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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/23/21
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Steve Adams
2:31
I was never as big on Riley as some because the strikeouts combined with a rather pedestrian walk rate gave me pause. I don't mind the punchouts if he's walking at a 12% clip or so, and I don't mind a walk rate that's half that high if he puts the ball in play enough for a lofty average to prop up his OBP.

Any player's ceiling can change pretty radically if they cut down on their K's, substantially improve their discipline, etc., and Riley did make positive gains in both areas last year in the shortened season.

If he continues to improve in both regards, the power gives him All-Star potential. If he's a guy who's going to K around 25% and walk around 7%, the ceiling is more passable regular at 3B.
Ray
2:32
Why aren't starting pitchers expected to pitch 200 innings this season? They had a lighter workload last season plus a full offseason and Spring Training.
Steve Adams
2:33
Because there's a strong belief that an increase of that size is more likely to contribute to injury. Pitching is already unnatural ... tripling your workload leads to increased fatigue and increased wear and tear. It's why guys don't just get shut down for a month and then jump right back into throwing seven innings at a time.
Dave
2:33
how would you evaluate Zaidi’s tenure with the giants?
Steve Adams
2:34
Mostly fine. I like a lot of the one-year gambles in the rotation this year. The Yaz find was huge. Dickerson has been great for them. I'd have preferred to see him commit one way or another at the '19 deadline, though holding onto MadBum and Smith did net them some draft compensation.
I liked the effective purchase of Will Wilson from the Angels
Buccossssssss
2:35
Should I be mad at the Pirates for failing to sign these guys: Trea Turner ('11), Walker Buehler ('12), soon to be 1st rounder Gunnar Hoglund ('18). Does every team have these, or were the Pirates especially unlucky (or cheap)?
Steve Adams
2:38
No. There are guys like Buehler every year out of high school -- high profile prep arms who have a strong commitment to a college and who are considered difficult signs. That was the case with him in 2012, and most thought he'd only sign for first- or second-round money. The Bucs took him later (15th round?) in the event that something fell through with one of their top picks or they could find some way to cut a deal. It didn't happen. That situation happens regularly around the league with all 30 teams.

Turner, I believe, just wasn't that highly regarded of a draft prospect out of high school and saw his stock erupt at NC State. That happens frequently as well.
orioles scout
2:38
I think the rebuild is over by 2022 with the pitching talent we have in the upper minors and some offensive pieces coming together. Am I to optimistic?
Steve Adams
2:39
I think if the Orioles themselves felt that was the case, they'd have been more open to adding some MLB pieces this winter when several usable veterans could've been signed to multi-year deals that will look pretty reasonable in the long run. I don't think the Orioles are competitive until at least 2023.
C Young
2:39
Rangers are down two relievers they expected innings from this year, do you think they just use Woods and Kennedy as in house replacements or watch for Rondon or someone of that caliber to be released?
Steve Adams
2:41
The injuries to Hernandez, Rodriguez and Leclerc have to make it likelier that they add -- even if it's via waivers or, as you suggested, a minor pickup of a Hector Rondon type after he opts out elsewhere (Philly, in Rondon's case). The Rangers aren't in full-blown tanking mode, so I think they'll look to replenish some of that depth. And it wouldn' shock me if they signed Shane Greene in the wake of the recent injuries.
Gwynning
2:41
I mean, at this point the Rox should do a full teardown, no?   No chance of competing in the foreseeable future and they cam jumpstart a rebuild...
Steve Adams
2:42
I rarely advocate for full tear-downs, since I think the tactic is overused and has diminishing returns with so many clubs around the league parroting it.

That said, the Rockies are -- and have been -- a team that is pretty much at that last-resort point. I've been saying they need to just blow the damn thing up for more than a year. I don't think they will ever do that under this ownership/front office combo, though.
Jill
2:42
Is Cleveland heading for a rebuild or retool?
Steve Adams
2:43
I don't think they're going to tear it all down. They have a nice farm and always churn out intriguing pitchers. Ramirez and Bieber both controlled several more years. I'm an Andres Gimenez fan. I would imagine they'll be more apt to spend next winter -- probably not near their World Series levels but more than they this winter.
Adam
2:44
Do you think Adames is still a Ray by next opening day with Wander knocking on the door?
Steve Adams
2:44
Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Willy Adames traded in the next calendar year. Probably not until this summer, though.
2:46
Twins optioned Alex Kirilloff. So seems like they'll go Jake Cave, Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick, Luis Arraez or some combination of that in left field to open the year. Service time considerations are obviously huge, but Kirilloff struggled quite a bit in spring training as well.
diamondbacks
2:47
do we come in last or second to last in the NL West
Steve Adams
2:47
I haven't done any sort of lengthy look at any personal projections, but off the cuff I'd have them fourth in the NL West
Mark
2:47
If you had to guess, which Cub soon to be free agent gets a contract extension, which one gets traded and which one plays out the year with the Cubs?
Steve Adams
2:48
Rizzo will cost the least so I'd guess he gets the extension. Baez plays out the year. Bryant traded this summer. But that's assuming I can only choose one of them for each. I think it's possible a Baez deal gets done, too, but it's a tough one to project and I'm sure a tough one to negotiate. Baez doesn't want to sell himself short based on a brutal showing in the pandemic-shortened season, but the Cubs also can't just act like that year didn't happen as they project him long-term.
sunrays
2:50
will tampa ever sign a player for more than $10.000.000?
Steve Adams
2:50
They signed Charlie Morton for two years and $30MM in the 2018-19 offseason.
Kevin Kiermaier is earning $11MM this year under a six-year, $53.5MM extension
So, yes!
Rizzo
2:51
Any chance Fedde clears waivers if he doesn't make team?
Steve Adams
2:51
I'd be pretty surprised if no other club took a chance on him. Carson Fulmer has had far more opportunities with a greater number of clubs, and teams still can't get him through waivers.
Restore the Roar
2:52
Do the Tigers keep Akil Baddoo on their roster?
Steve Adams
2:52
Yeah I think he'll at least get the chance to stick and get a look early in the year. His play in-season will determine whether he stays
Secret WEapon
2:53
What are your thoughts on Harrison Bader.  He is so frustrating to watch because he can never put it all together.  I shudder to think he gets 500 ABs with how he's been playing this Spring.
Steve Adams
2:54
I think Cardinals fans focus a lot on the batting average. The hate for him is silly to me. I get that watching strikeout-prone hitters is frustrating, but he's an elite defender with some power. He's a career .234/.322/.399 hitter. The OBP is propped up some by hitting eighth in front of the pitcher, but man ... it's just not THAT bad of a line. 95 wRC+!
Nolan Gorman
2:55
Is my organization right about me?  Am I the next Pujols?
Steve Adams
2:57
No one with the Cardinals has said Gorman is "the next Pujols," and expecting him to be one of the five best players of a generation is both wildly unfair to him and an easy way to set yourself up for disappointment.
Desert Dan
2:57
Do you see the Red Sox as big sellers at the trade deadline if they struggle in the first half?
Steve Adams
2:57
If they're way out of it by the time July rolls around, yeah I can see them shopping anyone signed only through 2021 or 2022.
St. Louis Cardinals
2:58
"He is the best hitter we have developed since Albert Pujols"
Steve Adams
2:58
This sentence is not the same as "He is the next Albert Pujols"
2:59
The best meal I've had since I ate at Jeremy Ford's restaurant in Miami what feels like forever ago was probably something I cooked at home for myself. That does not mean I can open a James Beard nominated restaurant.
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