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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--9/17/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:02
Thanks for joining the chat.
First, my piece on the Mets' ownership just went up. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mets-sale-to-steve-cohen-is-biggest-in-mlb...
2:03
I also wrote about Alec Mills' story and his unlikely no-hitter. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-unlikeliest-no-hitter/
Bronson Arroyo's Leg Kick
2:03
if Sonny Gray is healthy and the Reds sneak in the playoffs would Bauer/Castillo/Gray be enough to challenge LAD in round one? Hard to think of many better 1-2-3s
Craig Edwards
2:05
Absolutely. If you gave the Reds a 45% chance to win each games, there's a 20% chance the Reds don't even get to a third game and the Dodgers are out of it. It's part of the reason why expanding playoffs in this manner is a bad idea for the future.
Scotty
2:05
Where have Zack Wheelers strikeouts gone?
Craig Edwards
2:07
I think I've talked about this before, but he's started throwing a sinker more so the strikeouts have turned into groundouts. It's an interesting startegy, particularly given the move in home ballparks. It does require a decent infield or you otherwise get the potential for a bunch of cheap hits ruining an inning.
TKDC
2:07
Maybe this barely matters, but are we at a point where “qualified” for starting pitchers needs to be moved to a lower innings threshold? Even putting this year aside, qualified pitchers have gone from 89 in 1999 to 77 in 2009 to 61 in 2019.
Craig Edwards
2:08
Maybe, but the question is do we just change it for now or for all-time. I also wonder if increasing the number of teams would lead to more qualified pitchers as the potential relievers would decline in quality.
kevinthecomic
2:09
Mike Kickham back in the Major Leagues 6 years (!) after his last appearance.  This some kind of record?  He's not doing particularly well, but might be a good interview for Laurila.
Craig Edwards
2:10
I doubt it is a record. Still interesting though. I just looked up Ankiel, but it turns out he pitched a couple games in 2004 in between 2001 and 2007.
Robbie314
2:10
Fun fact:  Ke'Bryan Hayes is now (tied for) 2nd in season WAR for the Pirates after just 13 games.
Craig Edwards
2:11
I might dispute that fact as fun if I were a Pirates fan, but it is always fun to see good prospects get off to good starts in the majors.
Justin
2:11
What is the main difference between UZR and DRS and which do you prefer for infielders/outfielders?
Craig Edwards
2:13
they used to be a lot more similar, though UZR has seemed to move closer to the mean with some changes over the last few years while DRS has moved even further away with different changes. Here at FanGraphs, UZR is included in our WAR while Baseball Reference uses DRS. I tend to prefer UZR of the two because of the lack of gigantic swings that can skew a player's WAR total in an individual season.
kevinthecomic
2:14
What are we going to do if Jose Iglesias hits .400 this year?
Craig Edwards
2:15
Riot? He's got 11 games to get 54 PA, which is hard. He also has to hit well over .400 in those games to get up from his .381 average. So, it isn't likely to happen, but I think it would be neat if he did.
Lorenzo
2:16
What's your % chance that the owners approve the Mets sale?
Craig Edwards
2:16
It's pretty high. They've approved worse and the sale price is really big, particularly in a pandemic with the Mets' financial issues.
Larry Jones
2:17
Is it too late for Machado to jump to the top of the MVP race with Betts/Tatis/Freeman? Do you think his prior antics hurt his chances? He's not far behind in WAR
Craig Edwards
2:18
It's definitely not too late, but it will be pretty hard to overtake Tatis Jr. on his own team and I think that could bump him down on some ballots more than it would if there weren't two MVP candidates on the same team. It's possible past stuff could hold his vote total down some, but I don't think that would be his main issue.
lmb2020
2:19
Avisail Garcia in CF is weird, right?
Craig Edwards
2:20
It's a little weird, but with Cain opting out, there weren't too many other options. Miller Park isn't huge, which probably helps.
Harry Lime
2:20
What are vesting options? Advantage player or ownership?
Craig Edwards
2:21
It's an option that becomes guaranteed if certain parameters are met, say playing in a certain number of games, getting so many PA, not ending the year on the injured list. They are generally an advantage for ownership because they only have to pay the player if they are doing well enough to garner playing time.
kevinthecomic
2:23
Are Dakota Hudson's control gains for real?  If so, is he a legit #1 / #2 starter?
Craig Edwards
2:25
He's definitely getting ahead of batters more this year, which leads to the uptick in strikeouts along with fewer walks. He's still walking too many batters and giving up homers. His FIP says he's an average pitcher and his ground ball rate plus a good defense allows him to outpitch that. His slider is still a good swing and miss pitch, but unless he gets his walks down, #2 is still too far away. Solid 3-4, though, which is better than last year.
Blue Morpho
2:27
Not a record for Kickham, Daniel Bard is back after 7 seasons, but I'm not sure if that's the record.
Craig Edwards
2:27
there's another big gap.
Sonny
2:28
If you'll indulge an econ question from a dum-dum, what exactly did Steve Cohen buy for $2.4B? He gets Wilpon debt, no TV, "maybe some" of the land development, and...? He owns the Mets now I guess but I'm surprised bc it looks like a decade+ to get out of Wilpon's mess with much of the revenue streams cut off
Craig Edwards
2:32
He gets massive paper losses which can reduce his tax liability elsewhere. Any debt the team has gets paid off from revenue generated by the team so his equity increases by hundreds of millions of dollars without doing a thing. He was willing to buy at $2.6 B before the pandemic so the price could be artificially low. The tv contract runs out within a decade and he has the means to do his own thing if he wanted depending on how the tv landscape shapes up, essentially creating a billion dollar (maybe multi-billion dollar) company with little of his own investment and MLB team prices have gone up about 8% annually after inflation for the last 40-50 years.
Kurupt FM
2:33
Craig stroke my hair and tell me Vladdy Jr is going to show signs of progress this season. Please.
Craig Edwards
2:35
He's doing pretty well since the bad first week of the season with a 121 wRC+ since then. He had a great August. He's got a good walk rate and very good strikeout rate. There are some signs of improvement. It just might take him a little while longer to get the ball in the air consistently to get to his freakish power.
Justin
2:36
Just a follow up question from my question earlier, how do you think statcast's OAA compares to UZR/DRS?
Craig Edwards
2:38
I like OAA but outs aren't runs so the comparison is a hard one to make. Depending on where the ball is, some are more important than others. There's also the issue of positioning and where/who should get credit for it.
Guest
2:38
How does Rob Manfred still have a job? I challenge you to name one situation he handled correctly or competently.
Craig Edwards
2:38
He's done very well in the CBA and the owners are all a little bit, or in some cases, a lot richer because of him.
Joshua
2:39
If the Giants decide to "sell high" on Yaz this offseason, what type of package could they possibly bring back? Could he land a top 100 prospect? Top 50? Etc....Thanks.
Craig Edwards
2:40
I don't think there's going to be a ton of trade value there because of his age. Whit Merrifield had a five-win season a few years ago, but his age made it so there wasn't a hig demand for him. He's probably more valuable to the Giants as a good player the next few years than getting a prospect who has a better than 50/50 shot of not contributing at all.
Phat Stax
2:41
With the recent reports that the owners want to keep the expanded playoff format beyond this season, what other rule changes do you see sticking? The NL DH seems to be a given, but do you think the extra inning rules and 7 inning double headers are here to stay? I don’t see who these rule changes appeal to, except maybe the players union.
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