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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/17/19
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Matt
3:26
Chance Rendon tops the Robinson Cano/Albert Pujols deals?
Steve Adams
3:28
I don't think he'll approach either in length, and I think he'll fall shy in total dollars as well. But in terms of annual salary, he'll clear $24MM. Boras is going to use the Arenado deal as a point of reference, but that feels steep to me.
Lunch Break
3:28
Which extension for the Twins is most likely to happen this offseason? Buxton, Sano, Rosario, or Garver?
Steve Adams
3:30
Rosario hasn't been very good, and the Twins have an elite OF prospect not far away in Kirilloff. I don't think keeping him is going to be a huge priority, popular as he may be. Garver turns 29 in July and is already controlled through 2023. There's no need to extend him.

Buxton is the priority of that bunch, and I'd bet they make another run at Jose Berrios as well.
Could gauge Taylor Rogers' interest in buying out his arb years and tacking on an option or something as well.
Caleb
3:31
Nobody is talking about this.  Where do you think Josh Donaldson is heading?
Steve Adams
3:33
I've answered at least one Donaldson question every week for awhile now. I think the Braves will make a push to keep him, and any team that misses on Rendon will have interest. Off the cuff, some possible other spots: Rangers, Nationals (if Rendon walks), Angels, Dodgers, Phillies
Rick Hahn
3:33
Would it be a terrible idea for me to try to sign Rendon and move Moncada back to 2nd?
Steve Adams
3:35
(Rick Hahn = White Sox GM)

I almost listed the White Sox for Donaldson but kind of stopped short for that reason. I think they're pretty happy with how Moncada has handled 3B this season and are pretty inclined to leave him there.
Aaron Judge
3:35
Could a 10 year, $250MM extension and a captain title keep me in NY?
Steve Adams
3:38
Probably, but he's not even arb-eligible yet, so they're paying near-market price for free agent years way in advance with that deal, and he hasn't been the most durable player. I don't think they need to go to that length or overall guarantee. I mean, even Mookie Betts is going to make like $60M in arb, and he's been healthier and better than Judge.

Judge might top out around $40MM in arb, at which point, with the $250M total you suggested, you're talking like $30MM per year through Judge's age-38 season ... that doesn't seem like a great deal for the Yankees.
3:39
Phillies just announced that Dickerson is out for the season with a foot fracture.
Going to get a quick headline on that up and jump back into the chat. One minute.
3:43
And back
Rick Hahn
3:43
Not that I disagree with your assessment of Moncada, but shouldn't I be trying to land an elite player or two and worry about the positional fits later?
Steve Adams
3:46
Sure, but the bidding for Rendon is going to be substantial and the Sox have other needs. You could certainly make it work, but there are also plenty of other areas to spend the resources they'll have allotted to them.
Jorge78
3:46
Hi Steve!  Thanks for chatting!  Do you get tired of commenters saying "...who says no?" after a trade scenario?
Steve Adams
3:47
Meh, it's just sort of how things are phrased commonly. I don't really think much of about the phrasing when it's framed as such, honestly.
Nashy
3:48
What does Brock Holt get in free agency? Is he more valuable to the Sox than anyone else?
Steve Adams
3:49
I can't see him getting much more than $5-6MM per year over two seasons.
pumpsie
3:49
Arbitrators seem to love those big power hitters. Why wouldn't Judge top Betts in arbitration earnings? Does the difference between 1st or 2nd in MVP voting matter that much? I'd say Judge is easily over $50MM.
Steve Adams
3:50
Home runs, RBIs and batting average are indeed huge in arbitration settings, but so are games played.
Judge has played 205 games over the past two seasons right now as it is.
Whosyourdaddy
3:51
Chance that padres trade eric Hosmer?
Steve Adams
3:51
No one is touching that contract.
Lou4hof184
3:51
Will ron gardenhire be back no  extension  yet
Steve Adams
3:51
Believe Avila said over the weekend he'll be back in 2020. Beyond that, who knows?
Jimmy V
3:52
Hi Steve.  Who has the most realistic chance at AL MVP, should the voters take into account that Trout doesn't make the LAA a contender (regardless of his video game-esque numbers) and that he will not play a full season?  He is a generational talent, no doubt, but other players deserve their legitimate shot at the hardware.  My vote order would be: Bregman, Trout, Bogaerts.  Thoughts?
Steve Adams
3:53
If I were going to "draft" a team, with the benefit of hindsight, based on the 2019 season, I'd take Trout over any AL player with the first pick. The best player is the most valuable to me, and I don't think there's any reason Trout should be punished based on the fact that the Angels stunk.
Buddy
3:53
Please tell me that arbitrators aren't looking at RBI's! It's 2019, not 1979.
Steve Adams
3:54
Arbitration is archaic and outdated
It's the only setting where RBIs, pitcher Wins, etc. still play a role in a player's salary. Front offices don't care.
Nick
3:55
Even 40 MM in arbitration seems excessive for Judge.  As you just noted, HRs and RBI are important in arbitration, and in this, his platform year, Judge is currently tied for 79th and 175th in the league in those categories.
Steve Adams
3:55
First time through arbitration, career numbers are looked at more closely than solely the platform year's numbers.
3:56
In trips two and three, the platform year becomes increasingly important.
Billington
3:56
Steve why haven't the Rays gotten respect or recognition for their steller season.  No news, no articles from ESPN, MLB or Mlbtraderumors.  Small market = small stories?
Steve Adams
3:57
It's been like two weeks since Dylan Chase wrote about how remarkable their annual approach to roster construction is
Jhair
3:57
Will Rendon be a FA or any extension talks with Nats?
Steve Adams
3:57
They've talked extension several times with no deal. At this point, I don't see why he wouldn't reach free agency.
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