol as the Opening Day tandem than you do.
Union of Very Bad Programmers
2:38
Which team has the biggest drop off in wins from last year?
Steve Adams
2:40
I don't love betting against the Dodgers, but I'd probably pick them, just because 111 is always hard to repeat, no matter how good the team, and they're banking on a lot of young guys (one of whom was just lost for the season).

The Dodgers' depth is perennially amazing, and they're so good at development that I think some of the growing pains will be overstated. That said, the outfield looks particularly rough right now, with Trayce Thompson and David Peralta (coming off back surgery and a pair of pedestrian seasons) in line for meaningful at-bats early in the year.
Yo
2:40
will we ever see a salary floor in MLB? it's annoying pay so much for tickets/food and see the owners pocketing our money and millions they get from the other owners. I would like to see a floor of 100 mil, and cap of 400 mil
Steve Adams
2:41
I don't think we'll ever see a cap or a floor without a significant labor stoppage. The two parties won't compromise on it.
Yo
2:41
10-12 with runner on 1st, 13th+ with runner on 2nd?
Steve Adams
2:42
You could sell me more on 10th: bases empty, 11th: runner on 1st, 12th onward:  runner on 2nd

But again, it matters little. The rule is in place.
DIsgruntled Reds Fan
2:42
Any justification in Reds ownership  not spending money with all of the revenue sharing and tv money they are getting?
Steve Adams
2:45
I said this a few weeks back, but yeah -- Reds fans should be annoyed. The team just hasn't made much of an investment despite a decent group of interesting young players. Lodolo/Greene is a real nice pair of starters to build around (no disrespect to Ashcraft, I just have him a notable step below), India's a solid player, they have plenty of interesting prospects coming up ... it just feels like they should've done more than sign Wil Myers and Luke Weaver then throw their hands up and say "Well we just don't have the money."

Phil Castellini's comments about running the Reds like a non-profit are insulting to Reds fans, who deserve better. They barely have $80MM on the books in 2023, despite huge revenues from playoff deals with FOX/TBS/ESPN, streaming rights from Apple/Peacock (all of that combined to pay each team around $65MM last year), and the $900MM sale of the remaining stake in BAMTech to Disney.
2:46
Of course the Reds can't compete with the Yankees, Mets, etc. when those teams own their own networks (YES, SNY). There is a real disparity there.
2:48
But there's also a middle ground, and $80MM doesn't feel like it should be it. The Reds will tell you it is, and we can't see their books, so that's fine. But we can see that each team pocketed somewhere in the vicinity of $90-95MM between national TV, national streaming rights and BAMTech. And that's before selling a single ticket or reaping a single dollar from local broadcast rights.

I don't know how the dying RSN model is going to impact things long term, and perhaps the Reds are bracing for that, but it feels like they're just leaning into last year's tone-deaf "Where else are you gonna go?" comments (again from Phil Castellini) -- if not in public comments then through the actions of the team (or lack thereof)
Mike Moustakis
2:49
Which team is gonna take a chance on letting the Moose getting loose?
Steve Adams
2:52
Three straight years of declining performance, and Jon Heyman wrote recently that he might need an MRI before signing... though he didn't specify what the issue was. Regardless, I just don't see a huge market for him. He's 34 and hasn't been a decidedly above-average hitter since 2019. I doubt many, if any, teams still view him as a viable option at third base.

I don't have a great fit. Maybe the Jays can sign him to a minor league deal and send him to AAA as insurance in case Belt gets hurt? But even then, does a player with 11+ years of MLB experience like Moose has want to go play in Triple-A at 34 (35 in Sept.)?

We can't know that for sure. It's not like Boras has been hyping him through the media or anything.
Juan Soto
2:53
When do the Padres take care of me now that Manny’s gotten paid?  With all the draft capitol they spent to bring me in, the Padres can’t let me walk. Do they go 15 years/ $500 Million?
Steve Adams
2:54
They're going to try, but Soto already turned down a huge number from the Nationals -- I feel like he's just pretty intent on getting to free agency.
Spud
2:54
After acquiring Voit, the Brewers have effectively squeezed Huira out, Who would be interested in his bat, and for what kind of return?
Steve Adams
2:54
Voit's on a non-roster deal. Hiura's still on the 40-man. I don't agree with the premise, but to your end question, I don't think Hiura has a lot of trade value.
Gary Ward
2:55
Could the Glasnow injury open the door for Taj Bradley to crack the staff out of spring training?
Steve Adams
2:56
He's on the 40, so can't rule it out. But Bradley still only has 28 starts above A-ball and just 59 innings in AAA. And the Rays have alternatives like Patino, Chirinos, Fleming -- plus early opportunities for some Openers (Beeks). And the early off-games will let them skip the five spot in the rotation a few times anyhow.
2:57
So... shorter answer: yeah, but I still think it's likelier he's in AAA to begin the season.
Twining
2:58
Is any pitching staff more homogenized than the Twins?  Take your stat of choice and any guy could finish 1-5 and it wouldn't be a surprise.  I don't know if that's good or bad but at least the floor has been raised significantly over past seasons
Steve Adams
2:59
It's a collection of pretty comparable mid-rotation arms, yeah. I think the Twins quietly have one of the deeper rotations in the game but probably lack the top-end talent that many of the best teams out there have. By and large, I like their offseason though, and think they'll be in the mix in the AL Central along with Cleveland and Chicago.
William
3:00
How long do the Reds have to wait until they have a chance to be competitive? Elly de La Cruz is in the wings (late season call-up?). Votto is off the books after the season. India, Greene, and Lodolo all have nowhere to go but up. Alexis Díaz is shutting it down in the bullpen. I don’t think it will be more than three more seasons.
Steve Adams
3:03
Three more seasons would be brutal. I think if everyone stays healthy, yeah you could see them closer to competing in 2024 and certainly by 2025. But the health is a key caveat there, and Greene/Lodolo have both had some injury troubles already.

It also depends on when/whether ownership will really spend. If they look at it like "Ok, Moose and Votto off the books beginning in 2024, and Lodolo/Greene/Elly (and maybe some of Steer/Noelvi/Williamson etc.) are showing some potential, let's supplement this group!" then great.

If their response to the core emerging is to push payroll from like $80MM to $100MM, that's not so great ... even with Moose/Votto off the books.
Guardians Fan
3:03
With Daniel Espino’s recent injury, do the Guardians consider signing Bieber long term? When pitchers have shoulder injuries, it could really hurt their stock. Espino is still a really good pitcher and still has a good chance to be the ace of Cleveland in future years, but this injury could make that longer. Shane Bieber already is the ace and could be an ace for several more years. Triston McKenzie also could be a viable ace but I’d much rather prefer Bieber so that’s why I think an extension is necessary. Do you agree or do you think they should ride with Espino and McKenzie?
Steve Adams
3:06
I don't think Espino's injury has much bearing on Bieber's contract status. In general, I think the time to sign Bieber to a reasonably affordable deal has kind of passed, so I don't expect Cleveland to do it. They kept Jose Ramirez, and fans should be thrilled about that, but Bieber is earning $10MM this season, can realistically expect 15+ in 2024, and then he's a free agent at 29 going on 30.

The stuff has trended down, but the track record is strong and he has to be cognizant of the likely $100MM+ contract he's looking at if he can maintain this level of performance.
3:09
As long as he's healthy, yeah I think there's a decent chance of it. He'll need to beat $21MM (or, if he reaches 160 innings this season, that number will jump to $23MM).

Either way, I think he can justifiably expect to do so heading into his age-33 season -- even if it means sacrificing some AAV to get the larger guarantee. And it's not even a given that he'll HAVE to do that. Chris Bassitt just got 3/63 heading into his age-34 season.
Derek
3:09
Of the three young Nats starters, who’s the most likely #1? Gray, Gore, or Cavalli?
Steve Adams
3:14
I'm not sure any of them are No. 1 starters. Gore and Cavalli have some injury concern. Gray, even when he was ranked as a super-premium prospect, was ranked as such largely because of his floor and high-probability success as a mid-rotation guy.

I can see the argument for Gore, who got out to a monster start in 2022 before stumbling in June and was at one point the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. But he's had a really big roller-coaster run to this point, losing his mechanics to the point that the Padres sent him to their spring facility and pulled him from games for an effective reset in 2021.

Can also see the argument for Cavalli, whose raw stuff is off the charts good but has plenty of bullpen/injury risk.
Huh
I just realized the Stroman question didn't publish, ha
3:15
So.. here we go.
Chet Lemon
3:15
Will Stroman opt out after the season?
Steve Adams
3:15
And then here's the answer for that:

As long as he's healthy, yeah I think there's a decent chance of it. He'll need to beat $21MM (or, if he reaches 160 innings this season, that number will jump to $23MM).

Either way, I think he can justifiably expect to do so heading into his age-33 season -- even if it means sacrificing some AAV to get the larger guarantee. And it's not even a given that he'll HAVE to do that. Chris Bassitt just got 3/63 heading into his age-34 season.
Sorry about that. Not sure what happened there.
Yo adrian
3:15
do some management prioritize extending players earlier where others go year to year?
Steve Adams
3:16
Definitely. You look at how the Braves have clearly emphasized doing this and how their now-former VP of scouting, Dana Brown, spoke about wanting to do the same in Houston after being hired as Astros GM (and quickly began to do so, with Cristian Javier).

Now juxtapose that with the A's, who haven't inked a pre-arb player to an extension since Sean Doolittle like a decade ago. It's a clear philosophical thing.
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