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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 4/7/20
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Johnny Bench
4:11
If the Reds go after a shortstop sometime this season are they more likely to try and trade for Semien or Lindor...or wait until the offseason and gamble on one of the above or Didi leaving Philly?  Just looking for thoughts, thanks!!
Steve Adams
4:11
I'm sure they'll explore the idea of a Lindor deal this year, but an offseason run at Didi or Semien feels a bit more plausible to me.
Steve Adams Twin
4:12
Do guys like Castellanos with opt outs leave in 2021 or stay because of 2020 season? How many guys have those opt outs?
Steve Adams
4:13
I think we'll see more guys pass on the opt-outs. Castellanos would be going out a year older with a qualifying offer. I don't think he could just assume he'd do better.
Others with QOs... give me one second:
Eerrrr
Others with opt-outs:
4:15
Giancarlo Stanton (7/218 -- not happening)
JD Martinez (2/38.75 -- decent chance)
Dellin Betances (player option at $6MM with $3MM buyout)
Wade Davis ($15MM player option that he'd almost surely take if he finishes 30 games)

Not a lot of opt-outs this year, although that was just a really qui
Oops
4:16
Was just a quick glance* -- let me know if I missed someone
Rogelio Papadopolous
4:16
What do you think the free agent market will be for Yuli Gurriel? He has been quite productive since joining the MLB, but he'll be 37 after 2020 and realistically only plays first base. Do his earnings (one or two year deal, presumably) hinge on his production this year?
Steve Adams
4:17
Yeah, age won't be on his side. I don't see him getting more than a year unless he has a huge output in an abbreviated season (if we get one). Easy to imagine clubs being skeptical of Astros hitters, too
Dill
4:17
Would the qualifying offer be the same for next offseason if the season isn’t played or delayed?
Steve Adams
4:18
It's based on the average salary of the game's top 125 paid players. I've yet to see any indication that'll change.
F.Lee Bailey
4:19
Is it legal to front load some contracts during this period. For example, Joe Jones has a deal for 3/30. Can you renegotiate that (since he's not going to get 10M this year) to overpay this year and get a discount on further years?
Steve Adams
4:19
"Joe Jones" would have no reason to agree to such a deal
AA
4:20
Who will get the Braves 1yr High AAV contract in 2021?
Steve Adams
4:21
Justin Turner, if things don't pan out with Riley/Camargo?
AA connection -- he'll be 36, so teams may shy away from too long a deal
4:22
Trevor Bauer is always an easy answer to player who could sign somewhere on a big one-year deal
Top OF Free Agents
4:22
Who are the top FA outfielders for 2020?
Steve Adams
4:23
Mookie Betts, George Springer, Marcell Ozuna, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley
Castellanos if a season is played and he hits well enough to opt out. Guess you could count JD Martinez, but he's clearly more of a DH at this point
Money Talks
4:24
What player not named Mookie Betts will get the most money in free agency next year?
Steve Adams
4:25
I lean toward Springer if he has a productive year at the plate, but JT Realmuto and Marcus Semien are in the mix.
JT Realmuto
4:25
Any way I am a free agent after the season if we don’t play this season?
Steve Adams
4:25
He's a free agent whether they play a single game or not
Sedona Ron
4:26
Who goes after Robbie Ray and at what price?
Steve Adams
4:30
Any of Ray, Bauer, Paxton, Stroman or Mike Minor could end up as the "top" free agent arm next year, depending on whether games are played. I lean toward Ray, of the bunch, because of the K% and his age (he'll pitch at 29 in 2021).

His performance this year would play a role, but I think Ryu's 4/80 seemed like a floor. A big enough season could put him north of 100MM.

Teams? Angels, Yankees, White Sox, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Giants, Phillies, Mets, Padres, Jays ... it'd be a pretty expansive market.
M
4:30
Phillies just QO Didi if theres no season, right?
Steve Adams
4:32
I don't know; he couldn't get $17.8MM on a one-year deal without the QO this winter. They'd have to assume he accepts.

I don't think that's a bad outcome, but they were right up against the CBT this year and might be a little reluctant to perhaps overcommit a few extra million
NicktheQuick
4:33
Can you take the time to make a new list of ALL the remaining free agents from 2010-2020?
Steve Adams
4:34
Assuming you mean 2019-20, most are here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents.html
A few have opted out of deals (Jared Hughes, for instance), but that's a pretty good guideline. Note that we tend to use 50 PA or 20 IP in the preceding season as a prerequisite
Evan
4:34
Bauer’s earning potential on a one year deal? 30+ in a bidding war?
Steve Adams
4:36
If he pitches well, yeah. I think most fans would be generally shocked by the AAVs that teams would put out there on a one-year deal for top end talents. Bauer has been inconsistent, but he has ace-caliber stuff and the risk on such a short deal is minimal. I love that he's going year to year for his whole career.
4:37
I should say -- all of this talk of earning power is based on recent trends and in a normal spending climate ... we don't have a great way to forecast how teams will be willing to spend after losing a big chunk of revenue in 2020, so I'm not going to make broad-ranging assumptions (well -- at least not any broader than presuming I can accurately provide a rough estimate of their would-be earning power)
10k-lakes
4:37
Re: starters no Odorizzi?
Steve Adams
4:38
Ah yeah, he's in the mix, too. I thought he could've gotten something like 3/51 this winter, so if he goes out and shoves again, re-enters FA without a QO, he could do nicely even if he's more of a 5-inning guy
(That's also true of Ray, so I don't think it's a major detriment)
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