JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/4/22

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/4/22

Steve Adams

11:31

Hey all -- apologies that I wasn't able to get to a chat on Tuesday this week. I've got an hour right now, so let's do a makeup one!

Heathw19

11:32

What do the Phillies do with CF? Something creative?

Steve Adams

11:33

There's nothing left in free agency that's much of a difference-maker. I like them as a trade partner with the A's (Ramon Laureano) or Rays (Kevin Kiermaier). The A's work particularly well, because Matt Chapman would be such a huge difference-maker for a Phillies team that is just perennially a defensive wasteland. (Ditto Laureano, in that regard)

Carlos correa

11:34

Where do I play next year ? Chicago ?

Steve Adams

11:36

Correa and Scott Boras don't know the answer to that question, nor does the GM/president/owner of the team that's eventually going to sign him. I have a hard time seeing the Cubs go to such great lengths. Admittedly, I didn't think Chicago would do much of anything of note in free agency this winter, so the Stroman deal surprised me. That said, it felt like more of an opportunistic "Well, if we can get him and keep the term to three years, let's do this" approach. Correa is going to want 10+ and $340MM+ ... I can't see the Cubs committing it.

I picked the Phillies in our Top 50 free agent predictions, and because of the lack of clarity on his market, I've just been stubbornly sticking to them.

11:37

I wrote about this awhile back for Front Office subscribers, but the team that *should* sign Correa (and won't) is the Orioles. Completely blank payroll slate once Davis is off the books after this season. Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall all up and contributing this season (maybe 2023 for Hall). Correa's only 27, so he'll have plenty of prime years that coincide with the rebuild, etc.

It's a fun thought exercise, though I will probably faint due to the shock if it actually did happen.

Cashman

11:37

What do you the Yankees do to add a pitcher ? First base?

Steve Adams

11:39

There's so much talk about the Yankees and shortstop/first base, but I'm with you (and am in the process of writing about this right now, so it'll be up either today or Monday) ... they definitely need more SP depth. They have an abundance of candidates, but basically nothing in terms of established, reliable innings beyond Cole and (sort of) Montgomery. If Cole gets hurt, they're in such serious trouble -- more so than a lot of other win-now teams would be if they lost their top arm.

11:40

As with the Phillies question before... we know they're going to be talking to Oakland about Olson. Try to get Manaea added into that mix, perhaps? Bassitt?

Secret Weapon

11:41

I think the most frustrating part of the lockout is that it had been on the horizon for almost two years and neither side was willing to do anything. Now, we're 2 weeks from the planned start of Spring Training and there's still nothing. Please tell me there's hope!

Steve Adams

11:42

I think there's zero hope Spring Training starts on time, and I'm not optimistic about the regular season, either.

The most frustrating thing for me is that the league framed the lockout as a "necessity" when it was not, and then they basically told the MLBPA "Ok, we'll send you a counter to this initial proposal in like ... six weeks. Maybe seven"

So much wasted time as a means of drawing a hard line. It's nonsensical and it's just a middle finger to the fans.

11:43

To be clear, it's not solely on the league. The MLBPA asked for some things it knew would never be considered, and their recent "concession" to come down $5MM on their initial ask from the pre-arb bonus pool wasn't really a concession at all.

That said, it does seem they've been more willing to negotiate. As was the case in return-to-play talks in 2020, virtually everything MLB has "offered" to entice the players with one hand has involved them pulling something back with the other.

The distrust between them is so rampant. I don't know how we're going to get a resolution, but I don't expect it to be soon.

Tiger Fan

11:44

Seems like many think Baddoo is destined for a platoon role. How could he buck that in 22?

Steve Adams

11:45

Hopefully just with more reps against LHP. Have to keep in mind that he barely played at all in 2019-20 and hadn't played above A-ball before making his MLB debut. It was a legitimate surprise to see him taken, given the layoff he'd had.

Rick the Hormone Monster

11:45

Would the Cards really spend big on a reliever after getting burned by Miller and Leone and Holland and Cecil?

Steve Adams

11:47

"What're you gonna do baby?" (Appreciate the Big Mouth reference!)

Just because you had bad luck in one area in the past doesn't mean it'll repeat itself. Granted, that's been the case with most of the Cardinals' big-time relief additions (although they didn't pay Leone anything, so not sure he belongs on this list).

I don't think there are many relievers left who'll command that type of salary, outside of Kenley Jansen, who I don't think will end up there. But as long as the medicals are fine, I wouldn't shy away from a two-year deal with Joe Kelly or Collin McHugh just because other multi-year deals didn't go their way. Every pitcher is different.

Brent

11:48

What is one rule change from the last few years that you can’t get behind?

Steve Adams

11:49

I despise the runner on second to begin extra innings. Generally speaking, none of the rule changes have really bothered me. I was in favor of protecting second basemen and catchers from devastating slides. The three-batter minimum hasn't worked as they'd hoped but doesn't upset me. Limiting mound visits? I actually like that and never notice it.

The runner on 2B fundamentally changes how the game is played in a manner that these other tweaks have not.

Guest

11:50

Alejandro Kirk for Max Meyer: Good trade for everybody? Or great trade for everybody?

Steve Adams

11:51

It doesn't immediately help the Blue Jays, as Meyer could probably benefit from some Triple-A time. Also, with the Marlins already acquiring Jacob Stallings (without giving up elite prospects), parting with a high-end pitching prospect like Meyer doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

Hated Rule

11:52

I get your runner on second take----do you think there is a chance that they could step ladder into something like "if we get to the 12th inning we start with a runner on second."

Steve Adams

11:52

If they want to push it back to the 12th or 13th inning and start doing gimmicky things to prevent 19-inning marathons, I'm more open to that. Doing it immediately in the 10th just sucks.

JOG

11:53

You are tackling a hard forecast on where Correa lands. How about a smaller forecast for him on whether he will need a one-year contract (33-35 million), and hit the market after next season, when it is not flooded with top shortstops, and then go for a long-term contract?

Steve Adams

11:53

Correa is looking for 33-35MM on a ten- or eleven-year deal. If he signs for one year it's going to be for like $45-50MM, if not more. (And I don't think he's going to sign for one year)

Thunderdan

11:54

Drew Rasmussen was a pleasant surprise last season. I just figured he's continue as a RP based on his injury history but TB took a chance to stretch him out and it paid off. What are the chances (assuming good health) that Rasmussen develops into a top of the rotation talent?

Steve Adams

11:55

He's a 2x Tommy John guy so I would temper those expectations. He was a nice unexpected success last year in that role, but I feel like he'll eventually end up in the 'pen -- perhaps working multi-inning chunks.

Good Old Days

11:55

I feel the only way to slowly get away for the three true outcome nature of the game is to limit the number of pitchers you can have on an active roster. ANY chance limiting active, available pitchers is up for discussion???

Steve Adams

11:57

I think the only plausible way to move away from the three true outcomes is to, in some capacity, limit infield shifting (which I don't love, even though I'd like to see more balls in play). Neither the league nor the MLBPA would want to limit the number of pitchers any more than they currently do (half the roster)... if you cap them at 10 pitchers or something, all you're doing is furthering the chance for injuries, and neither side wants that.

Stormy

11:57

Can Suzuki negotiate with teams ( not sign a contract) since he was not on a 40 man last year?

Steve Adams

11:59

I don't believe so, though who knows how strictly teams have honored the bans on negotiating with free agents. They're obviously still talking to minor league free agents, for instance, and many of the agents who rep those guys have big league free agents as well.

Anyhow, Suzuki is looking to sign a Major League deal, so if everyone is following the rules of the lockout/transaction freeze, his negotiations should have been halted as well.

Nick Krall

11:59

I’m in need of a couple young pitchers who are close to being ready to go along with Greene and Lodolo. I also need a SS/3B or centerfielder. Would Luis Castillo get me Marte, Hancock and Williamson from Seattle or would I have to give up a little more?

Steve Adams

11:59

I don't think Castillo would get you Noelvi Marte alone, let alone the other two.

Keep the Shift

12:00

Getting rid of the shift wouldn't stop pull hitting. It'd encourage it further. Why should we punish the defense for the batters' unwillingness to go the opposite way? If these hitters want the shift to stop, start spraying a few balls the other way, then go back to pulling in high-leverage situations.

Steve Adams

12:02

"Just go the other way" was a lot easier when the average MLB fastball was 88 mph. You've got guys with 93 mph sliders and 103 mph heaters now. Hitting a baseball has been one of the hardest things to do in pro sports for decades, but the difficulty has increased exponentially in recent years with more and more power arms entering the game. Specialized game plans and greatly improved, data-driven advanced scouting for each hitter a pitcher faces have also tilted things in pitchers' favor.

Joseph the Giant's Fan

12:03

Since they are still having a AAA season, could guys like Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos play in AAA or do 40-man guys have to sit out? Seems like between 2020 and this lockout, the prospects of this generation are getting royally screwed.

Steve Adams

12:03

A lot them are getting screwed, yes. 40-man guys wouldn't be able to play.

Another week asking

12:05

Who will be first free agent signed after lock out.

Steve Adams

12:06

I can take a wild guess -- Wily Peralta! Just for kicks -- but anyone who actually claims to know that with any degree of certainty is lying to you.

Mets man

12:06

Any scenario where I keep mcneil, Dom Smith, and JD Davis for depth and bench roles?