JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 8/30/22

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 8/30/22

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Steve Adams

11:32

There's a good chance he stays in STL, yes, but it'll require them amending the back end of that deal -- either adding another year or greatly upping the salary on the final season. The Cards tacked on a year and $15MM when they traded for him. At worst, Arenado should use the opt-out as leverage to add another $20MM or so to that season.

He has 5/144 left on the contract, though, and I feel like he could get something like $40-60MM more on the open market if he opted out (likely over a six-year term).

11:34

It's fair to say this is reading too much into things, but since all we can do regarding Arenado is speculate right now...... when he was traded to St. Louis, he said before the season even began that he didn't plan to opt out and that he hoped to remain in St. Louis for the long haul. When he was asked just this past week about his second opt-out, he sidestepped the question and said he hasn't thought about it.

Jeff in Jersey

11:34

Do you think DeGrom's doing the smart thing by opting out? Is someone going to beat two years and $64m with his injury history?

Steve Adams

11:35

If deGrom is healthy for the rest of the year he's going to earn more than double $64MM in free agency.

Yadi

11:35

Does my buddy Albert get to 700?

Steve Adams

11:35

At this point it seems like an easy yes, barring a very unfortunate injury.

Ha SS eong Kim

11:35

Does Machado opt out of Padres collapse again this year?

Steve Adams

11:35

His opt-out isn't until next winter

11:36

After the 2023 season

There will be many, many more factors involved in that decision than San Diego's 2022 finish.

Harry Baer

11:36

If they can’t resign Rodon, what pitchers do you see the Giants pursue to fill out the rotation? Webb seems to need a strong top of the rotation arm with him to be comfortable as an ace. And I don’t see Desclafani and Wood sticking around.

Steve Adams

11:40

DeSclafani and Wood are signed through 2023 (2024 in Disco's case). Jakob Junis is controlled through 2023. Alex Cobb is signed through 2023.

I think the Giants will still look to augment the rotation and will be in the mix on some notable starters, but they're going to have to look at addressing the lineup and revamping the bullpen as well.

Also, if you're pursuing a Verlander, deGrom, etc. -- it's a tougher sell to join a team that fell well short of expectations. The next tier of arms (Bassitt, Eovaldi, etc.) seems more feasible if they go the FA SP route.

Bob

11:41

Any big or semi-big FAs you see the O's targetting in the offseason? Will they spend this offseason or wait until next?

Steve Adams

11:42

I don't think they're going to dive right into the deep end of free agency; Elias specifically mentioned how arbitration raises were going to play a notable part in upping next year's payroll. I do think they'll do more than they did this past offseason, of course.

I think it'd be wild if they went ahead and signed Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts or something... I just think it's likelier they add some mid-tier pitching and take another year to see how the top names in their farm develop and fare in their first extended look versus big league competition.

Nats Fan

11:44

Walking is cool, but SLG is cooler. Regarding Soto, he hasn't hit for much power this season. He seems so focused on owning the strike zone that I feel like his power #s struggle. Is someone really gonna shell out crazy money for a guy that primarily just walks?

Steve Adams

11:46

Soto has 24 home runs and a .230 ISO (slugging minus average). He's hitting for MORE power than he did in 2021, when he had a .221 ISO. Last year's slugging percentage was partially propped up by the fact that he hit more singles (and thus had a higher batting average). ISO is a better measure of pure power output than slugging. Soto came into the season with a career .249 mark and is at .230, so he's down a bit -- but the league as a whole has seen a 15 point drop in ISO this season.

And yes, someone is going to shell out flabbergasting amounts of money for Soto, so long as he remains healthy.

Elbert

11:46

Can Alex Reyes be the Cardinals closer for 2023?

Steve Adams

11:47

I don't see how anyone can count on Reyes to be healthy at this point.

Joey Votto

11:48

I'm not a Hall of Famer. No .300 AVG, 2100 hits, 350 HR. Almost no black type in the counting categories. Terrible defensively. Bad in limited postseason.

Steve Adams

11:49

Nearly 23,000 people have played a Major League Baseball game. Exactly thirty-two of them have gotten on base at a higher clip than Joey Votto. Easy Hall of Famer for me.

Chris Ilitch

11:50

So...who will I hire for GM?

Steve Adams

11:51

Even Chris Ilitch (the TIgers' owner) doesn't know the answer to that yet! Anyone at this point would just be a random guess.

Spencer Strider

11:51

Can I just get my ROY now so we don't have to waste everyone's time?

Steve Adams

11:52

Might go to your teammate, Spence.

Sam

11:52

Is Rocco on the hot seat? I think Twins fans are pretty critical of him this season, especially when he yanks starters early.

Steve Adams

11:53

Most teams in the league yank starters early, and Chris Archer was signed with the express intent of being yanked early. His contract has incentives based on appearances of three innings or more.

11:54

No, I don't think Baldelli is on the hot seat. But I live in Minnesota and hear people get angry about it all the time ... while choosing not to recognize that average start in MLB this season is shorter than 5 1/3 innings.

Steve

11:55

What’s most likely for Contreras.. accepts qualifier, extension, or signs in free agency

Steve Adams

11:55

Signs a four- or five-year deal with a non-Cubs team in free agency after rejecting a QO.

Jeff

11:55

Carlos Rodon…O/U 4/120?

Steve Adams

11:56

Depends if he finishes strong or has a similar fade to the one he experienced in 2021, when he didn't throw more than 5 innings in a start after late July and pitched like 35 total innings in Aug/Sept -- all with diminished velocity.

11:57

If he finishes healthy and dominant, I think he can get a 5-year deal but don't think he's getting 30 annually, as you suggested there. I see him as a step above Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman in that scenario

Ross Stripling

12:00

He’s having a sneaky good year, what does his market look like this offseason

Steve Adams

12:01

He's also going to turn 33 in November, averages under 92 mph on his heater, has a below-average strikeout rate. I like Stripling a lot, but he's not the kind of guy front offices are going to value at a premium. I could see him getting a couple years in the $8-10MM range.

Craig

12:01

Hey Steve, what are the odds that the Red Sox make a legit push for Judge in the off season? I feel like management needs to "prove" to their fan base they are financially committed and Judge could be the star that proves that. Thoughts?

Steve Adams

12:02

They lowballed both Xander and Devers in extension talks... I don't see them beating the field for Judge (or even coming all that close, if they try at all)

MoonBeamMcSwine

12:04

Julio Rodriguez is the clear ALROY leader.. but the first two in that vote get the incentive.. who's # 2 in the race?..Stevie Kwan?

Steve Adams

12:04

Adley, Kwan, Kirby all come to mind

TxDude

12:04

How about Nathaniel Lowe? He’s been crazy good this season. Can he continue this type of production in the future?

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