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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--9/25/2019
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Ben Dubose
12:01
Bregman is only 0.3 bWAR back from Trout. MVP?
Craig Edwards
12:03
Still Trout. Bregman is behind by more than that here and at BP. Have to really push the defense beyond what we know to get Bregman close to Trout. Bregman has had a great season, but he hasn't been as good as Trout, which is true for nearly all players evey year since 2012.
Mike Myers
12:03
Are you a fan of the Wayne's World movies? Whenever I watch Max Scherzer pitch I think of the partial ocular albino (Kevin Pollak's character).
Craig Edwards
12:04
If you label Scherzer, you negate him.
Dave Martinez
12:04
Who should be my starting pitcher in the Wild Card game?
Craig Edwards
12:06
I would still go with Scherzer. You can make a case for Strasburg, but the body of work, even this season, is too much to pass up.
David
12:06
CY, MVP, ROY - who you got?
Craig Edwards
12:07
Trout answer is above. I've written on both Cy Youngs in the past week. Here's the NL: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-nl-cy-young-voter-guide/
I think I'd go deGrom there.
12:08
Cole for me in the AL.
12:09
It's a really tough call. I don't have a vote, but if I did I would probably go with Yelich over Bellinger, but I don't have strong feelings that I would be picking the best player this season.
ROY is Alvarez and Alonso. Those are the easy ones.
Guest
12:10
Acuna has to get at least a handful of votes for NLMVP, right?
Craig Edwards
12:11
First place votes? It's possible with the 40/40 he gets a few, but he really shouldn't be in the conversation at the very top. I'm sure he will be somewhere on most, if not all ballots, though.
Tom
12:11
Think the Cards win the NL Central before the season is over?
Craig Edwards
12:12
Playoff odds put it at 93% so it seems pretty likely. With four games to go, 3-1 gets it for them no matter what the Brewers do. Most likely outcome that gets it by a shred is 2-2 with the Brewers going 5-1. The game against Castillo and the Reds tomorrow is a big one for Milwaukee.
Guest
12:12
Are they Cardinals going to blow this, Craig?
Craig Edwards
12:12
Doubtful
Dave Roberts
12:12
In what order would you start Kershaw, Ryu and Buehler in the NLDS?
Craig Edwards
12:13
I would go Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu. If you needed to, you could pitch Buehler in game 5 with Kershaw.
Richie
12:14
Anytime you get to so set it up, you should always bullpen the wildcard game. You got the further day off after it to rerest the relievers.
Craig Edwards
12:15
That assumes you have nine innings worth of relievers better than at least 3-4 of a starter, which probably isn't the case for most teams. Might be the case for the Brewers, A's, and Rays depending on the health and effectiveness in Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, but Cleveland and Washington would be much worse off going to a bullpen game.
Nolan
12:16
Biggest question mark for the playoffs: WSN bullpen, MIL rotation, LAD bullpen?
Craig Edwards
12:16
Of those three, I think the LA bullpen, particularly given they are already guaranteed a spot in the division series.
BenZ
12:17
If we have a Houston-Milwaukee World Series, which is more likely, the Brewers winning the series or the Astros sweeping?
Craig Edwards
12:19
Brewers winning. Even if the Astros were 70-30 favorites in each game, the odds of a sweep are only 24%. The odds of a Brewers series win are higher than that and the Astros probably wouldn't be favored by that much in every game.
BenZ
12:20
I know they would go bullpen heavy, but if you are the Rays, would you rather have Morton or Snell start a Wild Card game? And would it be the same against either the Indians or the As?
Craig Edwards
12:21
Morton. Snell would essentially be an opener-type situation at this point and Morton has been pitching well. I don't think you change that up based on opponent.
v2micca
12:22
How concerned should Braves fans be regarding Freeman's sore elbow?
Craig Edwards
12:23
Fairly concerned until he actually plays, which should be Friday. They have the luxury of getting rest right now, but hard to know exactly what his strength will be.
Jeff
12:23
Phillies, Red Sox, and Cubs: which fan base should be most disappointed and why?
Craig Edwards
12:24
Disappointed to not make the playoffs: Phillies, given how good things looked for them for a while and how much they did to improve the team.
12:26
Disappointed in the organization: Cubs, given the team had obvious holes in the offseason and refused to find a solution and just hoped Kimbrel would be the answer. They were an expensive version of Cleveland trying to thread the needle, and it backfired.
Ben
12:26
Should Mike Matheny ever get another MLB managing gig?
Craig Edwards
12:29
Clint Hurdle did better in his second turn because he embraced analytics and got on the same page with the Pirates analytically. If Mike Matheny has spent his time figuring out why he was a disaster in St. Louis and works to improve on the issues that got him fired, he might make a good manager. If he thinks he earned all those victories in St. Louis and getting fired was unfair or just bad luck, there's no reason to put him in charge. In any case, Kansas City is probably not the organization that is going to help Matheny fix his flaws. I'm not sure what the question was at this point, but going to say probably not.
Scoops McClatchy
12:30
Are you still high on Austin Riley?  His bb/k rate worries me.
Craig Edwards
12:31
In 2018, his strikeout rate was 29% in Triple-A. It was 20% the early part of this season. I think there is reason to think he'll get better next season with more time against MLB pitching. Just can't expect what he did the first few weeks to be the norm.
JustCurious
12:32
Which fringe contender (i.e team that will just miss the playoffs) is least likely to be in contention next year? My bet would be the Phillies given that they have way overperformed the underlying metrics (see BP's 2nd and 3rd order win percentage: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/standings/) and I am not sure how much more they can spend given last offseason's splurge.
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