JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/30/21

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 3/30/21

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Steve Adams

2:26

Sixth-highest strikeout percentage and seventh-best K-BB% of any qualified starter since 2019. Sixth-best swinging-strike rate as well. And he pitched 72 1/3 innings last year, so the workload concerns are probably less than they would be for some starters.

Everyone takes the big step forward at some point. I doubt many expected Shane Bieber to lead the universe in ERA last year, but we all would've agreed that he's a good pitcher.

Spring numbers

2:27

When do you get worried about bad Spring numbers? Should the Padres be worried about Paddack, since they were hoping to see signs of a bounce back?

Steve Adams

2:28

I don't care about spring ERA or anything. If a guy's velocity is down 3-4 mph from where it was at this same time last year, that's the sort of thing that's more concerning. I haven't been following Paddack's struggles enough to know the specific causes behind them, admittedly. There are a lot of things to try to keep track of when you're covering all 30 teams and their giant spring rosters!

Pete

2:29

Why do teams take so long to put players on the IL? Like Eloy?

Steve Adams

2:30

They'll put him on the IL when they need to. They could've today before designating Turley, I suppose, but they probably knew they're going to DFA Turley either way (Vaughn and others need a spot) and perhaps they felt they have a better chance of passing him through waivers now before teams have settled on some decisions.

2:31

In season, there's no rush to move a guy from the 10-day to the 60-day until you need the spot. Keep the flexibility until you know what your needs are. I assume you're asking for fantasy purposes, but alas, Rick Hahn cares not about when our fake roster spots open. I own Luke Voit in two leagues. I feel your pain.

UpperDeckCut

2:32

Which Giants hitter due for the biggest regression drop: Yaz, Belt or Solano? Thank you.

Steve Adams

2:33

Solano is easily the most dependent on BABIP and only walks at a 4 percent clip. I don't buy nearly any of his offensive breakout over the past two seasons. I think Yaz is a legitimately well above-average hitter. Belt has been in the past as well, so I think he's got a better chance to continue his 2020 -- though health is obviously a concern there.

A's man

2:34

Do you see the AL West being a 3 horse race or is the Angels hype not real?

Steve Adams

2:35

I do see the Angels in the race. I know the pitching isn't great, but I'm buying Bundy, I think Heaney is underrated, Canning is talented and Ohtani is an obvious wild card. A healthy Quintana could be useful. Trout+Rendon sets such a high baseline with the offense. David Fletcher is underrated.

The pitching is full of question marks, but yes, I think they can contend if things (for once) go their way on the health front.

Season

2:35

You did the awards predictions, how about divisions and wild card?

Steve Adams

2:36

Since I have to happen to have these handy as we just did team-wide predictions for our Front Office subscribers...

(And because it dovetails so nicely with the prior question)

2:37

NL West: Dodgers
NL Central: Brewers
NL East: Braves
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Angels (bring me your vitriol)
AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Astros
NL Wild Cards: Padres, Mets

Crowned royal

2:37

how do you see the Royals doing this year?

Steve Adams

2:38

Better than some projections but still missing the postseason and probably checking in below .500. I think FanGraphs has them around 77 wins, and that's the general range I'd go with off the cuff.

Baseball Nut

2:38

No White Sox love? Nelson Cruz has to stop hitting sometime, right!

Steve Adams

2:39

White Sox are totally plausible as either a Wild Card or AL Central champ. I question the team's depth, however, and did so even before the Eloy injury left them with Vaughn in LF and probably Collins at DH. I just don't think they're built to withstand key injuries as much as some other clubs. Imagine if they lose Giolito for a couple months ... Keuchel, Lynn, Cease, Rodon, Reynaldo doesn't exactly seem too imposing.

Plus, my AL Cy Young pick would go up in flames.

2:40

When does Witt get the call? If he continues hitting.

Steve Adams

2:41

He still hasn't even played a game of A-ball yet. I was surprised they were openly touting him as a candidate to break camp with the team. I wouldn't think he's up until summer at the bare minimum. If you'd asked me at the beginning of Spring Training, I wouldn't even have really considered 2021 much of a legitimate option.

Odor

2:41

The Rangers' roster is very weak, so what does the fact that they DFA'd him tell us about his future?

Steve Adams

2:43

We don't need the Rangers' roster to tell us that Odor isn't good. He hasn't been good for four years. I've been amazed by seeing some fans on Twitter say they hope their team adds him as a bench bat. I saw some Dodgers fan say he'd trade Matt Beaty for Odor. Maybe some people don't realize the extent of his recent struggles?

Anyway, the Rangers' roster may not be great, but it has some intriguing players. I'm curious to see what Solak does, even after last year's struggles. Love me some Joey Gallo. Excited to see Nate Lowe get a chance, and I was a big David Dahl believer before the deluge of injuries.

2:43

I don’t like you at all Steve, I will demand that FredBird destroys Bernie in a death match and I will personally trip every sausage in the Weiner exhibition. Think Cardinal red in the central Steve...

Steve Adams

2:45

If their rotation were healthier I'd be more generally inclined to buy in. I'm also probably higher on Woodruff (obviously) and Corbin Burnes than most people, which has me giving the Brewers the edge in the division. That the Cards are still leaning on the same collection of outfielders and Matt Carpenter is a strike against them, too.

That said, of course they could win the NL Central or (less likely) a Wild Card spot. I think it'll be easier to say they take the division, because the Padres/Dodgers are both so deep and the NL East is quite strong as well.

Not saying they're the Pirates or anything. (Sorry Pittsburgh fans)

2:46

Rizzo offered 5 yrs-$70 million, Correa offered 6 yrs-$120 million, these seem like ridiculous lowballs?

Steve Adams

2:46

I haven't seen the Rizzo report, but if that's out there, yeah that seems low. He may not end up beating that in free agency, but I can see why he wouldn't jump on it.

2:49

I do think 6/120 is low for Correa. That's the Bogaerts deal, which was insanely team friendly. Xander has been better and more durable, but Correa's ceiling is enormous, and he's the youngest of next year's uber-crop of shortstops. He'll clear $200MM by a wide margin if he has a big season, which he's obviously capable of.

Even if he tanks, the 'Stros will probably make him a qualifying offer at around 1/19. So if he feels confident he has $19MM in the bank for 2022, his age-27 season, he's going to look at 6/120 as effectively 5/101. For his age-28 through age-32 seasons.

Bob

2:49

Rays over Yankees in the ALE even though the Rays lost their #1 and #3 starters? No way, Yanks are going to win the division easily this year.

Steve Adams

2:50

I think Glasnow is their best starter, but really, both teams have a No. 1 and a bunch of question marks. I don't think either will run away with the division. If I felt confident either Judge or Stanton could remain healthy, I'd feel better about the Yankees. Losing Britton already doesn't help matters.

Jesse

2:51

What impact relievers do you see being available at the deadline this year? I don't see too many quality relievers on teams that are bad enough to be out of it by July.

Steve Adams

2:53

Richard Rodriguez doesn't get credit as an "impact" reliever but probably should. He'll be available. Other possible names:

Joakim Soria, Chris Devenski, Daniel Bard, Mychal Givens, Robert Stephenson, Jake McGee, Matt Wisler, Jose Alvarez, Kyle Crick, Chris Stratton, Sean Doolittle, Yimi Garcia, Anthony Bass, Buck Farmer, Derek Holland, Matt Barnes, Adam Ottavino, Matt Andriese, Tanner Scott, Paul Fry, Kendall Graveman, Rafael Montero

I copied/pasted that from a list I had going for something different, and that was pulled together on the fly. Not an immediately deep list, but there are always some unexpected names available. If the A's are more borderline than clear division contenders, for instance, they could shop Rosenthal.

Robert Nutting

2:54

Do I try to extend K. Hayes now? I'm getting my ear pulled every single day about it, what do I do?

Steve Adams

2:54

Seems like they already did try to extend him. He passed:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/pirates-made-extension-offer-to...

2:55

I'm sure the terms were quite team-friendly, so if you're asking do I think they should up the offer? Personally, I do. But as you saw above, I picked Hayes as my ROY, so I'm obviously a believer.

Diamond Joe Maddon

2:56

What are my expectations for back end guys Cobb and Quintana? 5-6 innings of 4 ERA ball? Seems plausible with the new dead ball and pitcher friendly division.

Steve Adams

2:56

I think that's probably reasonable for Quintana. Less bullish on Cobb.

Opening day

2:57

Odor and cash for tauchman ?

Steve Adams

2:57

I cannot fathom any reason the Yankees would do that.

Jlf

2:57

Will Kenta Maeda follow up 2020 with another cy young worthy season?