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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--9/25/2019
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Craig Edwards
12:34
The Phillies opening day payroll this season was around $140 million. From 2011-2014, it averaged around $170 million and revenues have only gone up. The Phillies have room to make more big moves. Plus, to answer the question, the Mets.
TomBruno23
12:34
Who is a player from your youth that, looking back on it with Fangraphs data, isn't as good as you remember? For me Vince Coleman is towards the top of the list.
Craig Edwards
12:37
One thing to keep in mind with Coleman is that BsR was only stolen bases back then. He probably had another 2-4 wins in his Cardinals days that aren't accounted for. I'm not sure as to the answer to the question, though. I'll have to think about it.
JustCurious
12:39
The Phillies backloaded a bunch of contracts though. Ex. Bryce going from 11.5 to 27.5, McCutchen going from 10 to 17, Nola going from 4.5 to 8.5, offset a bit by Arrieta dropping 5 million. But, they have $125M committed to just 9 players going into 2020. After arb raises I don't think there is much money even if the budget is $180M+
Craig Edwards
12:40
Depends on what happens with guys like Hernandez and Franco. Realmuto is the only big arb guy who is for sure to stick around. I could see the Phillies going up to $200 million after this season's failure. Need to keep the attendance run going.
J
12:41
Do you think there's any actual chance the Cubs hire David Ross as manager next year? It's been reported that he's under consideration but that just seems ridiculous to me
Craig Edwards
12:41
I doubt it.
TD
12:42
Do you think the Yankees will keep Didi next year?  Seems like DJ is a keeper and with gleyber, there doesn’t seem to be room for Didi
Craig Edwards
12:43
They can still move Lemahieu around like they planned. It's hard to know what the market is going to be. I doubt the Yankees are going to give him 4 or 5 years and if there's a shortstop needy team out there, that might be in play given the lack of options in free agency this season.
Trent
12:43
Which free-agent landing spots would be most interesting to you as a fan of baseball in general?  I'd love to see, e.g., Cole to the Nationals (for a rotation even better than the 2017 Indians or 2010 Phillies?), Rendon to the Phillies (to take the PHI-WSN to another, even higher level), or Cole to the Angels (to perhaps finally get Trout into the post-season).
Craig Edwards
12:44
The last one. Get the Angels to the playoffs. People wonder why Mike Trout isn't more famous. It isn't his personality. It's not playing on the biggest stage.
Andrew Friedman
12:44
We should be in on Cole this offseason, right? Any chance he takes 4/140 to be close to home and contend every year?
Craig Edwards
12:45
Maybe 4/140 before the player opt-out that guarantees 3/60.
I am the Walrus
12:47
If the Rox pay around $5M/yr of Blackmon's contract, can they get a Goldy type return?  He has more years left of control at about $13/yr after they pay $5M.
Craig Edwards
12:50
Blackmon is 33 years old coming off of two okay seasons. In this scenario, the team trading for him has him at 4/53. That's pretty much what Andrew McCutchen got in FA (3/50) except he was a year younger. I don't think the Rockies could get anything back by paying down $5 M per year, or at least not any top-100ish type guys.
I am the Walrus
12:51
Cubs have about $45M coming off the books.  What if they signed Rendon and traded Bryant for a couple of assets including a CF/leadoff and a young pitcher?
Craig Edwards
12:53
Why wouldn't they just use that $45 million to get a center fielder and a pitcher and keep the younger player with an MVP award who played a crucial role in winning a World Series and kept the team as one of the game's best the past few years?
Chat Mapman
12:56
Is May's 8.9% swstr a cause for concern? Seems like it would limit his ceiling.
Craig Edwards
12:58
the 9% swstr doesn't represent his ceiling, though. It will likely go up with more time. He spent most of 2018 in High-A (12% swstr) and then most of 2019 in Double-A (11% Swstr). Once he adjusts to the level, there will be more whiffs.
Mac
12:58
I know there's a reason for it, but do you find it ironic that the Gold Gloves are the only awards with a sabermetric component even though we agree that defensive stats are the most unreliable over a single season?
Craig Edwards
1:00
consider that people tend to think they are more accurate now than the straight votes that used to lead to Gold Gloves and some pretty egregious misses. Defensive metrics aren't as good as what we have on the offensive side, but they are still a step forward in understanding player value in the field. And people would go insane if there was a stat-based component for MVP or Cy Young.
Dylan P
1:01
How would you set up the Yankees rotation? I'd go paxton, severino, tanaka myself
Craig Edwards
1:01
I don't think you should be starting the fourth game, but that is how I would line up the first three games, probably.
Matt W
1:01
What can the Twins do to avoid another Bronx disaster?
Craig Edwards
1:02
Get early leads.
KLanz34
1:02
Who will rebuild fastest - O's, Tigers, Royals, Marlins? I feel like Marlins should based on farm rank, but they have the fanbase issue to hurdle as well.
Craig Edwards
1:03
The Orioles and Tigers seem more likely to spend money to supplement the farm but if Miami hits on a few prospects, it could make a big difference. I'll say the Tigers due to the combo of farm/resources/division competition.
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
1:04
The dawning of the age of Aquino was fun, but seems like the lights are out now.  Fun Shane Spenceresque story or do you think he's got another chapter?
Craig Edwards
1:06
I imagine he'll get all of next year as a starter and his season might be like his current body of work, which comes out to about two wins with the potential for more. Shane Spencer never actually played a full season.
Matt W
1:07
How do you solve a problem like Syndergaard? His underlying metrics looks so good (83 FIP-) but he just doesn't get results (4.3 ERA). Do we have to just wait for him to get traded to the Astros and go full Cole?
Craig Edwards
1:08
a better defense would help.
Cody
1:09
Is Kyle Lewis a legit starting outfielder or is this just small sample awesomeness?
Craig Edwards
1:09
probably small sample stuff, but it doesn't hurt to try and find out.
Charles Finley
1:09
Should the Yankees really be looking into re-signing E5, given how the DH spot is extremely useful for so many players in their org (Sanchez, Judge, Stanton, Voit, Andujar, Ford, even Frazier)?
Craig Edwards
1:10
Assuming they have some sort of a budget, it should probably go to pitching, but bringing Encarnacion back is a fine move.
?
1:11
Sounds like you're saying the Mets are least likely to be in contention next year- out of curiosity, why? They aren't losing a lot of key guys, should get more out of Nimmo, Diaz and Familia can reasonably be expected to rebound at least minimally; they should get something out of Lowrie, even as a UT, and Cespedes might even come back. Plus, they might have a new manager who is better with "strategery". What, in your mind, makes Philly (for example) better, other than $ to make moves that they haven't yet?
Craig Edwards
1:15
Mets rumors seem to revolve around addition and subtraction. Wheeler was really good this year and he might be gone or just not as good. The odds of deGrom being as good next year aren't high. The same is true of Alonso and McNeil. Stroman isn't a great fit with the Mets' infield defense. The things that went wrong for the Mets this year were mostly balanced by things that went right and they ended up right where they were projected to be. If they trade Syndergaard, that's a huge loss. The Mets seem unlikely to build anything more than the 80-85 team that they had going into this season and that puts them at risk to fall out of the race.
?
1:16
Syndergaard has given up 10 hits in 5+ innings in his past two starts, and has had a number of starts like this. The defense is admittedly bad, but is your attributing his underperformance to the defense based on any anecdotal or other evidence, or just assuming a link?
Craig Edwards
1:17
His xwOBA has been much lower than his wOBA in every full season with the Mets. I wrote about it earlier this year. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-case-for-noah-syndergaard/
Charles Finley
1:18
Who are the likely suitors for Marcell Ozuna?
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