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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 13
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Aaron Fitt
12:47
Hello gang. Messy week for the rankings -- some people were going to be ticked off no matter what we did this week, I'm afraid. So come on then, let us have it! We'll do our best to make sense of it all.
Timothy, WV
12:50
I think the NerdCast is being recorded tonight, but any early thoughts on the Big 12 host pecking order? West Virginia, Kansas, Arizona State, and UCF are the top 4 in the standings, but Cincinnati also has a good RPI at the moment... How many end up hosting, what order do you have them projected, and can any of them potentially finish Top 8?
Aaron Fitt
12:50
Very fascinating league this year! You've got 10 teams with at-large-ish RPIs inside the top 52... Three teams currently in striking distance of host territory in both RPI and conference record -- Kansas, WVU and UCF. The NerdCast is still looking forward, so I have a feeling our group might still project WVU to finish first of those three in the pecking order, but as of today you might have to take Kansas, given the 2 game lead in the standings and the head to head sweep of UCF. ASU also in the hosting hunt, definitely in striking distance. Ultimately it feels like 2 or 3 will be the number of Big 12 hosts... 2 might be the smarter bet, but 3 is a very real possibility. Don't think I'm feeling 4 -- there's just too much parity in this league, I don't think I envision 4 teams really separating from the pack.
cool 1
Nolectasy
12:51
Not sure I have ever seen this much volatility in the rankings.   Can you remember a year where you have had this many teams getting swept in weekend series?
Aaron Fitt
12:51
Kendall and I were just chatting about this privately -- it has been a messy YEAR for the rankings, not just a messy week. So much volatility -- especially in the SEC. I wonder if the new smaller roster limit is lending itself to increased volatility. That's my current working theory -- not sure it even really makes sense, but I'm throwing it out there for consideration!
DaAggies
12:54
What would you say are the tiers in the SEC right now? It really feels like everybody outside of SC and Mizzou can beat anybody on any given weekend.
Aaron Fitt
12:54
Yeah it sure does feel like that, I think you are exactly right. As of today, I think I'd still have Georgia and Texas in the top tier... and then just a giant glob of about 12 teams that feel almost interchangeable. And even Georgia and Texas aren't like clearly ahead of that pack, as this weekend illustrated. But for the moment, I'll still give those two teams the benefit of the doubt given their track records over the entire season until this point -- they still feel like the cream of the crop to me. After that, gosh, it's anybody's guess. Which is pretty fun, actually!
Corn Dude
12:56
Dropping Nebraska from the top 25 seems harsh. They lost 3 games by a total of 4 runs to teams now ranked 18 and 19. They seem to very much be on the same level as Kansas and Oregon and should be at worst somewhere in the 20-25 range. Yes, they will have the opportunity to prove it with 4 of the next 5 against USC and KU, but that’s not the point.
Aaron Fitt
12:56
Definitely harsh, and certainly we would have kept Nebraska in the rankings in some other weeks. But this week, we had a couple teams that we simply HAD to bring into the rankings, and most of the teams in the back half of the rankings won their weekends, so in order to make room for Kansas (the Big 12 leader by two games, and a team that did in fact beat Nebraska head to head this week) and Florida (which won a road series at a top-4 team that hadn't lost a series all year), we had to drop two teams. Nebraska and LSU were our only options -- nobody else from 13-25 lost a series. Call it #pollmechanics if you must, but that's just the reality of doing a weekly Top 25 -- some weeks, teams get hit more harshly than they deserve, because these things aren't done in a vacuum. How other teams around you perform also factors into it.
12:59
And just to follow up, it also works in the other direction -- some weeks, teams get rewarded more than they really deserve, or have their fall cushioned and stay higher than they really deserve, because of what the teams around them have done over the previous week. Everybody is always complaining about consistent treatment of teams from week to week -- but that's just impossible when you're trying to rank all these different teams with different data points and sometimes head-to-head results that conflict with each other. Sorry -- but I promise, making a Top 25 isn't as simple as it might seem from the outside when you're only really paying attention to where your own single team is ranked!
TxReb
12:58
Ole Miss is so back. That is all.
Kendall Rogers
12:58
Feeling much better about the Rebels right now. I said before the weekend that I was really curious to see if the offense could get going, and it did that over the weekend against LSU. Add to it that Cade Townsend is back and into form, and the Rebels a pretty dangerous club right now. Now, the key is establishing consistency moving forward after back-to-back series wins. I'm bullish on them right now.
FittsMagic
12:59
Texas did not get to use its best pitcher (Volantis) in the series in College Station. Do you anticipate him moving for Friday next week and for the foreseeable future. Is this something that the staff will be kicking itself for on selection Monday?
Kendall Rogers
12:59
Great question. I actually love the idea of moving Volantis to the Saturday role in lieu of Harrison. I love Luke Harrison as a college pitcher, but if I'm trying to close out a series, give me Volantis 10 out of 10 times. I'd love to see Schloss move DV up in the rotation.
Adam
1:01
With Miami, seemingly surging again, what do they need to do to ensure lock status into the field of 64 and hopefully get at the very least a two seed
Aaron Fitt
1:01
Yeah it really feels like Miami has figured a lot of stuff out, by shuffling the rotation a bit and finding some answers in the bullpen -- that pitching staff now feels much more stable than it did early. And they were able to withstand some injuries and showcase their position player depth in the process. I like where they're at, and I like how they're trending (I recommend reading Walter Villa's insightful piece on the Hurricanes this morning for more). I think getting to about 14 ACC wins probably would lock up an at-large for Miami, so that means a 6-9 finish should be good enough. If they go .500 in the league the rest of the way, they'll cruise in.
Jason
1:04
How would you rate Michigan's at large chances?  Thanks
Kendall Rogers
1:04
Jason -- Probably not in a great spot right now. The Wolverines plummeted in the RPI over the past week, are down to 51, and also have a losing record in the Big Ten (No. 5 RPI conference). The Wolverines are far from 'out of the mix', but even after a series win over Michigan State, the Wolverines' resume actually took a hit. There is just not a large room for error down the stretch.
James
1:05
What’s the latest report from Conway on Cam Flukey?  They’ve been very vague/non-committal in terms of projecting a return date.  What’s your best guess, if only on hunch?
Aaron Fitt
1:05
I don't have any updated information, but I always tend to be a skeptic when injury absences for pitchers drag on and on like this. College baseball coaches almost ALWAYS try to spin it positive -- trying to "protect" their player or whatever, blah blah, usually at the behest of an agent or family. Personally, I don't know what good that really does -- just lay it out there and be straight with us, it'll all get out eventually anyway. To reiterate, I'm not saying that's the situation here.... but so often over the years, this is how it goes: an absence drags on, coaches tell us "oh he's coming back, he's coming back" and then shocker, he doesn't come back. Anyway, at least this case is a rib thing and not an arm thing, so hopefully there's more cause for hope. But I'm just at the "I'll believe it when I see it" when it comes to just about all returns from injury for pitchers.
Jeff
1:05
UCLA has been the best team all year so far. And I say that even with my gold-colored glasses after GT swept FSU at home. But is it possible for GT to overtake them as #1 in your eyes if UCLA keeps winning? Would a win or sweep at UNC cause you all to rethink the ranking?
Kendall Rogers
1:05
At this point, the Bruins have earned the No. 1 spot until they slip up. When they've played good teams this season, they've beat them to be a pulp in some instances. I also feel much better about the Bruins on the mound than I do GT - though GT's pitching has most certainly been just fine. I think UCLA is just a more balanced club in my eyes.
Aaron Fitt
1:07
I am with KR. But man, Georgia Tech is good! Should UCLA stumble, Georgia Tech is definitely capable of taking that No. 1 overall seed. They are having that kind of season, no question about it.
HoggedUp
1:11
What's your outlook on Arkansas after that series? Preseason you guys stated it may take a while for this team to click, do you think that may have been the turning point?
Aaron Fitt
1:11
You know, I think so, yeah. I like the way they've re-shuffled roles on the pitching staff, it felt like the pieces fit together pretty well this weekend -- I am encouraged by the direction of that staff. We saw some encouraging signs from Kuhio Aloy and TJ Pompey, two obviously important pieces. I still believe in the talent -- I never panicked on this team, even when a lot of other people were jumping ship. I have always believed in the talent, and I still do. Going on the road and sweeping a team that had earned its way into the top 10 is a pretty loud statement that the Hogs might just be about to make a real run in the second half, in my opinion.
Midwest baseball
1:12
Nebraska's hosting hopes officially done? Or if they take 2/3 from USC and beat KU next week, along with take care of business in other series do they have a shot?
Kendall Rogers
1:12
Not at all. The Huskers are still in the mix, but they just have a lot more work to do than they did a week ago. The RPI is down to 27 and they are just 7-7 vs. Q1 and Q2 teams. I will say this -- if the Huskers lose the USC series, I think you can close the book on being a Top 16 seed. That would leave Nebraska without a single marquee series win, which is the death knell.
Rowan
1:13
What’s the schedule for brackets this year? When’s the next and one out?
Aaron Fitt
1:13
We will Nerdcast tonight to assemble the field and post tomorrow. Our goal is to post every Tuesday moving forward, but there are a couple of scheduling obstacles ahead that may force us to post on Wednesday now and then. In any event, it will be weekly until conference tournament week, at which point we will update several times during the week leading up to our final projection on Sunday night.
Eric Simmons
1:13
When will you have the next Field of 64 Projections?
Kendall Rogers
1:13
Tuesday afternoon!
goeagles 28
1:15
can southern miss still be  top 8 seed
Kendall Rogers
1:15
GoEagles -- of course the Golden Eagles can, but the biggest issue for me right now is a very iffy conference record. The overall resume is still in a solid spot with 14 wins vs. Q1 and Q2, and a solid RPI of 14. I'd say it's an option, but is a long shot at the moment, especially given how far ahead in the standings Coastal is for now.
Andrew
1:16
What are you making of the Sun Belt right now? Coastal is separating itself from the pack at the moment, but the rest of the conference seems to be getting muddier with several teams just sort of hanging around.
Aaron Fitt
1:16
Yeah it's murky, isn't it? Troy is suddenly kinda back in the mix after taking a series from Texas State, which is still in second place and hanging onto at-large position, but the next two weeks will make or break the Bobcats' at-large chances. Southern Miss built such a strong nonconference foundation that the Golden Eagles still have a chance to host even if they don't win the Sun Belt -- which is now starting to look like a daunting proposition, given Coastal's five-game lead over USM. Troy, Arkansas State and Louisiana are the only other two teams with RPIs close to at-large range right now, though South Alabama isn't too far out of the mix -- but all of those teams have serious warts on their resumés too. So a big muddle after Coastal and USM -- but even USM is getting a little confusing at just 8-7 in the league. Stay tuned.
Lance
1:16
Both Vandy and LSU seem to have RPI issues and we're at the point of the season where RPI is starting to take shape.  Will those teams have the right RPI if they finish with 13-14 SEC wins?  That's usually the magic number of conference wins but not sure the RPI number will stack up.
Kendall Rogers
1:16
Lance -- I'll go on record as saying if LSU and/or Vanderbilt have an RPI of 55-65 or something like that, and only have 13-14 league wins in the SEC, they will not be in the NCAA tournament. I feel pretty confident in that being the case if those two things are true.
Aaron Fitt
1:23
I'll give you a different spin here -- Warren Nolan's prediction tool forecasts LSU to finish 14-16 in the SEC with a No. 43 RPI... so if they get to 14 wins in league, I think that's a reasonable spot to expect their RPI to be. And if that's the case, they'll be on the bubble, probably need a win or two in Hoover. The RPI math looks worse for Vandy... they're gonna have to finish with at least 16 wins in the league, it appears. And we have seen ACC teams (Louisville) win 16 games in the league and miss out on regionals with bad RPIs in the 50s or 60s.... that could be Vandy's fate. I agree with KR, there's no way an SEC team gets a bid with an RPI outside the top 50.
Frank
1:20
Is there a team whose RPI doesn't match how good they actually are?
Aaron Fitt
1:20
I think NC State is a lot better than its No. 61 RPI -- but I am still buying stock on the Wolfpack moving way up that RPI list over the final 5 weeks. Vandy (100) and LSU (74) will also prove to be much better than their current RPIs, I suspect -- and those RPIs will also move way up. It's still quite early on the RPI front, those SEC teams can rocket quickly with a big weekend, especially on the road.
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