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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 6/25/24
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Steve Adams
1:34
I don't think anyone has a good way to answer that because we don't know how aggressive David Rubenstein, their new owner, will be nor what level of payroll he's comfortable with. We also don't know how aggressive GM Mike Elias will be now that he's working under an owner who'll presumably have fewer financial restrictions on him.

I would lean against it, just because it'd be pretty surprising to see an owner come in and immediately plop down a $240-250MMish contract that would easily set a new record-high, and because as you said, they're going to have core pieces they hope to extend. (Henderson is a Boras client who'd probably already cost $300MM+, so I expect he's out of the picture.)

But it should be a fun offseason for O's fans -- the kind they haven't had in years. High expectations, clean payroll slate, new owner... good recipe.
Dan’l
1:34
Am I supposed to think the Cards are good (-30 run differential)? As a fan of the team, I find myself wanting them to sell. But they’re winning too much.
Steve Adams
1:36
I think you can think they're good enough to be in the Wild Card mix and then potentially will become better post-deadline, depending on the moves they make. They're not a real World Series contender for me right now, but we'll see what type of upgrades they make, as I expect they'll be at least modest buyers barring a complete collapse. And hey, I'd have said I didn't think the D-backs were World Series contenders last year as well, so who knows... get into the postseason and see what happens
Do you really answer ?s
1:36
4th time...Where does Tanner Scott finish this season & will he be the Closer?
Steve Adams
1:37
The Marlins don't even know where they'll trade Tanner Scott right now. If you want me to hazard a guess, I'll say Yankees because they want a LH reliever and tend to place an emphasis on ground-ball relievers and velocity. Scott checks all those boxes.

Whether he closes is entirely dependent on who makes the best offer and gets him though, and right now that's pure guesswork. Even the Marlins don't know.
Guest
1:37
Was last year a fluke for Nolan Jones?
Steve Adams
1:41
Yes and no? I never believed he could sustain the batting average. He K'ed at a near-30% clip last year but hit almost .300 because of a .401 BABIP. He was never going to repeat that kind of fortune on balls in play, even with a pretty decent batted-ball profile.

But I also didn't expect the pendulum to swing this far in the other direction. His ground-ball rate has spiked significantly, at the cost of both line-drives and homers, and he's popping up at a higher rate (albeit still only three times this season.... but he only popped up five times last year and did so on only 5.5% of his fly-balls as opposed to his current 11.5%).

Jones is making more contact but swinging considerably less often and beating the ball into the ground when he does. It's not a good combo. I don't think last year was fully real but I do think he's better than this, with the true version lying somewhere in the middle
If he hit like .240/.340/.450 the rest of the way, I wouldn't be surprised and would think that feels about right, but it seems there's something off with his approach right now too.
Pedro Grifol
1:42
If Mike Clevinger comes back, makes 6-7 starts for the White Sox, is there even a market for him? Or would teams just rather look elsewhere for pitching?
Steve Adams
1:43
I'm sure there are teams that would just prefer to look elsewhere, but he's cheap enough and supply is short enough that I think someone would make a deal for him if he looked even decent. The prospect cost isn't going to be high.
Rox
1:43
Could the Yankees and Mets look to trade their 2nd basemen at the deadline? Both McNeil and Torres look lost at the plate.
Steve Adams
1:44
They could try, but no one's taking the last 2.5 years of that McNeil contract with the way he's performing right now. Torres would be easier but they'd probably just have to flip him for another struggling rental player, similar to last year's Amed Rosario/Noah Syndergaard swap between Cleveland and L.A.
Royal and Blue
1:44
Are you out on the Royals' chance at making the playoffs?
Steve Adams
1:47
I was never all that bullish. They have a dismal lineup outside their top 3-4 hitters (and I'm not yet sold all the way on Massey), and the depth beyond the top few arms in the rotation is weak. Plus, the bullpen looks rough.

They could make some upgrades and sneak in via Wild Card, but I think they're the No. 3 team in the division. Luckily, there's a lot of middling teams in a similar spot fighting it out for that No. 3 Wild Card spot, so they still have a chance if they add the right pieces and get some good luck in terms of keeping the most important pieces of their top-heavy roster healthy (Witt, Perez, Ragans, Singer, Lugo, Vinnie)
Metrics
1:47
Which advanced metric do you think is most over-rated? Under-rated?
Steve Adams
1:51
I tend to think any individual metric is overrated if you're looking at it and it alone. All metrics have flaws and are pieces of a larger story.

If I'm picking one or two... I cringe at the use of WHIP because a walk and a hit are not at all the same for a pitcher, who has far more control over one of those things (walks) than the other (hits). FIP is also overused in the sense that it's not my favorite ERA alternative. It doesn't normalize HR/FB trends, which have an incredibly consistent year-to-year correlation. HR/FB tends to stabilize at 11-12% (outside the wonky juiced ball year and whatever's happening in 2024), but FIP treats a 2% HR/FB and 22% HR/FB as if they're just fine and likely to continue.  I prefer SIERA, but I still reference FIP on the site often because it's more common and recognized.

But again, look at all kinds of numbers. Figure out why you like/dislike them, and use them together to form an opinion.
TB test
1:51
My gut tells me the Rays are going to trim payroll unless they really hit a hot streak,(or maybe even if they do). The SP sellers are going to have the upper hand this deadline. Do you see Eflin on the block?
Steve Adams
1:52
Yeah I think there's a good chance the Rays move some money off the books even if they're hanging around the fringe of the Wild Card picture. Eflin and his backloaded contract is the easiest way to go about that, but Pete Fairbanks and Yandy Diaz are two other names who seem like they could pop up. It'd be hard to sell low on Arozarena, but if some team comes in with an offer that's valuing him above his current level of production but south of his typical output, that'd be a tough call they'd probably have to consider.
Pedro Grifol
1:53
How unprecedented is Martin Maldonado's grip on the White Sox' catching job? Stats show that Sox starters do a lot worse with him behind the plate than Korey Lee. Are there any plans to ease him off the roster in the 2nd half?
Steve Adams
1:53
The Astros did the same thing. I have never understood the Maldonado obsession. Even if you love his game-planning and game-calling I don't see how it can outweigh his anemic offense and the dwindling skills in other key defensive areas.
Adames
1:54
over/under on 180.1mm this offseason?
Steve Adams
1:55
Ha, that's about exactly where I'd set the O/U as well. We've been discussing this over the past 24 hours at MLBTR while Anthony is getting ready to write up the latest edition of our Free Agent Power Rankings. I'm a little more bearish on Adames than Anthony and Darragh but like him more than Tim Dierkes does.

Right now, I'd take the slight under (even though I like him more as a player than Dansby Swanson, who got $177MM at the same age), but I do think he can top that mark with a really strong finish.
1:56
Willy Adames offseason contract?
Well north of $180MM (7% | 19 votes)
 
Right in that $180MMish range (Dansby money) (45.2% | 123 votes)
 
Way less. You guys are nuts. (47.8% | 130 votes)
 
Total Votes: 272
Hoskins
1:57
Do I opt out? If so, what would you currently predict my next contract to be (off the cuff)?
Steve Adams
1:58
Right now I'd lean toward him picking up the player option, but Hoskins is a good enough hitter that I can see a big three final months pushing him to decline. Right now he's a 110 wRC+ first baseman who doesn't have a particularly good glove. It's not an exciting package. If he's more in his typical 125 wRC+ range by season's end and finishes at 25-30 homers, then the opt-out seems more feasible.
Sad White Sox fan
1:58
What about Fedde and Crochet together to the O's for Basallo, Mayo, Beavers and Povich. Who says no?
Steve Adams
1:59
Can't see the O's giving up that much, even for both of them.
Angels deadline
1:59
Do halos still move Anderson at deadline with so many injuries to rotation?
Tyler Anderson
1:59
With injuries to Luzardo and Sandoval did my value go up?
Jack Lazorko
1:59
Do you think there will be a market for Anderson and Canning?
Steve Adams
2:02
Yes, I think they'll move Anderson. No, I don't think the injuries to other pitchers has substantially upped his value. I think teams that were seeking rotation upgrades would be more likely to just upgrade other areas (e.g. bullpen) than suddenly pay more for Anderson because a couple other potential targets got hurt.

I've said this multiple times, but I don't think Anderson is going to command much of a return. The ERA is great, but it's a very low K% and high BB%. Teams aren't going to buy him as a sub-3.00 guy even though he also did it with the Dodgers -- because he was missing way more bats and walking way fewer guys as a Dodger. He's also going on 35 and owed $13MM next season.

I think a mid-level prospect and salary relief would be a good outcome.

Canning should draw interest too, yeah.
Pedro4eva
2:02
Why don't the Red Sox give Niko Kavadas a shot? He's been on a tear at AAA all season and he cannot be worse than Dominic Smith both offensively and defensively at first
Steve Adams
2:02
Point about him vs. Dom is well-taken, but Kavadas is striking out in 34% of his plate appearances in AAA. I doubt the Sox feel he can carry the production over to MLB when he's whiffing that much
Noelvi Marte
2:03
Are the Reds going to call me up as soon as my suspension is over?
Steve Adams
2:03
I would think so, but he's hitting like .143/.160/.143 right now so he'll need to be better than that. If he looks rusty and lost at the plate, I can see him sticking in AAA for awhile, especially with Candelario raking at the moment.
Bartolo Colon
2:04
Over/under 99.9% that you want to see me come out of retirement and dominate for Milwaukee?
Steve Adams
2:04
100% want to watch Big Sexy pitch forever and don't care which team.
2:05
Well, that's not true. I want him to pitch for the Twins. My fandom for the team has waned since baseball became my full-time job in 2013, but my fandom for Bartolo has not, and I live 15 minutes from Target Field. So come back to the Twins, Bartolo. I want to take my son to watch this majestic king pitch, haha. (Brewers would be a good alternative though! Milwaukee's only a five-hour drive!)
Matt
2:06
Who has more trade value Skubal (2.5 years of control) or Reese Olson (6 years of control)?
Steve Adams
2:08
I love questions like this because I don't think there's a universal answer. In a vacuum, I'd say Skubal. He's a true No. 1 and you're getting him for three playoff runs. Olson looks like a nice mid-rotation guy but probably someone more likely to put up a mid/high 3.00s ERA. That's inherently easier to find.

But it depends on the buyer, too. If you have any near-term postseason aspirations at all, of course you want Skubal. If you're, say, the White Sox/Marlins, there might actually be more appeal in getting Olson for the longer window of control, even though the ceiling is lower.

Also, splitting hairs here, but Olson is controllable for five more years, not six.  (Well, 5.5... half of this year and five full seasons thereafter)
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