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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--2/13/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:01
Let's get things rolling, but first a few plugs.
2:02
Here's my post on how the Red Sox aren't actually getting much tax savings by dealing Betts and Price. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-do-the-red-sox-actually-save-by-tradi...
2:03
And I've written two posts on the minor league contraction situation. The first one is on getting rid of short-season baseball. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/untangling-a-minor-league-mess-part-i/
The second is on efficiency, the cost of efficiency, and the government. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/untangling-a-minor-league-mess-part-ii/
2:04
I'll have a third part up on the individual teams up for contraction at some point today or tomorrow.
Ben
2:04
What would the Rangers’ best offer be if they earnestly pursued Bryant?
Craig Edwards
2:07
I think the Rangers are a great fit for Bryant, but it is hard to put together a good trade match given what the Rangers currently have. The Rangers might be a team willing to take on Chatwood's final year to bring down prospect cost and then if you start with yerry rodriguez and then add a couple 45-types, that seems fair though might not be incredibly appealing for the Cubs.
Pumpsie Green
2:07
More teams in the playoffs seems to have worked for other leagues. Even the NHL, which could easily have disappeared into the mists of time, has held it's spot among the big four. It's worked in other sports, why not baseball?
Craig Edwards
2:08
In the NHL, playoffs are the hockey season. It's unique in that respect in a good way. Whatever team makes it to the end of the year with the Cup doesn't have to worry about having earned the title no matter what they did in the regular season.
2:09
In the NBA, more playoffs leads to more games on tv that networks love and doesn't lead to random upsets because the talent disparity is wide, particularly in a seven-game series.
2:11
For baseball, expanded playoffs takes a way some of the importance of the regular season. Ben Clemens just wrote a really good post on that, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-playoff-format-would-disincentiviz... plus due to the format the postseason would be more randomized in terms of outcomes and the general lack of a talent spread in baseball.
Ben
2:11
Where would put the chances of Kimbrel bouncing back and having a good year.  That would go a long way for CHC.
Craig Edwards
2:12
He's a reliever so there's a decent chance he'll be better.
Ben
2:12
Does Mookie top Trout in total guarantee once he reaches the open market?
Craig Edwards
2:14
If you are including the two guaranteed years he already had on the deal, which took it to $420 million, I'd say probably not. And that's one aspect of the rumored $300 M that Betts was supposedly offered. He was already set to make $50 M in arbitration. If the Red Sox offer was for "only" $250 million in money beyond arbitration, then the offer was pretty weak. As to whether Betts tops $360 million or so, I think that will be pretty close to what he receives.
Oil of Zolay
2:15
[ ] KB for Arenado rumors have popped back up, and on second thought I dont think it's as crazy as I originally assumed. There will be money and prospects to figure out, but the basic framework kinda makes sense to me if NA is willing to opt-in for the sake of going to a better situation. Cubs lock down a core piece without having to do the negotiation legwork and the Rockies get off a huge financial commitment during a noncompetitive window. Plus if KB rakes at Coors they can flip him for a prospect haul at the deadline that could be as large (or even larger) than what they would get for NA since KB carries less financial risk for the acquiring team. And if the Rockies find themselves surprisingly competitive or think their prospects are ahead of schedule, they get a two year window to decide if maybe it's worth it to commit the money that was earmarked for NA to KB instead. Thoughts?
Craig Edwards
2:18
It's hard to figure because I don't know that Colorado would want to give up Arenado+ or Arenado and cash for Bryant when Arenado is better. You have to wonder if the Cubs want to give Arenado $35 M+ with Baez set to hit free agency in two seasons. There are aspects of the trade that are worth exploring, but the fit is kind of a weird one.
Ben
2:19
Over/Under 95.5 wins in HOU with Dusty at the helm?
Craig Edwards
2:19
I worry a little about starting pitching depth, particularly if Verlander ages somewhat, but I probably go over at this point.
scully's silky sound
2:20
between alex wood, julio urias, jimmy nelson, dustin may and ross stripling, who do you think fills out the #4 & #5 spots in LAD rotation? Urias and May have the ceilings, but others are more proven?
Craig Edwards
2:21
All of them, probably. In terms of expected starts, I'd go May, Stripling, Urias, Wood, Nelson just due to injury concerns, but all will get a chance.
Ben
2:23
Who is the next young star to get a big extension?
Craig Edwards
2:23
Tatis Jr. maybe.
Ben
2:24
If you had to chose one guy to pitch one game, who you got?  I think i have The Big Unit.
Craig Edwards
2:26
Relative to peers, Bob Gibson. In today's environment, probably just go with deGrom or Scherzer.
Ben
2:26
First overall pick in the All-Time Third bademan draft?
Craig Edwards
2:26
Schmidt.
Pumpsie Green
2:26
Yankees rotation still looks old and shallow. Would they have been better to spread that Cole money around a bit?
Craig Edwards
2:27
Not really. They have a stacked roster that should make the playoffs so having Cole ready to pitch in the playoffs is arguably more important. If they need depth in season, they can just trade for it.
brad
2:28
Craig, what happens if a player comes out and says I saww altuve wearing a wire in game 6 of the ALCS?  How bad does this get then?
Craig Edwards
2:28
Time get Griggs, Freeman and McNulty to investigate.
2:29
I think we probably end up with more suspensions fines, etc. particularly for lying and in this case could lead to player suspensions for the same.
mervdiddy
2:30
What advice do you have for passionate fans of teams involved in the sign-stealing cheating scandal who also care deeply about the integrity of the sport?
Craig Edwards
2:31
Don't spend any time defending the team and their record or World Series. Just start watching the games again and cheer them on. If you feel the need to not support the club financially, that's fine. If you want to relish in a heel turn, that's fine, too, but do not defend what's already happened. Focus on the game now.
GSon
2:32
Does MLB take up the reigns of financially backing College Baseball in lieu of funding the losing MiLB franchise business model?
Craig Edwards
2:32
I don't see that happening.
Roy Hobbs
2:32
Asking a question for my son, best starting staff in the majors right now; Yanks, LAD, WAS, HOU, or other????
Craig Edwards
2:33
Depth charts says Nationals https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP and I don't have a compelling reason to disagree with that.
SirMoox
2:33
So if Betts trade seemingly makes no sense? Is there something we're missing?
Craig Edwards
2:33
As long as you aren't missing that the Red Sox just increased their profits a ton this season, no, I think you got it all.
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