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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--3/26/2020
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Dave
2:49
If the season is cancelled, wouldn’t it make sense to give teams the opportunity to unwind any trade made this offseason? If both teams decide to stand pat, great. But if say, the Dodgers object, they get Verdugo and Downs back. Fair?
Craig Edwards
2:52
That sounds very complicated. I think everyone just cuts their losses at that point. What do the Red Sox get in that situation? Can the Phillies get a little back on the J.T. Realmuto deal because they only got half the production. I think if the season is cancelled, everyone will have to take a step back and understand that the people involved matter more than the baseball moves. Betts deserves to be a free agent and that's going to matter more than the Dodgers being out a couple prospects. Everybody will just have to move on.
Jerome
2:53
I worry the A's might be one good bullpen arm short of true contention. What will the shortened schedule do to the trade deadline? When does it get pushed back to, and how will behavior at the deadline be unique? Hopefully not fewer sellers because my A's need more bullpen help.
Craig Edwards
2:54
I would think there would be fewer sellers just because it takes longer for teams to fall out of contention than we might have time for this year. That said, there are always relievers available so that's not something I would worry about.
Domingo
2:54
How much does the new draft format (only 5-10 rounds) hurt teams with high picks?
Craig Edwards
2:57
Not that much, because the biggest benefit to having a high pick is getting one of the best talents and that won't change. If the lack of scouting muddles things to the point where there is less certainty about those picks there is some penalty. A short draft also limits the opportunities to go underslot early and overslot late, but those opportunities present more marginal gain. Getting the best players is the biggest benefit to an early pick.
2:58
Arguably, the teams at the top need more players so a shortened draft prevents them from taking more shots, but that's again, a smaller deficit.
Bored
2:58
With fewer rounds are all but the elite high school prospects more likely to go to college? Also do fewer rounds incentivize teams to draft more college prospects in an attempt to secure value?
Craig Edwards
3:01
I'm not entirely sure how that will play out. In theory, players might have a little more leverage if teams don't want to lose out on one of their only picks, but that just means teams needing to be sure about a pick's cost ahead of time. That cuts against the riskier high school signings and more college players like you suggest, but it probably makes it so there will be fewer upside guys drafted in general, which would be unfortunate.
Matt Klentak
3:01
The limited undrafted bonus that is capped at 10k will force teams to take high school kids with the picks and keep college kids as "undrafted". The higher bonus will matter more to the high school kid than the college senior who doesnt have a choice but to sign
Craig Edwards
3:03
the college senior only goes in the first 10 rounds if a team is moving around bonus money, knowing they have 30 more rounds to draft $125k players. I would imagine that few, if any college seniors end up getting drafted. The college juniors still have some leverage.
I miss baseball
3:04
Who is the Dodgers' third-best position player this year?
Craig Edwards
3:04
The projections say Seager narrowly over Turner though Muncy has a shot as well. I think I'd still side with the projections and take Seager.
Uncle Spike
3:05
What do you make of the Rays optioning down McKay and Nate Lowe.  I was expecting both of these players, especially McKay, to break camp on the MLB roster.  Do you think we'll see quick promotions for both of them?
Craig Edwards
3:06
Probably wouldn't make much of it right now. We still have more spring training and we don't know what the early season schedule will look like.
Matt Klentak
3:06
I know everyone hates to look at the economic side of this but baseball is hurt as well, limiting the pay they give to draft picks is less debt they will have to make up. *ducks*
Craig Edwards
3:10
We are talking about $10 million per team turning into $6 million per team or something like that with another couple million over the next few years. As a fan of baseball, getting more talented players into professional baseball seems like it would be worth it. From a financial perspective, those later picks still pay off on the whole.
3:11
One quick plug, and then I'm out of here: I wrote on the possibility of expansion as a way for owners to make up for lost revenues in 2020. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/will-mlb-turn-to-expansion-after-losing-re...
3:12
Thanks for all the questions.
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