JotCast | Cubs Offseason In Review Chat With Tim Dierkes

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niren

10:08

just joined. This roster is pretty flawed offensively. And the Pitching is good but not shut down. The first 40-50 games worry me. 3B, 1B, C, RF (until seiya is back) and Bellinger wild card worries me

Tim Dierkes

10:08

That's pretty accurate. I think they're hoping the pitching keeps them in games and the middle of the field defense is really strong. But you're hoping for a lot of bounceback seasons offensively.

10:09

I tend to agree with the Dansby poll...10 WAR is a pretty low bar to set and I do think he'll exceed it.

Guest

10:09

Who has options left? Beside, Smyley could be moved to the pen first.

Tim Dierkes

10:09

Alzolay, McKinstry, Merryweather, and Steele are out of options.

10:10

I don't think Smyly would be smyling if they move him to the pen this year.

Food

10:10

Chicago dog or Italian beef?

Tim Dierkes

10:10

Love me a Portillo's Italian beef with motz, hot peppers on the side

10:11

Sometimes if I'm feeling crazy, I'll baptize that thing, but that can be a bit soggy

Andrew

10:12

Are the Cubs legitimate players in Ohtani?

Tim Dierkes

10:13

The Cubs under the Ricketts family have shopped at the top of the market on occasion - Heyward, Darvish. But this top of the market is likely more than $100MM beyond the largest contract ever given out.

Ohtani is such a unicorn that it's hard to predict which teams will buck their own trends. Would I pick the Cubs as a favorite, no.

Chucky

10:13

Can James Taillon take that *next step*, and become that frontline starter most Cubs fans seem to be clamoring for?

Tim Dierkes

10:15

The Cubs will try, and Jameson was enticed by their Pitch Lab talk. My guess is that he will mostly stay the same Taillon, low 4s ERA type guy.

That said, ERA fluctuates a LOT with NO skills change. So if Taillon posts a 3.40 ERA this year, it does not mean the Cubs fixed him, and if he posts a 4.40 it does not mean they broke him.

10:16

I think year-to-year ERA correlation for a pitcher usually lands around 0.4

Cubs4life

10:17

Playoff percentage in 2024 over or under 60%

Tim Dierkes

10:17

Cubs 2024 playoff chances: 60%

Over (27.7% | 18 votes)

Under (72.3% | 47 votes)

Total Votes: 65

SJC

10:17

Ohtani will be a Met, Dodger or Yankee at $50MM per year for 10 years?

Tim Dierkes

10:19

I think I'm in the $550MM+ camp. We were light on the stars in our predictions this winter. That said we had Bryce for $420 mil and Machado for $390 mil in the 2018-19 offseason

Honestly, a lot of teams should have done that on those players and I still don't fully understand why none came close to 400 there.

Guest

10:19

What about closing out games?I hate the committee approach. People need to know their role and be confident in it. I'd Say based on experience Setup is Fulmer and closer is Boxberger. Thoughts?

Tim Dierkes

10:21

The committee approach kind of sucks for fantasy baseball. But I think today's pitchers understand the concept of leverage. Saving your best reliever for the save situation where he faces 7-8-9 up by three runs, and using your second-best in a higher-leverage situation, because Jerome Holtzman invented the save stat in 1959, is not good strategy.

ECR

10:21

In my view there's certainly some things to be excited about this season. There's new players, promising young arms and position players, good prospects likely to be called up. This is a team in transition, not a WS contender, so as long as you don't wildly over estimate what this team may be capable of, sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride, right?. Or, am I just a delusional young fan with many years of heartbreak and disappointment ahead?

Tim Dierkes

10:22

The team looks a little better than last year in terms of veterans. There are interesting prospects who are that much closer to the Majors. I think you have a good outlook toward your Cubs fandom in 2023.

Long view

10:23

It seems that this is a critical year for Hoyer and crew. How would you define the season as a success, organization wide? I’d say the MLB team needs to be competitive — by that I mean not out of the race by June. And that their incredibly high number of intriguing prospects, but many of whom are real question marks, as you said, produce at least a few top 50, breakout-poised candidates for next year. That feels like a low bar, and if Hoyer and crew can’t jump it after as many years as they’ve had (I’m counting the Theo years here a bit), it’s time to move on, in my opinion.

Tim Dierkes

10:24

Your question is stumping me. I was going to say that they need to play .500 ball, but that seems arbitrary. And how much does Hoyer have to do with player development?

10:25

Just in the way most baseball teams are run, I think Hoyer could be on the chopping block if this team is out of the race in June. I have a hard time saying whether that's fair.

FOOTBALL!!

10:25

Just wondering...does the Trade Rumors brand have plans to expand these chats to the other sports that are covered? I receive a lot of insight from these discussions...

Tim Dierkes

10:26

Yes, I want us doing regular chats on Hoops Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors. I should review how regularly those are happening.

Jake

10:26

Was last season the beginning of the end of the career of Kyle Hendricks?

Tim Dierkes

10:28

I won't count him out. This is a guy who has defied expectations his entire career. He can be an effective pitcher at 87 mph, which is extremely rare. If his shoulder allows him to keep throwing 87, there should be future success ahead of him, even if he's already peaked.

We Are The World

10:29

The ship has sailed on Miguel Amaya? The injuries have cut into his development

Tim Dierkes

10:31

There was talk several weeks ago of Amaya getting into spring training games. From what I can tell, that has not happened. He'll be at Double-A and is considered to be healthy at present. 2023 is a huge year for him, he's kind of the Cubs' best hope for a long-term catcher.

Guest

10:33

Setting aside the pre-season hope Cubs fans tend to feel regardless of the roster, I just don't see this team being anything better than a .500 ballclub this season. Too many holes/platoons at 1B and 3B, the Bellinger reclamation project in CF, and a downturn in offense at the C position. The farm system, in my view, is middle of the pack, rather than how some view it as a lean toward the top 10-12. I still do not see the step up in player development to the upper echelon of clubs to this point, although it seems to at least have improved somewhat. For me, the Cubs window for competing for the NL pennant does not open in the next 2-3 years, barring the acquisition of an Ohtani or another consistent, high end free agent, plus a couple prospects emerging who have have dealt with injuries thus far. I believe we are farther away than most Cubs fans would like to think. Am I just too pessimistic?

Tim Dierkes

10:34

I agree with that. Cubs fans are fairly optimistic on average, perhaps. Not to throw more cold water, but even Ohtani wouldn't turn them into a perennial contender.

Long view

10:34

Regarding Hoyer, I’m genuinely uncertain as well. But at some point, organizationally, it seems that a top 10 payroll team should be able to develop / buy their way back to real contention. Rebuilds not only have to be designed right, they need to succeed. No one bats 1.000. But if you are hitting below the Mendoza line as a Prez of operations year after year with trades, drafts and susbsequent development, there seems to be a problem in how the org is run. I’m optimistic about real progress at all levels this year, but if not, then I think it’s legit to be asking some tough questions.

Tim Dierkes

10:36

Yeah, if Jed gets canned after this season, I don't think it'd be because of any one thing he did or did not do. It could even be something the Ricketts acknowledge as unfair, while also saying all the usual cliches about a fresh voice/set of eyes or whatever. If Jed reaches the end of this season it's going to mark 12 years that he's been in the #1 or 2 baseball ops position.

10:36

how many wins will the cubs actually get because projections have them under 75 but I have them over 80?

Tim Dierkes

10:36

This is unknowable! I will say that I looked at how often the FanGraphs projections miss by 5+ wins once, and it was pretty darn often.

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