JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 8/13/24

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 8/13/24

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Steve Adams

1:33

Doubt he's getting the QO and yes I think he'd accept

Elias

1:34

Any pitching going to be available on the wire? Sadly I Probably won't get a chance to claim anyone

Steve Adams

1:35

(Mike Elias is the Orioles' GM)

Yeah, I don't think any meaningful upgrades are going to fall all the way to the Orioles. Maybe there's a situation where a non-contending team just tries to purge a contract it doesn't want (Tigers and Kenta Maeda or something), but it's not likely to be someone who's particularly good this season and probably wouldn't be something the O's want to do anyhow.

Nick

1:36

Jackson Chourio's been on a tear since June 1. Not too bad of a season for a 20 year old, yeh?

Steve Adams

1:36

Jackson Chourio is good at baseball. Yes.

Bud Black

1:36

Should the Rockies just bite the bullet and release Bryant? Seems like he just can't stay healthy for any prolonged period of time.

Steve Adams

1:38

The Rockies aren't good anyway, and they still have to pay him the full freight if they release him. He's not exactly blocking a long line of young prospects who are clearly big league ready.

I don't think they're going to get much/any value out of him, but I also don't think there's a compelling case that they need to cut him loose with four years left on the contract right now. You can argue it's sunk-cost fallacy, but they might as well see if they can salvage some value in 2025 and beyond.

It'd be another story if they were contending in spite of him. They're not, and they're not close to doing so either.

Steve E

1:39

Steve, I know you're not MLBTR's fantasy baseball wonk, but is the hulking Jerar Encarnacion worth a flier in an NL-only roto league? Pickings are thin, unlike Jerar himself.

Steve Adams

1:39

Always depends who you're cutting, but yeah I'd say so. He's decimated Mexico and AAA this year, hit well in 37 PAs since being called up in SF, and has pretty alluring batted-ball metrics

1:40

I don't expect him to be 2024's version of Jose Bautista or anything, but I doubt you're cutting anyone meaningful to really find out at this point.

Disgruntled Sox Fan

1:40

Steve, give White Sox fans something to look forward to in 2025, PLEASE!!!!!!

Steve Adams

1:42

Bunch of interesting young pitchers in Noah Schultz, Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Jake Eder, Nick Nastrini, Jonathan Cannon, etc. They're not all having great years, but still.

And they'll get more kids back when they trade Crochet and maybe Robert this winter.

Billy Singer

1:42

River Ryan needs TJS two starts after reaching career high in pitches, 91. Most likely related right?

Steve Adams

1:43

There's nothing to prove that's causation rather than simple, random correlation.

Blue Jays

1:43

Shapiro is delusional if he thinks another run to make the playoffs is going to work.

Steve Adams

1:46

They'd need a lot to break right, but if Vlad maintains, Bichette rebounds, and they get solid outcomes out of Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt, it's not the craziest exec stance I can recall. (Dick Monfort once proclaimed the Rockies a 94-win team in spring training, after all. ...They lost 100)

That said, I don't think it's likely, and as I wrote a couple weeks back, I think they should've been doing more than just selling off impending free agents:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/blue-jays-trade-rumors-vladimir...

So, I don't know that I'd go as far as "delusional," but..... I also agree that 2025 is a long shot at best

Reds

1:47

Would it make any sense to see a Candelario for Castellanos straight-up trade in the off season?

Steve Adams

1:47

I'd bet on the younger and less expensive Candelario rebounding over Castellanos, personally.

Joc Pederson

1:48

What am I worth on the market for next season? 3 years/40 million?

Steve Adams

1:49

Pederson's having a pretty comparable season to the one he had two years ago, after which he accepted an $18.9MM QO. The market has never once valued him as a guy worth investing multiple years, and he's now 32 going on 33. I think at best you'd be looking at 2/28 or so. If someone offered him three years he'd probably jump the moment it was offered.

Mooooo

1:50

Will Cowser win AL ROTY?

Steve Adams

1:52

Right now I imagine it's him, Luis Gil and Wilyer Abreu near the top of the list (probably forgetting someone, so call it out if you like). Austin Wells maybe, but he's played in far fewer games.

Of that group, I'd say Cowser is probably the leading candidate, yes, but not by so much that someone can't catch him with a huge finish.

Simon

1:53

How likely would a Juan Soto nationals reunion be in free agency

Steve Adams

1:54

I wouldn't call it likely, but the Nats have the payroll space and since it'd be the type of weird baseball chaos that I absolutely adore, that's my offseason hope. The Nats returning to prominence on the back of Juan Soto and several of the kids they traded Juan Soto to acquire would be delightfully strange.

I'd also settle for him just signing with like the Reds or Twins or Pirates on some insane deal no one thought a team like that would ever offer and thus breaking everyone's brains, haha.

I like my offseasons chaotic!

Optimistic Clevelander

1:54

Noel will regress but Thomas will go on a hot streak

Steve Adams

1:56

Yeah, I'm not a huge Lane Thomas guy but there's just no way he's this bad. I think he's best used as a platoon guy or at least a fourth OF who doesn't see the lineup against every righty, but Thomas also isn't a 40 K% guy and he's been really unlucky on the balls he HAS put into play with the Guards

Josh

1:56

Does Mason Miller get moved this off-season

Steve Adams

1:56

I lean against it, but teams will try, of course.

Curious george

1:57

Is Santander Plan B for those who miss out on Soto?

Steve Adams

1:57

I don't really think there's a "Plan B" if you miss on Soto. Great as Santander

Ooops

Great as Santander's season has been, he's just not an apples-to-apples replacement.

1:59

There'll be teams who aggressively pursue Soto and have minimal interest in Santander, because Soto is a freak as a 25-year-old free agent, where Santander is a power-over-OBP corner bat whose value would tank if he lost any bat speed and/or started struggling with velocity in the zone. He'll be 30 in October. Soto will be 30 in Year 5 of his free agent contract.

2:00

Soto walks nearly three times as often. Even if the hit tool or power takes a step back, you know he's going to be an offensive force still. Santander is the type of bat modern front offices will be reluctant to bet on. I still think he'll get a nice contract, but I don't think it's at all a lock to be nine figures, especially since the QO will impact him in a way that it doesn't at all impact Soto

inprellerwetrust

2:01

for all the bad said over the last years i think AJ has done a great job this year

Steve Adams

2:02

Padres are relevant almost every year under Preller's weird brand of chaos. He takes a lot of hate for making the headline-grabbing moves and falling shy of the World Series, but I think he's good on a big-picture level even if I also cringe at some of the signings they make.

Danny

2:03

Super Bowl prediction?

Steve Adams

2:03

I predict that I will watch it and that my wife will want me to make buffalo chicken dip.

My questions never get chosen

2:04

Cade Smith gets ROTY votes?

Steve Adams

2:04

He should. He won't win it, but man, what a quietly awesome debut season.