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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 17
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Greg
12:04
Is there a path to ASU hosting? Only 30 in the RPI but plenty of chances over the next few weeks to boost that
Kendall Rogers
12:04
Absolutely. You're right that ASU is likely out right now, but if the Sun Devils finished strong against that remaining schedule, there's little doubt they'd be heavily in the hosting mix. The RPI would be within range, and the Devils would likely have a very good standing in the Pac 12.
Westside Warror
12:06
It seems that the Big West may be closer to 3 Bids, than 1 Bid.   Do you greed?
Kendall Rogers
12:06
I feel pretty confident about Fullerton and UCSB right now, but I do still feel like teams like CSUN, Long Beach State and UCI have more work to do. The fact that UCI has a losing record in the Big West would be a negative on its resume. However, the 'Eaters also have a series win @ Arizona State. They are definitely within striking distance to reaching that goal, however.
Roberto
12:06
Do we think the Clemson tigers have a chance to turn it around?
Aaron Fitt
12:06
Yeah, Clemson is hanging in there -- back to back series wins, have improved that ACC record to 6-9. Still think there's tough sledding ahead -- at NC State, at BC, vs. Louisville, at Virginia Tech, vs. UNC the rest of the way is a very daunting stretch, so I'm not ready to buy Clemson as a regional team yet. But if they win that series in Raleigh, they've got a real chance, and momentum. They do have athletes and arm strength, so they've got a chance.
HT
12:07
Curious on Coastal going 3-2 and moving up 7 sports. Thank you.
Kendall Rogers
12:07
HT -- Weird week in the Top 25 rankings with double digit teams losing weekend series. Also, going on the road and splitting a midweek set with Campbell AND going on the road and taking 2/3 from ODU is pretty impressive in my eyes. Coastal has been ultra consistent and that was rewarded this week.
cool 1
Terpitude
12:09
I'm now seriously concerned about Maryland making the NCAA Tournament. What are their chances if they finish second in the B1G regular season standings with something like a 17-7 record?
Aaron Fitt
12:09
The Terps are not in a position of strength right now, with an RPI outside the top 60, but they do keep on winning series. I think they'll probably have to win the Big Ten regular-season title to put themselves in at-large position though, considering that RPI issue. Feels like Maryland scheduled aggressively but it just hasn't played out in their favor, with Ole Miss struggling in particular. That Albany series is also a major drain on their RPI, as the Great Danes are just 4-22-1, so those three games are killing Maryland.
TTUFan
12:09
How big of an issue is Texas Tech's RPI going to be to make the tourney? It didnt move from the low 60s after a road split vs Stanford and road series win vs OU. How will the committee handle that?
Kendall Rogers
12:09
TTU -- As long as Texas Tech finishes in the top four in the Big 12 and has an RPI in the 40s and 50s, it will easily make the NCAA tournament, IMO. History is on the Red Raiders' side. With that said, there's not a lot of margin for error the final few weeks of the regular season. I'll also add this -- the human polls will help the Red Raiders here. For instance, if the season ended today, they'd easily get in based on the fact everyone has them ranked.
Hogs23
12:10
At this point, does the SEC get five Top 8 seeds? Who's the closest to being excluded (and "only" being a top 16) among those five teams?
Aaron Fitt
12:10
I think it's very safe to project Vandy, Arkanss, LSU and Florida as slam-dunk hosts and strong candidates for top eight seeds. Not sure I see a fifth one getting in there however; it depends if Kentucky can keep this up. They're still No. 1 in the RPI and in great shape at 10-5 in the league, but UK's remaining schedule is very hard, so I don't envision them sticking in that top eight by the end. Still a strong chance to host, though.
Spencer
12:10
How many bids does the Big Ten look like they will get? With Iowa struggling in conference play is this turning into a 1 bid league?
Kendall Rogers
12:10
Spencer -- great question. Indiana would most certainly be in if the season ended today, and I think the league would get one more team no matter what. Michigan State could be that team and I still have confidence Iowa and Maryland can finish strong. Nebraska's RPI is the really, really odd one to me. At 112, it pretty much has zero shot outside of winning the Big Ten tournament.
Hogs23
12:12
Arkansas has a 1.5 game lead on LSU in the SEC West at this point, but, as noted in several places, LSU has a seemingly easier remaining schedule. What win number do you think wins the West? Who do you think has the edge?
Aaron Fitt
12:12
Yeah, LSU is in pretty good shape at 9-5 in the league having already gone through the toughest part of their SEC schedule. The remaining schedule (at Ole Miss, vs. Bama, at Auburn, vs. MSU, at Georgia) is about as favorable as it gets in this version of the SEC. The Hogs have a tougher road with series left vs. A&M, vs. SC, at Vandy. Feels like this race could come down to the wire. I think 20-21 wins will be necessary to win the division.
JT
12:13
Sun Belt showdown in Conway! Do you see the winner of this Coastal/Southern Miss series being in the driver seat for a host? Both have solid RPI.
Kendall Rogers
12:13
JT -- that's a really good question, and considering where the two teams are in the RPI, you could accurately say that the winner of the series probably controls their own destiny the final weeks of the regular season. Coastal is at 10 and Southern Miss is at 15. Pretty strong!
L1C4
12:14
Thoughts on Louisville's hosting chances?
Kendall Rogers
12:14
Still very much in the mix. the RPI is a little low to host at 26 and with a record one game over .500 in the ACC, but the Cards have a chance to make a real move the next two weekends @ Duke and at home against Miami. Win those two series and I feel pretty confident about U of L hosting at the end of the season.
Safjock
12:14
Aaron, you picked Tennessee to take the series in Fayetteville this weekend. Not only did Arkansas win the series, but the Hogs swept the Vols, and none of the games were particularly close. Seems like you have doubted Dave Van Horn and this Razorback team all year.  They now sit in second place in the SEC, trailing only Vandy. What do you need to see from them to believe they are a legitimate contender?
Aaron Fitt
12:14
Well I placed a bet on Tennessee's pitching returning to form, and it didn't work out -- what can I say, I got that one wrong. But to say I've doubted Arkansas all season long is absurd; the only other time I've picked against them was at LSU, and they lost that series. I've been riding for the Hogs since the fall, when I wrote glowing praise for their team. C'mon, Sajfock, try to keep up!
pigs
12:15
No Wegner, No Frank, No Tygart, No Wiggins, No problem.  How long can the hogs keep it up and do we a realistic shot at winning the SEC?  Vandy and Carolina are ahead in the standing, but we get a chance to hurt their records the last 2 weeks of the regular season. LSU does appear to a much easier go to finish the season as well.
Kendall Rogers
12:15
PIGS -- I think what we're all re-realizing is that Dave Van Horn is one damn good coach. I mean, the Hogs lost those studs on the mound and guys like Gage Wood are coming out of the bullpen throwing bullets. Offensively, no Jared Wegner against Tennessee? No problem. This has been one of his best coaching jobs for sure because this team is playing over their skis a little bit, IMO.
FittsMagic
12:17
Dudy Noble field drew 16,423 (well below avg.) on Saturday while the whole Pac-12 combined for 12,194...if somehow the Dogs can go on a run, and Stanford plays avg, is there a chance that the committee would ever give a regional to State as a #2 vs. a snooze fest on the West Coast
laughing 3 vomit 1
Kendall Rogers
12:17
Absolutely not. Why would you reward a team with a one seed by sending them on the road to a hostile atmosphere? That would make zero sense.
cool 1
Matt M
12:17
New to college baseball... could you briefly explain the major differences between your rankings and RPI?  Why is a team like DBU with a high RPI not ranked - or conversely, what is it you see in a team like Texas Tech with a low RPI and high ranking?
Aaron Fitt
12:17
Part of it is that we place a lot of value on the high end of a team's resumé when constructing our rankings -- we care about winning series against quality teams, and we don't really care if you also swept a series against a 4-22 team in nonconference. But the RPI will crush you if you happen to play a 4-22 team for three games -- your opponent's record has an outsized impact on the RPI rankings, which is one of the reasons that is an imperfect tool. We value series wins greatly because that is a great indicator of a team's ability to win in the postseason, but the RPI doesn't care about series wins, it treats all games the same, and if you go 1-2 on the road against a really good team, you often get rewarded in the RPI. Because we're trying to rank the best teams, we blend resumés with talent as well, although as the season progresses the pendulum shifts more and more toward a team's body of work, and less away from talent, because at some point you are what your record is.
AggieFan
12:18
Thoughts on Texas A&M at this point in the season? And where y’all think they will end up? Thanks y’all!
Kendall Rogers
12:18
Aggie -- I feel better about A&M, but I'm still iffy on the pithing staff as a whole. They need some guys to step up. Evan Aschenbeck has really stepped up, and Brandyn Garcia has turned into a quality option out of the bullpen. But they still need more consistent (and much better) starting pitching. I still think the Aggies are a scary team, but the jury is still out.
Robert
12:20
How do you evaluate a team like ECU?  They have 3 legit pitchers and are strong offensively but their AAC conf appears weak this year.  Seems like their mid week non conf will be important to maintaining a top 10 ranking?  Thoughts?
Aaron Fitt
12:20
Yeah the American is down outside of ECU, so we expect the Pirates to dominate the league, and if they do they will remain in that top 10 and strongly in the mix to earn a top-eight seed, but you're right that those quality midweek games against the likes of NC State, Campbell, ODU, UNCW and UNC will play a huge role in helping complete ECU's resumé and solidifying their top-eight chances in the eyes of the committee. I agree with your overall assessment though: this ECU team is very good. Really love their pitching, in particular, and the lineup is plenty good enough for this team to make an Omaha run.
Big 12 Fan
12:22
Who should be the favorite to win the Big 12 right now? Is it really Texas?
Aaron Fitt
12:22
Gosh, what a question. Feels like a huge toss-up to me -- I don't think anybody envisioned K-State being a half-game out of first place right now. I feel like any of the top six teams in the standings could realistically win the league. But I do like UT's position based on its current perch atop the standings and a mostly favorable remaining schedule. That series at TCU in a couple weeks could be huge.
Guest
12:23
ODU has struggled the past 8 games. I knew it was going to be tough during this stretch of UVA, So Miss, ECU and Coastal, but 2-6 is disappointing. How do they rebound?
Kendall Rogers
12:23
I think the big thing for me is consistency. As you look through some of the games, it seems like on days the pitching is good, the offense is non existent, and vice versa.  The next two weekends @ Appy and Texas State are really tricky (App is better and I still think TXST is scary). Win those two and ODU will be fine, but the margin for error is not great with the RPI declining a bit.
Greg
12:25
With six mid-majors in the top 25 and four in the top 16, how many mid-majors could we see host?
Aaron Fitt
12:25
I think Coastal is in the best position to host based on its current spot at No. 9 in the RPI, and the fact that the Sun Belt is strong this year means Coastal should remain in good RPI shape if it can continue to win in the league -- this weekend against Southern Miss is huge. If the Golden Eagles win that series, I love their chances to host, and even if they lose two out of three they should remain right in the hunt, considering they're currently 15th in the RPI. ECU feels like a lock to host, and UConn is also in great shape with a No. 16 RPI, but we'll see if they can maintain that RPI in the Big East, which figures to be a drag on their SOS as the season continues. I think DBU is a darkhorse here -- I like the Patriots to win C-USA, and they're currently 18th in the RPI and red-hot. Their pitching is real; wouldn't surprise me to see them leapfrog some of these others. Campbell fell a bunch in the RPI after that Longwood series, showing how hard it can be to build a host resumé in a lesser league.
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