JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/5/23

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 9/5/23

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Blake Snell

1:24

Am I going to get another Cy Young award? What does my next contract look like?

Steve Adams

1:27

At this point, he's probably going to finish in the top three. Final month of the season seems like it'll be particularly telling with regard to the NL Cy voting.

I have a hard time seeing a guy who walks 14% of his opponents being named Cy Young, but the innings, K's and ERA will all be there. And if you're someone who puts value in RA9-WAR, then Snell's had the best results of anyone in either league by a long shot.

1:27

What type of contract do you see Ryan OHearn getting next year.

Steve Adams

1:27

The O's control him via arbitration still. He's only due a raise on this year's $1.4MM salary. He'll probably end up under $4MM on a one-year deal.

John

1:28

Playoff baseball is better in the cold weather, right?

Steve Adams

1:28

Playoff baseball rules, period.

2019...long ago

1:29

If Rendon were cut by the Angel's, I assume there'd be people lined up to take a flier?

Steve Adams

1:30

If he were released, any team could sign him for the league minimum, so yeah even with the recent struggles and injuries, I think you'd have plenty of teams willing to take that flier.

Standings

1:30

What team record has surprised you the most?

Steve Adams

1:32

Flip a coin between the Padres and the Mets -- I go back and forth on which is more disappointing, but the reality is they're both pretty stunning

Cardinals up there too

Ca$hman

1:32

What percentage of Staton’s contract would I need to eat to move him? Is 70% enough? Think Hal will do it?

Steve Adams

1:33

90% or more

1:35

Stanton turns 34 this offseason and has 4/128 left on his contract. I suppose Miami is paying $12MM of that, so you can call it 4/116. He's not getting a fraction of that as a free agent. Even eating 80% of it still leaves a new team with Stanton's age-34 through age-37 seasons at a total of $24MM, and he's hitting .208/.290/.453 with a 30% strikeout rate since 2022

Guest

1:35

would you give Bellinger $200m. After several bad season. Then one good one?

Steve Adams

1:36

I don't think it's a good idea, but I think someone will.

RedSoxFan

1:36

With Boston all but eliminated from this season’s postseason, and pitching being a big reason why (Bello being the exception), what can the Sox do this offseason to improve their chances to make the playoffs next year? There doesn’t seem to be a lot of top tier arms available via free agency, and there’s little help coming anytime soon from our farm system.

Steve Adams

1:39

This is one of the deepest classes of free agent SP in recent memory, although several of the names (e.g. Giolito, Nola) are having pretty lackluster years. Even still... Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez -- there are lots of good names out there, and that's before getting to the next tier with guys like Lorenzen or rebound hopefuls with high ceilings (Severino, Montas)

Halos

1:40

does the Velasquez claim get the Halos under the threshold?

Steve Adams

1:41

He's still in his pre-arb years (by the narrowest of margins)

Brandon

1:41

Do you see Bader and Renfroe sticking with the Reds next season? If they stay and the Reds add a quality SP vet and BP arm they could be dangerous next season

Steve Adams

1:43

They're both free agents, and I doubt the Reds' priority is going to be to sign hitters coming off so-so seasons when they have such a need in the rotation.

Renfroe's older and has less defensive value, so maybe he'd be amenable to a short-term deal to stay. I still think Bader will get a nice multi-year deal and doubt that the Reds will feel compelled to be near the top of the bidding for him

Bruce

1:44

Stripling, Manaea and Conforto can all opt out after this season. All three have been underwhelming. Do you see any of them opting out?

Steve Adams

1:46

It's a thin market for hitters and Conforto is batting well enough over his past 160-170 PAs (.288/.373/.404) that I can see if if he finishes well. Stripling and Manaea have both been better since ugly starts to the year, but it's tougher for me to see those two declining their player options

1:47

Stripling does have a 3.91 ERA, 18.9% strikeout rate and (lol) 0.5% walk rate since coming off the injured list. If he can have 4-5 nice outings of five or more frames down the stretch, he seems likelier to me

Pads fan

1:48

Wacha, Lugo and Martinez can all opt out at season's end. Do you see all of them doing so? What kind of contracts are they looking at getting?

Steve Adams

1:48

Sure let's do Padres opt outs, too!

1:51

Lugo seems like a pretty easy call to decline his 7.5MM player option

Wacha might not get the chance to opt out; Padres can exercise a two-year, $32MM option for 2024-25, and he's probably pitched well enough for them to give strong consideration to that.

Martinez has the same two-year club option, but I think that'll get declined. From there, I imagine he'd opt to pick up his two-year, $16MM player option.

Walter

1:52

If Bieber proves to be healthy going into the off season and ??? About Othani and Urias, how much does his trade value increase. Or do the Guardians use him until trade deadline?

Steve Adams

1:54

It's still just one season of Bieber, with some legitimate questions about his health, a notable velocity decline (even prior to the injury), etc.

Bieber is striking out fewer than half the opponents he was during his Cy Young season. His swinging-strike rate is down from 17% to 10%. I just don't think other clubs are going to view him as an ace -- particularly not with the late injury.

He'd have value, but it feels more like a Kluber situation when they traded him, where the name value was strong but the eventual return wasn't what it would've been at peak value. (Of course, they went the risky route, built that trade around a high-upside but volatile reliever in Emmanuel Clase, and it's worked out great. I hated it for Cleveland at the time, admittedly)

And that's not a knock on Clase -- just the reality that bullpen prospects are about as unpredictable as it gets

Sell

1:56

Montas comes back to Oakland to eat innings for a painfully inexperienced pitching staff just to be flipped again? Who says no?

Steve Adams

1:56

If the A's offer the most money, I don't see why he wouldn't be open to it.

I just... can't see the A's offering the most money.

Tom Kelly's blues

1:56

Sonny. 3 years, $69?

Steve Adams

1:57

I think he's pitching himself closer to like 4/100ish, but I think there are others on the MLBTR team who'd be more in your range

rocco rox

1:57

Kris Bryant for Stanton

Steve Adams

2:00

Doubt you're getting Stanton to waive his NTC to go to the Rox, but hey, there's at least one scenario where the acquiring team would be willing to take on the whole Stanton obligation.

Also, thanks to those who pointed out my inaccuracy on the sum the Marlins are paying out to the Yankees. I was going by the prorated number of that $30MM sum, which is being calculated over 10 years for luxury tax purposes (e.g. $3MM per year). But the payouts all come in bulk after the current season, so yeah, the Marlins are kicking in a full $30MM still.

2:01

I still think he'd need to cost a new team under $20MM, and getting him to waive the NTC doesn't seem easy.

Ohtani

2:02

A two-time TJ pitcher + DH is going to sign the highest contract ever?

Steve Adams

2:03

A hitter who's among the three to five best in baseball and is two years younger than Judge was when he was a free agent? Yeah, I think so.

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