JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 13

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 13

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Nebraska and Oregon

1:24

What a series! If you didn’t watch much, that series was great. Both teams can really hit and have pieces that can pitch.

Aaron Fitt

1:24

That was my sense as well -- two legitimate contenders there, teams that can really make noise in the postseason if they are playing well at the right time. Felt like that series really could have gone either way. Actually pretty encouraged by Nebraska's showing on the road against a very good Oregon team, even though the Huskers couldn't pull out the series win.

Dallas

1:26

Does DBU have a chance to be an at-large if they finish really strong or is their only hope winning the CUSA Tournament?

Aaron Fitt

1:26

Jeez they have a lot of work to do. The RPI math doesn't look great... I think they have a chance to work their way onto the bubble (right now they're not even on the bubble, with an RPI in the 70s), but I'm not sure they can do enough to get themselves into a really good at-large position. Gonna take a torrid finish, I think.

Josh

1:26

Thanks for the time guys. Is it possible that this is the year that Coastal gets a little more respect and grabs a hold of a national seed? Last year they should have been a top 8 seed and slid to 13. Thanks again.

Kendall Rogers

1:26

I'll go on record as saying if Coastal continues to just roll over the Sun Belt and finishes with an RPI within range of being a Top 8, it should 100% be a top eight seed. What that team has done this season with all of the setbacks is nothing short of remarkable. Awesome coaching job by that staff. Coastal also has a very strong NSOS to fall back on as well.

Andrew

1:28

Cajuns have... life? Have to hope a big series win gets this club turned around. Obviously a big if, but would 2 out of 3 the rest of the way outside of Coastal get them in?

Kendall Rogers

1:28

The Cajuns have a pretty respectable RPI in the low-40s -- the main issue right now is the league. You just aren't getting into the NCAA tournament as a Sun Belt team with a league record hovering around .500. The Cajuns need to go on a big-time run here, which won't be easy with trips to Troy and Arkansas State on the docket the next two weekends. Big weekend series win against USM, though!

Eric Simmons

1:28

Time to be concerned about Mississippi State after getting swept in back to back SEC Series with both of them coming at home?

Aaron Fitt

1:28

I am definitely perplexed, Eric. I'm still not going to go as far as "concerned" -- because I'm a patient guy who has learned how to weather the ups and downs and then ups again that are inherent in a long baseball season. This is a bad two-week dip, and a pretty stunning turn of events considering both series were at home, and how good we thought (and in my case, STILL think) MSU is. But I believe in that roster and those coaches. They'll bounce back. So no, I am not concerned about them in the long term of the season.

Guest

1:31

Why are yall so hypocritical when it comes to ranking Florida? Resume is top 10 but you have them ranked 20. Even the latest metric post proves the ranking is extremely low and the lowest among all major sites.

Aaron Fitt

1:31

Here we go, let's get to the good stuff! "Hypocritical" -- YES! Don't forget "BIAST!!!"

Florida seems incapable of winning back-to-back series -- that's why they are not higher in the rankings. Every time they take a step forward, they immediately take a step back the following week. Win a series against Miami? Cool! Then the next week, how about a home series loss to a Big South team... not cool. Sweep a struggling South Carolina team? OK. Then the next week, get swept by Alabama, a team that had lost 4 straight at that point? Not cool. Sweep Arkansas, they're back! Lose a home series to unranked Ole Miss? Ugh. You have to sustain momentum in real life in order to sustain momentum in the rankings. Surely that can't be so hard to understand.

Eric Simmons

1:32

Can the Conference USA be a 3 bid league this year?

Kendall Rogers

1:32

I think I'd predict Conference USA to be a three-bid league as of today with Liberty, Missouri State and Jacksonville State making the field. I do think the 'third' team out of that group would be pretty susceptible on Selection Day, however. I just don't trust the committee to give that league that much love.

Guest

1:34

How Close is Tennessee to being ranked after a sweep in Starkville?

Aaron Fitt

1:34

Back in the mix, for sure -- which is quite a jump for a team that was 4-8 in the SEC just a week ago. But suddenly that resumé looks a whole lot better -- 7-8 in the league is much more palatable, the RPI is fine, and a marquee road sweep goes a long way in improving a team's stock. If we had a few more empty spots this week, the Vols might have snuck in.

TXBaseball

1:36

Hard to make sense of the gap between Texas and A&M in the rankings this week given their identical records and a H2H series sweep for the Aggies. I think its just wrong.

But my question is about the Texas lineup. Texas pitching was meh but the A&M offense is really good. But the lineup against what is pretty universally thought of as a mediocre pitching staff? And its not a one off. Last week Texas was held to 10 runs total in 3 games against SC. Can you trust anyone in this lineup outside of Tinney and Robbins?

Kendall Rogers

1:36

I was just talking to someone about this over the weekend while at the A&M-Texas series. I think for Texas, not having Adrian Rodriguez in the lineup means a lot. His numbers weren't overly impressive so far this season, but just his presence in the lineup helps because he typically has a pretty good eye at the plate. I also think not having an athletic guy like Jonah Williams out there has also hurt. Ultimately, as long as A-Rod is out, the Longhorns really need Casey Borba to produce, and he had a rough weekend against the Aggies. I'm still very bullish on the UT pitching staff, but the lineup definitely needs to rise to the occasion. Aiden Robbins can't be Superman, though he is pretty close sometimes.

Acres

1:37

Are you buying the A&M surge or was last weekend more of an adrenaline series?

Kendall Rogers

1:37

Obviously, the Aggies played really well. I'll say some was emotion, some was that the Aggies are pretty good. Two things stand out to me: A&M is infinitely better defensively so far this season, and its offensive approach looks very solid right now. The Aggies had a plethora of great ABs over the weekend, and they're showing they can do much more than just hit the long ball. I think they're playing pretty well right now, but you can't afford to step back going into Baton Rouge. If there's a place that can humble you real quick .... it is BR.

Acott

1:38

The beavers seem to be finding a way to win some very close games. Competition level has also dropped. Is there worry for them to drop out of hosting a super regional at this point? Also what do you think of the frosh morris pitching so far?

Aaron Fitt

1:38

Yeah I certainly don't think Oregon State is close to a lock for the top 8. Right now, it's a top-eight resumé, but it's still just a 3-2 mark against Q1, which is weak compared with the other teams they'll be competing with for top 8 spots -- and those other teams are all going to have more chances to get Q1 wins, while OSU will not. That's just the reality of being a D1 independent -- the job is harder, because you just don't have as many opportunities to accrue marquee wins. Doesn't mean it can't be done, but the Beavs just have to keep on winning at this crazy clip -- there's not much margin for error if they want a top 8 spot.

Rice Fan

1:40

If Rice can return to the tournament this year, is David Pierce in contention for coach of year? Lots of work to do - probably need to win every series from here on out (i.e. @ECU looks especially tough), but progress has been impressive.

Kendall Rogers

1:40

There's zero doubt that Coach Pierce has the Owls playing a much better brand of baseball right now. Hell, the Owls are up to 55 in the RPI, but the resume just lacks high-end wins. I think you're onto something that the ECU series is pretty much a must-win to get in with an at-large bid. There's just not much there in the way of resume at the moment. Love seeing this program making strides, though.

John

1:40

Thoughts on the OVC?

Aaron Fitt

1:40

Feels like a good year for the OVC! Eastern Illinois SIUE, SEMO and Little Rock all feel like quality clubs that could cause some trouble in a regional -- all four fall into that "4-seed you don't want to face" bucket for me, though EIU and SEMO have RPIs that could theoretically get them 3 seeds. Ultimately it's still going to be a one-bid league, but I also think it's a very positive season for the conference.

FittsMagic

1:43

Does the ACC have an RPI problem after its top 2 teams?

Aaron Fitt

1:43

I don't think it's bad really -- GT, UNC, FSU and UVa are all still in hosting shape in the RPI currently, with BC, Miami and Wake in striking range. Clemson and NC State have RPIs to be at-large teams. It's looking grim for Louisville, and Notre Dame and Pitt are suddenly free-falling... but I still think it's tracking toward being an 8 or 9 bid league with 4ish hosts -- pretty typical year for the ACC, I think.

FittsMagic

1:44

How about Rob DiToma at the The Dons being tied for first out west? Do you think DiToma's name gets mentioned in some east coast jumps next summer?

Kendall Rogers

1:44

The Dons have certainly done a nice job in the conference, and Rob is a good coach. With that said, that league is pretty rough (ranked No. 18 in the RPI), and the Dons have an RPI of 234.

Mark

1:45

Is there any chance, at all, that the committee would send the Ducks to Corvallis for a regional or will they do whatever they can to make sure it doesn't happen?

Aaron Fitt

1:45

I mean sure, why couldn't it happen? They're not in the same conference -- we see arch-rivals who aren't in the same conference get paired together all the time (Florida/FSU, Texas/A&M, Florida/Miami, etc.). If the Ducks don't wind up hosting, they could certainly wind up in Corvallis -- would just make sense, if the new 32-team S-curve fits right. There's some wiggle room with that S-curve, but if they are in roughly the right spots on that pecking order, it makes obvious geographic sense to pair them.

Scott

1:47

Well where is your LSU panic meter at lol? Also, it sounds like there may be some concerns that Jay Johnson has with NIL funding at LSU currently (I'm sure still high just not "unlimited" like it may have been in the past). The money has to slow down at LSU eventually and with Lane Kiffin and Will Wade being thrown the world, as crazy as it sounds do things start to slow down a little for LSU Baseball?

Kendall Rogers

1:47

I'm never going to count LSU out because I've seen them rise out of the ashes so many times, but I think I'd be 'slightly' surprised if this team started to put all the pieces together. The math is starting to get difficult if you lose the A&M series at home, though. If you lose that series, and let's assume you lose the series at Georgia and MSU (but get one each weekend), sweep SC. That puts you at 12-15 entering the Florida series. I just don't think an SEC team with an RPI of 40-50 and with 13-14 league wins is getting into the NCAA tournament. Hell, there have been years where SEC teams with 13-14 wins barely make it in with an RPI of 28, much less 45.

Tommy

1:49

Just a comment that this sport's parity is off the charts. Healey commented that it can be frustrating to tell a story - completely understood, but the story is insane Parity and the next two months is going to be so thrilling

Aaron Fitt

1:49

Yeah I'm kinda on board with the chaos -- even though it makes the Top 25 a maddening exercise, which makes lots of people mad at us! Hey, comes with the territory. Let the chaos reign and enjoy the ride, I say.

Grace

1:51

What are our thoughts on WVU, I think right now they have a fair chance of hosting a regional and their big 12 regular season is pretty much downhill from here. Along with that for the Big 12 tournament how far do we think they will make it?

Aaron Fitt

1:51

Definitely think WVU is trending toward hosting -- but a long way to go, plenty of potential pitfalls still ahead on the schedule (road series at Cincinnati and certainly at Kansas are no picnics, plus K-State and TCU at home aren't gimmes either). I think the Big 12 is gonna be a melee all the way until the end, I don't see any team running away with it, including WVU. But ultimately I do like WVU the best if I'm betting on a Big 12 team to make a deep run in June. Love that they have significant super regional experience on that roster, and really like the roster composition in general.

SD Southpaw

1:53

What are your thoughts about the Big West? Are two bids on the table? Not sure if you caught the series in Santa Barbara this weekend? The Gauchos were a heartbeat away from losing the series on Saturday and then they reeled it back in. Four runs were the difference over three games.

Kendall Rogers

1:53

It's basically three teams and nobody else league in terms of the postseason picture. UCSD continues to lead the league (one game ahead of UCSB and Cal Poly), but there's a lot of work to do there with an RPI of 54 and with a 3-10 mark vs. Q1 teams. That just isn't going to cut it. I feel pretty good about UCSB getting into the field no matter what, while Cal Poly's RPI just isn't going to hold up and be enough.

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