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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 7/2/24
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Grant
1:28
Two years ago, everyone thought the Padres fleeced the Nats by trading four prospects for a generational player in Juan Soto. Today, everyone thinks the Nats fleeced the Padres. Which estimate is closer to the truth? Or do you think, like me, that it was a perfectly balanced trade?
Steve Adams
1:30
I don't think "everyone" thought the Padres "fleeced" the Nats. It was widely regarded as one of the most eye-popping prospect hauls in history.

Maybe you're going off social media reaction and such -- which is always just going to be a bunch of knee-jerk, hot take drivel -- but my recollection of that trade was: "Holy crap the Padres gave up so much" and also "Holy crap the Padres' lineup is going to be insane"

I think it was an appropriate price to pay for a hitter of Soto's age and caliber. The return has worked out beautifully for D.C. so far.
Os fan
1:32
With Mayo, Henderson, Westburg and Holiday plus Norby….doesn’t it make sense to move one for a top of rotation pitcher?   Holliday!
Steve Adams
1:34
The number of O's fans willing to move on from Holliday because he struggled in a 36-PA big league debut is incredible to me. I would be absolutely floored if Baltiimore traded Holliday.
Tyler Anderson
1:34
Will my contract be a problem in any trade? How much would halos have to absorb to get decent prospect?
Steve Adams
1:35
Yes the contract will weigh down most/all of his trade value. The K-BB profile isn't good, the contract isn't cheap. The Angels could still probably move him, but I wouldn't anticipate much in the way o prospect value being included in any trade unless the Angels pay down some notable salary. Even then, Anderson 34 going on 35,, averaging 89 mph with his heater this season and striking out like 15-16% of his opponents (against a 10% walk rate or so).

It's not a super appealing package outside the ERA.
Jamoche1
1:35
Has the chance to extend Kwan long-term slipped away from the Guardians?
Steve Adams
1:37
I don't think so, although we don't see tons of hitters sign extensions at this point. (I'm considering Kwan a 3+ service player since that's where he'll be by the time these talks are more plausible in the ofseason.)

Kwan will have three years of service. He's repped by CAA, a firm that isn't at all averse to pre-FA extensions. He's into arbitration this winter, so he'll start making good money anyhow, but the arb system isn't going to reward him the same as it it would a Pete Alonso/Vlad Guerrero style slugger -- so there's perhaps a little extra incentive to talk contract.
Ken
1:37
A lot of writers are reporting that the A's are unlikely to move Mason Miller. How much of that is real versus posturing by the A's to look less desperate?
Steve Adams
1:39
No one really knows for sure right now, but historically speaking, trades of star-caliber players with under a year of MLB service time are borderline nonexistent. The lack of precedent is one reason there's a large expectation he'll stay, but man.... if they can get multiple quality MLB-ready prospects and then some lower-level  pieces, that'll be tough to turn down.
Royals
1:40
4 players in history have been a player to be named later in a trade for themselves.  Could the Royals work out a deal with the White Sox to get Luis Robert for the remainder of the year, and trade him back as a PTBNL?  Add a couple prospects and their compensation pick?
Steve Adams
1:40
Modern version of the rules say a PTBNL can't be anyone on the 40-man roster
Philsfan
1:40
Prediction on what a Ranger Suarez extension might look like?
Steve Adams
1:40
Mitch Keller/Pablo Lopez range
Hitting for .400
1:41
do you think it happens within the next 10 years? Will robo umps make it more of a possibility?
Steve Adams
1:41
No. I think pitchers and defensive positioning are far too good today to make a .400 season plausible..
Brian overton
1:42
Will the rays be soft buyers or full on sellers coming up ?
Steve Adams
1:43
They won't be full sellers. They'll likely listen on some expensive veterans (e.g. Arozarena, Yandy, Fairbanks) and take an open mind to those offers. They could move someone like Eflin, Littell or Civale, knowing they can be replaced by Tyler Alexander or a returning Shane Baz/Jeffrey Springs.

But in terms of a "trade everyone and start over!!!" mentality? That won't happen, no/.
St. Louis
1:43
Thomas Saggese, Victor Scott, Jimmy Crooks, and Quinn Mathews for Crochet and Robert? Who’s saying no?
Steve Adams
1:44
I don't think that would get Crochet alone (maybe not even Robert alone), let alone both.
Preller
1:45
If we intended to and did sign Soto to an extension and not just use him as a rental, the trade wound have not  been one sided. But since we didn’t, and turned Soto around for far less than what was given up, the move is a loser for the Friars. Preller should be fired for this and many other moves.
Steve Adams
1:46
It's not really Preller's call whether to sign Soto to an extension. That's an ownership decision, and as we know, ownership context very sadly changed between the acquisition of Soto and the trade of Soto.

Furthermore, I don't think it's a one-sided deal. The Padres basically have 40% of their current rotation from that trade. Michael King came over from the Yankees in return for Soto, and Drew Thorpe was flipped to the White Sox in the Dylan Cease trade.

The Padres still have plenty of big league value coming from that trade.
Andy from Blaine
1:47
I keep seeing FV attached to a prospect's ranking or value. Forgive my ignorance...what does that mean?
Steve Adams
1:52
Future Value -- it's just a broad term for where the player ranks on the 20-80 scouting scale. There's basically no such thing as an 80 prospect, and 70s are immensely rare. The top-10 on most lists are generally in the 60 range, guys more on the back of those lists are 50s.

I think one common misconception is that everyone who's on a top-100 list is thus being projected for stardom. A lot of these lists are basically just saying "Here's a bunch of guys who should have solid big league careers," but the only ones ticketed for stardom are the 60-grade names in the top-20 or so.

That's a very off-the-cuff answer, but you can just search for prospect FV, 20-80 scouting, etc. and get a quick crash course on what some of those terms mean
John
1:53
Who would cost more: Miller or crochet?
Steve Adams
1:53
Who should have the higher cost in a trade?
Garrett Crochet (53.5% | 175 votes)
 
Mason Miller (46.5% | 152 votes)
 
Total Votes: 327
1:55
I lean slightly toward Miller just because the five seasons of club control is so unprecedented for a star-caliber player this time of year (or any time!). But Crochet has been so, so good ... I'm sure you wouldn't even get a universal answer on this if you polled all 30 GMs/Presidents of baseball ops, which makes this a fun question.
Junior Caminero
1:55
Will the Rays just wait until a September call up to preserve his rookie eligibility for 2025?
Steve Adams
1:56
Caminero hasn't played since May 28 and was going to be on the IL 4-6 weeks at the time of his injury. I imagine he'll be an option before September but probably not until late July/early August.
Brewers
1:56
Is a Y. Kikuchi trade possible without sending back any of our four Top 100 prospects?
Steve Adams
1:56
Yeah I don't think Kikuchi's value is quite that high
big mike
1:57
Toglia (rockies) has a xwoba of 341 and a real woba of 284. His babip is 195. Having watched the last 2 games he's bashing the ball and nothing seems to fall in. Does he have the makings of a serial xwoba underperformer or is he the rox' 1B for years to come?
Steve Adams
2:01
I have a hard time getting behind this type of prospect ... bat-heavy prospect with middling walk rates and huge strikeout rates. He's helped by the fact that  he's a good defender at first base, but I want to see some more of his minor league walk rates transfer to the majors.

Also, a 39% contact rate on pitches off the plate is brutal. He chases less than your standard hitter, but that's like a 10th percentile mark.
2:02
All of which is to say, there's a chance he becomes their everyday 1B, yes. He probably should have better numbers than he does. But I'm also not super bullish on him in general.
Thomas
2:02
Brewers starting rotation is somehow being held together with duct tape. Any chance they move one of these young OFs for a SP?
Steve Adams
2:04
I think they'll be open to that but it'd need to be someone with multiple years of control. More likely is a trade that excites no one and still pays off because Milwaukee seems to just have an innate ability to maximize the performance of some fringe pitchers.

I just don't think you're going to see the Brewers outbid the field for Garrett Crochet or anything.
Ding Dong
2:04
Where is Josh Bell going?
Steve Adams
2:06
I'm not convinced he'll be traded. There's no real value there. If the Marlins pay down the contract, maybe the Pirates will bring him back or maybe the Astros will take a look. But he's been a below-average hitter who doesn't have any real value with the glove and is being paid a pretty premium $16.5MM salary before becoming a free agent this winter. It's not a very appealing trade package.
Riddler
2:06
How many questions have you received along the lines of "will x team be buyers" "will x team be a sellers"?
Steve Adams
2:09
Like half the questions are just  "Will XYZ buy or sell" or "Where will [player] be traded?" or "Tell me which prospects it will take to get Garrett Crochet."

And I understand the nature of those questions and everything, but it's disingenuous to act like there's a real, defined answer when all of those things are in a constant state of fluidity. Jed Hoyer runs Cubs baseball ops, and even he doesn't know whether he'll buy or sell. Chris Getz is the White Sox GM, but even he can't tell you who's going to headline a potential Crochet trade.

I'm always happy to give my opinions on whether something is realistic, but no one can peg down exactly the type of package Crochet+Robert is going to command with any modicum of certainty.
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