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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 6/25/24
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AJ
2:08
If the M's add some offense, they are true contenders come the playoffs, right?
Steve Adams
2:09
They're true contenders even if they can't hit. That pitching is so good. Give that staff 1-2 runs and they've got a chance.
But yes, if they add a Pete Alonso, Vlad Guerrero, even just a Tommy Pham, it'll help a lot.

Also, I think there's a lot of fretting over "no bats being available" right now, but the context of the trade market will look quite different three to four weeks from now.
Nats Fan
2:10
They brought them on as trade chips, but is there any chance E Rosario, N Senzel can be traded?  I figure Winker is a yes, maybe Corbin after pitching better of late?
Steve Adams
2:12
Rosario's more a DFA candidate than a trade piece. Senzel is at least healthy, but he's cooling at the plate of late and I don't envision a huge market without a big surge at the plate.

Winker should draw some interest, yes. He hasn't looked this good since 2021.

I doubt Corbin, but if the Nats eat like 90-95% of the remaining money, maybe someone just seeking an inning-eating fifth starter would shrug and take him. He's not good, but a 4.71 ERA with a good walk rate and nearly 6 IP per start over his past 10 turns could have some value to the right club, even with the awful K%
Luzardo
2:13
Luzardo is less likely to move now that he's on the IL, but I don't understand why several outlets had him as the starting pitching prize this year over Crochet. Both have an injury history, but Crochet's numbers, both this year and for their nascent careers, are just better across the board. Plus, he's likely cheaper because his injuries kept his arb number low. Not saying Luzardo is bad, but Crochet just seems more valuable. What am I missing?
Steve Adams
2:14
Crochet has way less track record and has pitched more innings this season than in his entire pro career combined. Luzardo has No. 1/2 starter type of stuff as well, but seemingly hasn't been healthy this year, hence the middling results.  But 279 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with a 29% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 2022-23 is pretty dang nice, especially in front of a pretty shaky defense.
2:15
If you like Crochet better, that's totally defensible. He's probably the better pitcher. But it's a question of how he'll hold up. We don't know. They're both really nice trade chips. (Or were, when Luzardo was healthy)
Hoof hearted
2:16
Is Luis Castillo still the guy the M'S thought he was? seems like he'll have a bad inning and give up 2-4 runs and then lose 4-3. Not as Dominating
Steve Adams
2:19
Fair to say he's not as dominant as he was. The velo is down a bit. So are the K's and grounders. But the Mariners also didn't really pay him ace money... he's making second/third starter money right now at $21MM per... that's a Chris Bassitt AAV.

Castillo still has better-than-average K and BB rates, still works about six innings per start, and still looks wholly capable of pitching to a mid-3.00s ERA over nearly 200 innings. He's probably a 3ish WAR starter even if his stuff doesn't tick back up. And with Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, Woo all on the roster as well, he doesn't need to be the capital-A Ace to justify the contract.
Brewers
2:19
Who is the best fit at the deadline (or before) to add to the starting ranks... T. Anderson, Y. Kikuchi, J. Flaherty?  Assume the first two come at a much less prospect cost than Flaherty.
Steve Adams
2:20
Flaherty is the "best" fit just in the sense that he's the best pitcher of that trio. But yes, he'll have the highest acquisition cost. I doubt a mid-market team like the Brewers loves the idea of paying Anderson $13MM next year, but if they don't want to surrender much prospect talent and just want to patch over an injury-marred staff, he'd work there.

In terms of impact though, it's pretty clearly Flaherty, Kikuchi, Anderson for me.
Ken
2:21
Mason Miller for Heston Kjerstad and Connor Norby. Who says no - Oakland or Baltimore?
Steve Adams
2:21
That's pretty comparable for what they gave up for one year of Burnes. You're talking 5.5 of Miller. I think the A's would want more, even as good as that offer is. (And it is good)
Trade Deadline
2:21
Obviously, we have a few weeks until the trade deadline, but if things remain more or less as they are now, which teams do you expect to throw up a white flag and sell in what seems to be a seller's market?
Steve Adams
2:22
Rays, Blue Jays, Tigers
Brewers just acquired Dallas Keuchel from the Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal. Presumably just for cash since Keuchel was on a minor league deal in SEA and obviously lacked a path to the majors there
2:23
Easy to poke fun, but Keuchel had some decent starts for MIN late last year, has gotten a bit of velo back (not all of it) and had a 3.93 ERA in AAA with Seattle.
Bradke Hrbek
2:24
Is it time for the Twins to call up Brooks Lee and David Festa? Would the team be better right now with those guys starting, Paddack in the bullpen and Farmer moving on to another team?
Steve Adams
2:24
Lee has barely even played this season due to a back injury. I think Festa will be up sooner than later, and Paddack to the 'pen is a reasonable deduction, particularly with him landing on the IL due to shoulder fatigue. They're going to watch the innings down the stretch, even if the plan is for him to start again next season.
2:25
It is indeed Keuchel for cash. Brewers add some innings. Makes sense.
Fatt Kemp
2:26
Severino is pitching well for the Mets, what would he fetch in a trade? Also it would have been more fun for the Yankees to sign him to the same 4/$40 contract he had before. At worst, that's the rate for an above-average reliever
Steve Adams
2:28
He is indeed pitching well, but he's missing fewer bats than ever, both in terms of his K% and his raw SwStr% and Whiff%. Also getting fewer chases out of the zone than ever (which plays into the lack of K's and whiffs).

So, while I think he'll get the Mets a return of some note, I don't think it's going to be any kind of top-end prospect. A couple of middle-tier 40 to 45 FV prospect types from the middle of someone's system seems fair, or maybe a big leaguer with some experience who hasn't clicked just yet.
2:30
Ok, I've got to wrap up. Thanks for participating, as always!

If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn more about the Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you'll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, a weekly subscriber-only chat with Anthony (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to the MLBTR Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. It starts at $2.99/month.

Also, sincere apologies to Patrick Sandoval for featuring him in my FO piece for last week. He's now like the 3rd or 4th player I've highlighted in the past calendar year who has immediately incurred a major injury. :(
I don't know what I did to acquire this curse, but if anyone has any remedies, please let me know. And get well ASAP Patrick, that sucks.
Have a good week everyone!
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