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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--2/13/2020
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Lars
2:36
The projected 2020 standings here, are those up to date or no? Brewers at 89 wins, Reds at 75, White Sox 72?
Craig Edwards
2:37
Go to the last section. It only has win percentage. I'm not sure everything is fully updated and ZiPS hasn't been incorporated, nor have all the signings from Asia, but multiply the W% by 162 for a rough total right now. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
Astros
2:37
What will last longer, the Astros' imaginary "everyone is against us" motivation, or the fans' jeering?
Craig Edwards
2:38
Well, everybody is against is us isn't imaginary and it is going to last a while. Nobody believed in us, however, is imaginary, and that's going to last an unfortunately long time.
Ryan E
2:39
Did Arte Moreno really kill Joc/Stripling deal just to be a hard ass? Seemed like a good deal for LAA, I know they were taking on money in that deal but seems like an odd move to kill given their depth on both sides of the ball.
Craig Edwards
2:39
I'm not sure we ever got the full deal, but it sure seems odd to pull the plug given how much it would have helped them.
T
2:40
Altuve's "MLB investigated the buzzers and didn't find anything" is a pretty weak denial.
Craig Edwards
2:40
I haven't seen the exact quotes, but at this point, anything other than a full denial doesn't make a lot of sense if you want to defend yourself.
DC
2:41
So Depth Charts has the Red Sox as a .560 team?
Craig Edwards
2:41
seems pretty close given their depth charts WAR though their starting pitch depth could make things way worse in a hurry.
Russell
2:42
Craig Edwards
2:42
there you go. that's a good denial
Kurupt FM
2:42
If you could make any change to the playoff structure would you?
Craig Edwards
2:42
I think if a wild card finished five game up on a division winner, the division winner should have to go to the wild card game.
Chris
2:43
Will the mariners deploy a 6 man rotation? Should they with the innings questions on graveman, walker, kikuchi, Dunn and Sheffield. And how would they balance that with Marco?
Craig Edwards
2:45
That sort of thing usually gets sorted out by the start of the season. The reason a 6-man rotation is so hard to pull off is that it is hard to find six guys go five innings. With a true ace, you can just pitch once every five days, sometimes six, and work everybody else around that. the 15-day option/DL rules for this year with the 13-man staff make it even harder to pull off.
Pumpsie Green
2:45
How about mlb-minimum pay for everyone on the 40-man? And set the minimum at $1 million, making the effective salary floor $40 million.
Craig Edwards
2:47
I'm sure raising the minimum is something that will be a big part of the next CBA, though it could be argued that more money should go to 3-6 service time guys as well as opposed to players who aren't in the majors but on the 40-man, who get paid a lot more than the rest of the minor leaguers already.
Johnny5Alive
2:47
its funny how baseball thinks that the playoff format is the problem and not the archaic blackout restrictions and the contraction of MiLB, which would essentially leave large swaths of the country without access to actual, you know, baseball
Craig Edwards
2:49
I don't think MLB thinks the current playoff system is a problem. It just happens that tv networks buying MLB packages like more playoff games because that's mainly what they are buying. Changing the playoff structure is a way to try and get more money from tv networks without changing anything else in the game. MLB might have made a mistake by scheduling the national tv deals and the CBA to end at the same time because they need player approval to make the changes they want.
Ryan
2:50
PECOTA projections on Dbacks, closer to the truth or underselling their squad?
Craig Edwards
2:52
I think they are roughly .500 on paper but have a lot of upside, particularly with respect to a Marte repeat, a breakout in the rotation, plus guys with low projections like Calhoun, Ahmed, Lamb/Walker. If their bullpen ends up being sneaky good, then they look a lot more like a 90-win team. Our depth chart projections https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=15 have them pretty close to .500 as well.
Pumpsie Green
2:52
The playoff format is a big part of the problem. Fans disengaged by July is a huge problem.
Craig Edwards
2:53
I don't think that has anything to do with the playoff format. The Phillies say they don't want to try and get to a wild card game just so they can play one game and then face the Dodgers. That's what the Nationals did.
2:54
It is teams opting not to try and win, claiming it is due to things like future flexibility or limited playoff chances when it is really just about saving money.
Springer McSpaniel
2:55
The Dodgers appear deep enough to run a 6 man rotation.  I guess my question is more: the the benefits of rest outweigh the cost of trotting out a guy who otherwise wouldnt make the rotation (say Urias)?  Dodgers case, given their offense and the strength of the 5th and 6th starter, it might.
Craig Edwards
2:56
The Dodgers would be an interesting test case, save for Buehler and Kershaw at the top of the rotation. Having two very good pitchers at the top makes it difficult to pull off. That's why we'll see pitchers at the back end of the rotation moving in and out of those spots to conserve innings rather than adding a sixth spot.
Cubbies
2:56
DO you expect Nick Solak to get much playing time this year? If so, is he a super UT type?
Craig Edwards
2:57
I think so. He's arguably the second best position player on the club so he should be able to find a bunch of playing time at multiple positions even if he isn't a full time starter anywhere.
T
2:57
What will be the status of the ball in 2020? Still juiced, or will it be backed down a little bit?
Craig Edwards
2:57
Who knows?
Johnny5Alive
2:58
Networks pay, but for how long? Cord cutting is becoming ever more pervasive, and the generation that still uses cable is going the way of the Dodo.  Their next contracts should be with Amazon and Facebook and Yahoo, not with Fox and TBS, etc.
Craig Edwards
2:59
MLB has long gone with taking the best offer. If amazon or facebook or whoever offers the most money, they'll take it. Cord cutting could get a lot worse, but Fox, ESPN, Turner are still likely to be the highest bidder to keep viewers tuned to their networks.
senor preller
3:00
If you were the Padres and wanted to go about using an opener strategy in 2020, how would you do so? They have the relief depth with a plethora of guys that can go multiple innings, with Lucchesi, Davies, Gore, Patino, and Quantrill looking like great bulker candidates as well.
Craig Edwards
3:02
I'm not sure they are the best team to do so but if one of their top-five guys goes down, piggybacking Quantril and Gore might make sense. The opener is best utilized when you have a guy who can't quite start, not a guy who you are  limiting innings. Give an inning to a reliever, then get 3 maybe 4 innings from the not-quite starter and go to the bullpen. It's a way to fill a starter spot if you are down a guy or two and don't want to just go to a bullpen game once or twice every five days.
Snid
3:04
When will Pederson be traded?
Craig Edwards
3:04
Soon, I would guess.
James
3:04
Feels like Manfred knows a lot more than he actually put out in that report
Craig Edwards
3:04
Certainly seems that way. Not looking good right now.
sodo mojo
3:05
Do you think the Evan White contract becomes the new model where teams try to lock up players before their debut while offer financial  security to the player?
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