JotCast | Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--5/16/2019

Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--5/16/2019

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

MacK Gore

2:40

Will I make a September appearance in the bullpen ala Bumgarner if SDP is in the hunt?

Craig Edwards

2:41

I doubt it. He's still in High-A and will likely reach his innings limit by September. Maybe next year.

Voldemort

2:42

Craig, I'm late to the party. But riddle me this, when is Christian Yelich going to start regressing?

Craig Edwards

2:43

Tomorrow, probably, though his 4.4 WAR projection indicates he probably won't be falling that much compared to what he did last season.

2:44

What is going on with Zach Davies? He somehow leads the MLB in ERA while having the 6th worst SIERA. Is there anything at all that could account for that other than good defense and a shit-ton of luck?

Craig Edwards

2:44

He's got a .283 BABIP and 87% left-on base rate. That's most of it, though he is pitching pretty well.

Voldemort

2:44

Do you think Hiura is up for good or is this just a cup of coffee?

Craig Edwards

2:45

Probably gets sent back down assuming Shaw hits reasonably well during his rehab. There just isn't a ton of space for Hiura on the roster right now.

Craig Almighty

2:45

Forgetting Bumgarner for a second, is it safe to say Minor and Duffy are the best available starters out there?

Craig Edwards

2:47

Stroman and Sanchez are presumably out there, too. It looks like there is going to be some quality pitching traded at the deadline this year, though no ace-level players unless Bumgarner can really keep things going.

Andy

2:47

Who finishes the year with a better performance, Musgrove, Luke Weaver or Zach Wheeler?

Craig Edwards

2:48

I think I'm leaning Wheeler there with Weaver and Musgrove a tossup mostly due to Weaver wearing down last year. Musgrove is going to give up more homers than he has.

Prison Mike

2:49

Do you think Hunter Dozier is a long-term piece for the Royals, or is he trade bait?

Craig Edwards

2:50

If the Royals think they can compete by 2021 or 2022, then he can be a long term piece as he won't be a FA until after 2023. If he falls off his pace and looks more like a 2-3 win player, the team is probably better off trading him, though. Only keep potential stars while rebuilding.

Craig Kimbrel

2:51

What state should I be calling realtors?

Craig Edwards

2:51

Just let the realtors call you.

Mario

2:51

Was there any reaction in the fangraphs locker room to the NBA draft lottery?

Craig Edwards

2:52

We're just taking things a day at a time. We moved past it pretty quickly. Have to focus on today.

AJ Preller's Godson

2:52

Any scenario where my godfather decides to sell on Kirby Yates?

Craig Edwards

2:53

If the Padres are out of it and a top-50 or better prospect close to the majors is available, sure, but the Padres already have a lot of prospects and they need more major league help to contend in their current window. I think it would be a tough sell.

Mason Jarre

2:54

Let me put it this way, are Urshela and Voit 'real' enough?

Craig Edwards

2:55

I wouldn't put too many eggs in the Urshela basket going forward. Luke Voit is a professional hitter, but May has brought his season line closer to a more reasonable level.

Tim

2:56

Should I be more worried about Stanton? Was the recent shoulder announcement a sign of worse news to come?

Craig Edwards

2:57

It's certainly not good. He kind of needs his shoulder due to important hitting things. You wonder even if he does come back if his power will be sapped and then if he needs surgery in the offseason, how that affects 2020. Maybe he just needs rest, but I would be pretty pessimistic at this point.

Bread Gardner

2:57

Chris Davis. He is now a Baseball Player again. Will he keep it up and remain a Baseball Player?

Craig Edwards

2:58

That's certainly a possibility, but let's keep our expectations grounded in hoping for replacement level the rest of the season.

The Pun Guy

2:59

What is behind Kyle Freeland's rocky start to the season?

Craig Edwards

3:02

A juiced ball? He's just giving up a bunch of home runs, but I also think that his ability to control contact last season might have been a bit overstated. A sub-three ERA is too much to expect, though something just below 4 would still be quite good for Colorado and a reasonable expectation going forward.

just a guy

3:02

will yandy hit enough FBs to keep this up?

Craig Edwards

3:03

He hasn't yet. He's still hitting a ton of grounders and unless his swing and approach actually change, he's not going to keep this up.

Ryan

3:03

How much longer can the Cubs' pitching staff keep this up?

Craig Edwards

3:05

It's a talented staff so they should be good, but the FIP is about half a run over their ERA, which is a more reasonable approximation for how they've pitched and what to expect going forward. Lester slowed down last year, and it seems likely that he will again.

Matt W

3:06

Will the Kelenice/Diaz/Canó deal go down as an all-time bad trade? Canó looks every bit his age and is signed to an albatross deal, and Diaz has been fine but not special enough to overcome that deficit. Meanwhile, Kelenic looks like a superstar in the minors.

Craig Edwards

3:07

Way too early to think that. Kelenic is still a ways off and in Low-A. If he turns into Jay Bruce, which would be a pretty good outcome for him, I don't think we are looking at an all time bad deal.

Gordon Tremeschko

3:08

Random question -- why don't other sports have dedicated supporters' sections/ultras like soccer does? I guess college basketball student sections are pretty close. And, if you squint, maybe football tailgating is kind of analogous? But, man, the intensity, the chants... it's so unique and cool. But, then again, I guess such rowdiness is kind of anathema to watching a ballgame at the park.

Craig Edwards

3:10

Soccer only has one big break, which helps because the action is near constant. You have to focus all your attention on the match so a rowdy support group in one section is easier to keep in line. In baseball there are several minute breaks multiple times every half an hour. Keeping chants going like they do in soccer would feel really weird.

just a guy

3:11

Can Caleb Smith sustain this?

Craig Edwards

3:12

He couldn't last year and has a history of shoulder issues, though he might make it to the All-Star break at least.

DJ Tanner

3:12

Is Austin Riley doomed to suck at hitting since he hit a HR in his first game (ala Kieboom and Cole Tucker)?

Craig Edwards

3:13

Nope. I think he'll be pretty good.