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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 17
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JB
12:26
When is K State going to start getting some love?
Kendall Rogers
12:26
JB -- I saw Kansas State earlier this season, and there's no doubt it's a solid and better team, but let's pump the brakes on them getting love in the Top 25 -- right now, the Wildcats have series wins over Kansas and Oklahoma in conference play. Kansas is improved, but OU is just a bad baseball team right now. Two strong weekends @ UCI and at home against Texas Tech would certainly bolster them in my eyes. I'm a big fan of the top three guys in that lineup in Brady Day, Nick Goodwin and Cash Rugely.
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GeoDawg
12:27
Level with me. What are the odds that Mississippi State can find 8 more wins vs Auburn, LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas A&M? It seems like we'll need a sweep, an upset, or both.
Aaron Fitt
12:27
If I'm projecting, I could see State getting 7 more wins to finish 12-18, but you're right, it's going to be hard to get more than that. But they DO have talent, and they are playing better; maybe this is a second-half darkhorse that could indeed pull off some upset series wins. I really don't think the Bulldogs are out of it by any means; but it's a tough path.
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Greg
12:27
O/U 9.5 SEC teams in Regionals, what are you taking?
Kendall Rogers
12:27
Over.
PacFanatic
12:28
Who’s your gut pick to win the Pac at this point? What a mess that race has turned into
Aaron Fitt
12:28
I think I'm still betting on Stanford -- even after this weekend, they're still in great shape at 11-4 in the Pac, and now they get two important series at home in Washington and UCLA. Ultimately I just think Stanford has the best team, even if they are flawed, and I think the cream will rise to the top there.
Joe
12:29
How many bids do you see the Pac-12 receiving at this point?
Kendall Rogers
12:29
Joe -- I think five is a safe bet this week. I think there could be a sixth from USC or Washington, but the issue with those teams is that USC is now at 77 in the RPI (not getting in with that) and UW is 64 (probably not getting in with that). The league needs one of those two to go on a run down the stretch to have a chance at a sixth.
GeoDawg
12:29
How about this Southern Miss vs Coastal Carolina series coming up?! Barring any stumbles down the stretch, the winner of this series looks to be playing home ball come June.
Aaron Fitt
12:29
I'm planning to be in Conway for that showdown this weekend, really looking forward to it. And as I said earlier, I agree that the winner of this series is really in prime position to host.
Guest
12:29
Does Wake have enough in the tank to go on a title run?
Kendall Rogers
12:29
Guest -- considering Wake doesn't have two of its better players and is still winning a road series at Louisville with ease? Absolutely. I've been so impressed with their overall consistency despite some injuries.
Earl
12:32
Good morning fellas, I’m really starting to get nervous with this LSU pitching staff and the amount of errors lately,I know the schedule lightens up but when u have only a Friday guy things can get Dicey!!!! Any cause for concerns? I don’t care how good of a hitting team u have good pitching will shut that down regionals or supers !!  Right now I think the Hogs win the west and Vandy the East  Thanx guys y’all are the best
Aaron Fitt
12:32
Yeah, I think it's fair to be just a little concerned, for the reasons you mentioned. They are injury-depleted on the mound, and as much as I still like the arm strength on that staff, they're simply going to need better performances from some of those talented arms. And it does feel like the defense is starting to show some cracks, after fielding at a very high clip in the first half. Obviously their offensive firepower is ridiculous and Skenes is such a difference maker, but they don't seem invincible, that's for sure. Give them a ton of credit for continuing to win every series though -- I think this team has a lot of toughness and poise, and that stuff does matter a lot, even if it can't be quantified.
Guest
12:33
What would it take for DBU to crack the top 25? RPI has soared from 38 to 18, record is 27-9, on 10 game win streak. Some teams who are ranked are several spots behind in RPI - UTSA 29, UCLA 27, Oregon St. 40, Arizona St. 32, North Carolina 39, Texas Tech 62
Aaron Fitt
12:33
DBU has been right there on the edge of our rankings the last couple weeks, the problem is Southern Miss had to be in before them because the Golden Eagles swept the head-to-head series against DBU. Still, as I said above, I am really high on DBU's team and expect them to be ranked very soon, probably next week.
Brendan Bell
12:36
Of potential at-large candidates, which team do you feel like is the biggest RPI “victim” who’s number is far below their body of work/performance so far.
Aaron Fitt
12:36
Maryland is one, as I mentioned above. Texas Tech is another -- they scheduled some quality nonconference opponents (Gonzaga, Iowa, Michigan, A&M, at Stanford) but they've been crushed by sweeping four games against Western Illinois (4-26) and taking two of three from North Dakota State (10-24). Another example of a handful of nonconference games against weak opponents undermining a body of work that is actually pretty impressive overall.
Brendan Bell
12:39
Is it time to stop asking on if the CAA is a two-bid league and start asking it it’s a THREE bid-league?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
I don't think so -- RPI is just unlikely to work out that way. Two still feels like a realistic possibility, though Elon hurt its cause with a series loss to W&M this weekend, but the Phoenix remains in solid at-large shape with a No. 34 RPI, so if that continues and Elon doesn't get the AQ, feels like that could make it a two-bid league. The only other viable at-large team right now in terms of RPI is Northeastern at No. 47, though UNCW made a big move this week with that series win at TCU -- but it's still just No. 70. I like what UNCW has done, but there is considerably more RPI work to do before we can put UNCW in the at-large bucket. It does feel like the CAA has five regional-caliber teams at the top, but the teams at the bottom will be a drag on the RPI of those contenders, unfortunately.
Raider
12:39
Have you ever seen a conference have so much parody than the Big 12 this year. I know y'all said there is not an elite team but I think that is what made this year fun so far. Anyone can beat anyone.
Kendall Rogers
12:39
Raider, it has definitely been fun to watch to say the least. The only issue I see with the Big 12 is I don't think there's an elite team in that group. Oklahoma State is clearly having issues without Nolan McLean, Texas Tech is just okay and Texas is a decent team -- far from a great team. I have a bad feeling about the Big 12 come postseason time, but let's see how the rest of the season pans out. It certainly makes the regular season fun.
Chris
12:41
ECU rose to #7. What are the Pirates’ current odds to be a top 8 seed for the tournament?
Kendall Rogers
12:41
Chris -- if East Carolina continues to take care of business in the American and has a Top 8-10 RPI on Selection Monday, it's hard to imagine the Pirates not being a top-eight seed come NCAA tournament time.
ChipsFan24
12:41
What do you think the MAC will look like come conference tournament time? And who is the favorite?
Aaron Fitt
12:41
Interesting race right now -- we all thought Ball State was the favorite, but obviously the Chippewas reminded us that they're still a major factor by sweeping the Cardinals this weekend. Right now it's hard for me to separate those top four -- Kent State, Ohio, Ball State and CMU -- but I like how CMU is trending. Of course, it will come down to the conference tournament and be a one-bid league regardless; but I'm not sure who to bet on for the top seed. Central Michigan also has a series win against first-place Kent State, remember. If I have to pick somebody to emerge from this melee and get into a regional, I think I'm betting on the Chips.
pigs
12:42
How about Jace Bohrofen this year living up to his potential?  I see him as a top five bat in the SEC.
Kendall Rogers
12:42
That has been great to see. I remember when he was at Oklahoma, we kind of expected him to blow up, and it never happened. Same with last season at Arkansas. Now, when the Hogs need him the most, he has risen to the occasion. No one has ever doubted the talent level. You're finally starting to see it.
HotRod
12:43
How many teams from the CAA make the postseason?
Kendall Rogers
12:43
Hot Rod -- I would say two right now. Elon and Northeastern as a bubble team IN. I've also got my eye on UNCW down the stretch. The RPI is out of range at 70, but it is coming off a massive weekend @ TCU.
AaronT
12:46
Other than Wake, do you see any ACC with the potential to make it to Omaha?
Aaron Fitt
12:46
Wake feels like the only legitimately elite team in the ACC this year, by far the most complete team in the conference. But there are plenty of other GOOD teams in the league who aren't quite elite but could still get hot in June and get to Omaha -- I'd put Virginia, Louisville, NC State, UNC, Miami and Virginia Tech all in that category. Feels like BC is fading; both the Eagles and Duke have more to prove to me before I put them in that second tier, but we've certainly seen flashes of it from both. Heck, there's a reason BC was ranked in the top 10 like two weeks ago. We'll see how their pitching holds up down the stretch.
VolNation
12:46
How did this happen with the best staff in the conference all returning.  5-10 with 3 winnable series plus Vandy and South Carolina.  Do you still see a path???  If not, let me down easy lol.
Kendall Rogers
12:46
Vol Nation -- it's been really odd to watch Tennessee as much as I have so far this season. I thought the Vols were such a confident team last year, and now, you look at the team in games, and there's just not that same vibe. That's not to suggest at all that there are locker room issues or anything like that, but there's no doubt this team doesn't have anywhere near the personality/confidence of last year's club. It's also easier to show that personality when you're smoking everyone. I still think Tennessee is dangerous because at some point, the cream has to rise to the top, right? Well, sometimes it doesn't. My confidence is waning right now.
@SECbaseball
12:46
Without naming names, how many SEC head jobs could potentially come open if teams turn south down the stretch?

Do the turnarounds of South Carolina and Kentucky potentially give optimism and buy some of those coaches a little more time, or the opposite?
Kendall Rogers
12:46
My prediction on the SEC and open jobs right now would be a two ... and none of those two would be Nick Mingione or Mark Kingston. I'm not sure how either of those guys could possibly be in the discussion at this point in the season.
JD Major
12:47
Is USM's offense coming around? Or was this weekend just against a bad team?
Aaron Fitt
12:47
I was really high on the Southern Miss offense coming into the season, and I found their first-half sluggishness kind of baffling, because there are a lot of very accomplished veterans with strong track records in that lineup. I feel like now they're starting to perform up to their potential. Up arrow for the USM offense.
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