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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/16/19
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Steve Adams
3:20
Greetings all -- I'll get this underway in a minute or so but feel free to start filing questions whenever, as always.
Also -- apologies on a bit of a late start. We'll still run about an hour in total
Felix Pie
3:22
What might a Javier Baez extension look like? Any of the recent extensions possible comps?
Steve Adams
3:25
None of them jump out as immediate comps to me, though I guess you could argue that he could command something like Bregman+ since he has an additional year of service time over Bregman. When we were doing our last round of hiring we set a theoretical Javy Baez extension as something for applicants to tackle writing about, and we came in around something like 7/115 as I recall. I'd need a bit more time to dive into it rather than tackle it off-the-cuff, but I still think something like that seems reasonable (albeit probably more than I'd care to pay)
Pablo
3:25
What are your thoughts on Pineda for 2019?
Steve Adams
3:26
He'll give the Twins something like 140-150 pretty good innings if the arm holds up, though that's never a given with him. So long as he's healthy, he's a pretty easy mid-rotation starter. The $10MM investment looks pretty shrewd at this point.
Tony 2bags
3:26
Any timetable on Trea aTutr
Steve Adams
3:27
Assuming that's Trea Turner, it was 4-6 weeks from the time of his injury, so we're looking at another 2-4 weeks yet.
Prospector
3:28
Nate Pearson is the best pitcher in the minors nobody knows about. Change my mind...
Steve Adams
3:28
Does saying, "most people who even loosely follow prospects know who Nate Pearson is" change your mind? Because that was my initial reaction, haha. I don't agree that he's some kind of unknown.
Yankees
3:28
Does Gio get the call up this week before his opt out?
Steve Adams
3:28
I think they'll give him a look, yes
3:29
Last two starts have been good
Hummm Baby
3:29
Thoughts on possible deals with Giants pitchers? What is our greatest need really?
Steve Adams
3:30
They're not going to target one area of need; it'll simply be a means of extracting the best talent possible for Bumgarner, Smith, Watson and I guess Dyson -- regardless of the position of the young talent they're receiving in return
David
3:30
Is the Red Sox designating Swihart a panic move?
Steve Adams
3:32
I don't really get the appeal of Leon over him; defense aside, you know Leon is going to be an utter black hole with the bat, and Vazquez is going to start the majority of games.

That said, the outcry from Boston fans this morning struck me as sheer overreaction. Playing time hasn't been consistent, but Swihart hasn't hit in 600+ MLB PAs or in nearly 500 Triple-A PAs. Injuries have been a factor, too, but if the Sox thought he was anything close to the talent he was supposed to be when he was such a ballyhooed prospect, they'd never have cut him loose.

Time will tell if they're wrong, and you can certainly say they should've traded him way sooner if they were going to commit to Vazquez, but at this point I'm not expecting some kind of Swihart breakout wherever he lands.
3:33
Not rooting against the guy -- hope I'm wrong, in fact -- but that's how I see it.
Kimbrel
3:33
Back to Boston?
Steve Adams
3:33
As I've said for weeks: no chance. They'll pay 75% taxes on any dollar they spend on him.
Jon Daniels
3:34
If Gio Gonzalez opts out of his minors deal, will the Rangers grab him?
Steve Adams
3:35
(Jon Daniels is the Rangers' GM/president of bb ops)

Perfectly reasonable on-paper match. Rangers are looking for rotation depth and have already had some issues since the last time they passed on Gio. Not sure how much they love him, though; their rotation was pretty clearly a disaster when they let him go to the Yankees on a minor league deal.
Kevin C
3:36
hey Steve in your recollection have you ever seen a team hit so hard by the injury bug like my Yankees? btw was just waiting on Bird to join the club
Steve Adams
3:37
That's been the Angels' MO for the past 2-3 years. Yankees have a long way to go before they catch them. Mets, Rangers have had a deluge of injuries as well.
Fan
3:38
Tatis or Alonso for a way too early prediction of NL ROY?
Steve Adams
3:39
Tatis will have way, way more defensive value. Should add Victor Robles to that conversation, too. Alex Verdugo and Chris Paddack off to monster starts as well, though I don't think Paddack will get the innings he needs to be a serious contender.
Ryan
3:39
Do you think opt-out clauses benefit the player and the team? Or just the player?
Steve Adams
3:42
Generally speaking they favor the player, but it's possible that they can benefit the team in a roundabout way, also. The Red Sox probably don't really WANT J.D. Martinez's final season of his contract, for instance, knowing that he'll have negative defensive value and his bat is likely to decline by the time he's 34. So if he mashes for two years, opts out, and signs elsewhere, the deal worked out nicely for them.

That said, taking on the risk that comes with the leverage you're handing that player is a dicey proposition for a lot of clubs -- one that some GMs just simply won't risk in any circumstance. I wouldn't claim that an opt-out is good for the team at the time of a player's signing, but it can work out nicely for all parties.
Ruban Amaro
3:42
JP Crawford is looking good in AAA, when do the Mariners call him up?
Steve Adams
3:43
Beckham is still playing well, so there's no immediate need to make a move. I don't think this was their thinking when they optioned Crawford, but at this point they're 2.5 weeks or so away from getting another year of control over him. If Beckham is playing even reasonably well, they'll probably shrug and take the extra control.
Marcus H
3:44
Just saw the article about Kimbrel close to making a decision but having no clear favorite...Final Prediction on where he lands is.....?
Steve Adams
3:46
If he were close to making a decision, there'd be a clear favorite/favorites. The article you referenced is a load of hot garbage, to be frank. But hey, it'll generate clicks and that's all they seem to care about. (Hence the unabashed, blatant clickbait headline)
Jeff
3:46
Has Swanson started to finally figured it out?
Steve Adams
3:47
It's almost as if everyone who called him a bust and said the Braves should trade him because he didn't break out as a superstar immediately upon reaching the Majors overreacted!

Less cynically, haha, yes I'm buying Dansby's improvement. I don't think he's a 145 wRC+ like he is presently, but yeah, the improvement has some staying power.
Carlos Zambrano
3:47
Will my comeback go anywhere?
Steve Adams
3:48
Ha, I hope so. At the very least, I'm hoping he starts a road game against the St. Paul Saints. I'm walking distance from their stadium and happily pay to watch Z pitch
Astrologist
3:48
Think the Astros put in a claim on Swihart and dump Stassi?
Steve Adams
3:49
Stassi is a premium framer with power. I doubt the Astros even consider Swihart an upgrade.
Brewers
3:49
Hader or Jeffress? Who closes
Steve Adams
3:50
Hader for now, Jeffress eventually since the Brewers will want to bring Hader into any and all high-leverage spots rather than save him for the ninth.
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