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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 18
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Mike
12:27
Coach OZ at USM will be a hot commodity come summer. You think he gets a head coach gig?
Kendall Rogers
12:27
Mike -- I think someone should take a very hard look at Christian Ostrander. Guy is an awesome, awesome pitching coach, and I love the fact that he grinded his way up in JUCO ball at one point.
Big 12 Fan
12:27
Explain the Big 12 hosting scenarios to me.
Seems like Ok State is in pretty good shape atop the conference and #16 in the RPI.
Then you have Tech who is still a top-10 team that fell to #39 in the RPI, Texas who is 6-6 in the league but has the highest RPI (#12) and TCU who climbed back into the rankings but is still #36 in the RPI.
Aaron Fitt
12:27
Interesting observations here -- the Big 12 is the No. 3 RPI conference but only has one slam-dunk host team at this particular moment, Oklahoma State. Obviously we would expect Tech and TCU to climb in the RPI if they can keep winning in the league, and we expect Texas will eventually finish well above .500 in the standings, so I still think all four of them could conceivably host, and I would probably bet on 3 out of the 4 safely. Still a long way to go. But you're right, if the season ended today, there's really only one slam dunk, based on the metrics.
Bruin
12:30
How many bids do you think the Pac-12 gets? AZ has been faltering. ASU could finish 6th in conference but RPI and win total low... 5 solid teams
Kendall Rogers
12:30
I'm sitting at four pretty safe bids for the Pac 12 -- Oregon State, Oregon, Stanford and UCLA. I still think Arizona will find its way. Too much talent not to -- and I think the Wildcats will get into the tournament. I don't see the Pac 12 getting more than five bids.
Robbie Rebel
12:32
OK, can we now please end the love fest with my Rebels? Aaron makes me feel good about us getting it together every Monday chat, but I think it’s fair to say, we just suck. Pitching has no prayer and everyone but Elko has massively regressed. We aren’t making the field are we?
Aaron Fitt
12:32
This one just baffles me, Robbie -- there's too much talent and track record for this team to be 5-10 in the SEC. Right now, Ole Miss is certainly not on track to make a regional. I'm not ready to completely give up on them, still think they can make a run... but my faith is definitely wavering. Time is ticking.
Sam
12:34
Thoughts on Tony’s suspension and the incident Saturday?
Kendall Rogers
12:34
Sam -- Tony is a fiery dude and he fights with his team. And there's history with the particular umpire in question. And even though Macias was ultra dramatic with the way he jumped back, Tony knows you simply can't touch an umpire. The suspension was warranted, but I have no issue with the idea that Tony was fighting for his team. Just can't bump people. Water under the bridge IMO.
WC_Drew
12:35
Cal State Fullerton is currently 3rd in the Big West sitting 2 games behind UCSB in the lost column and 1 game behind Cal Poly. Admittedly 6 of those 8 division wins came against Davis & Riverside, but is there any chance this Titans team can pull off an epic late season comeback like those great teams of the past?
Aaron Fitt
12:35
Stranger things have happened, but it sure seems unlikely to me, notwithstanding that current conference record. I just don't think the talent level on this Fullerton team is anywhere near those great Titan teams of the past, and the final three weeks on the schedule are daunting. These guys are still just 13-20 overall.... I don't feel an epic run coming.
Captain Crunch
12:35
Is the American Athletic Conference going to be a 1 Bid League?
Kendall Rogers
12:35
Cap -- My hunch is that it somehow finds a way to get to two bids like last year. ECU might just be finding its stride (finally) and Tulane/Houston are both teams I could buy some stock in. I liked what I saw from both clubs on Friday night.
John
12:37
Is the only the AAC gets 2 bids is ECU not winning the conference tourny and getting an at large? Tulane and Houston seem like post season caliber teams but RPI out of striking range for at large. Thought?
Aaron Fitt
12:37
And right now even ECU would be very much on the bubble, with a No. 54 RPI. I think either ECU or Tulane would need to pull away from the pack and continue to strengthen its RPI rank to solidify its at-large position, then get knocked off in the conference tourney, for this to be a two-bid league. Really doesn't look like the American has much of a chance to get more than two.
Adam
12:39
As a Canes fan can I write off the loss in Blacksburg as a one -- off who is this a harbinger of things to come? & what does Miami have to do to get back on track against a game Pitt Team which swept us last year coming to the Light?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
I just think that was a tough assignment -- Virginia Tech is playing very well right now, and Blacksburg is not an easy place to play when the Hokies are rolling, especially with all those scary bats. Pitt is dangerous too, clearly, but at the moment we don't know how healthy the Panthers will be this weekend, and that feels like a get-right weekend for Miami at home.
David
12:39
Mississippi State was working on a first to worst story.  Do you now think they'll make it into the field of 64?
Kendall Rogers
12:39
David -- I had State sitting at 12-18 in the SEC at the end of the season before the weekend, and that was assuming an Auburn series win. I suppose I shouldn't deviate from that prediction at this point. Ask me again next week. I might switch that Florida series to a series win at this point, though. I don't have an ounce of faith in UF right now.
George
12:42
How do you feel about Florida not make the tournament.. They will probably end up with 12 wins in SEC
Kendall Rogers
12:42
I have Florida sitting at 14-16 at the end of the regular season. That would put the Gators on the bubble, but the RPI right now is sitting at 11 overall. Florida's a weird postseason case at this point because of the high-end series wins against Miami, Arkansas and Alabama.
DrDoolittle
12:44
Is the Hoos recent skid a blip in the radar or more of water finding its level? 3 home ACC series in a row (UNC-VT-Clemson) before ending at Louisville. How do you see things shaking out?
Aaron Fitt
12:44
I do think Virginia is a very good club, but maybe wasn't ever truly the elite club that its early record might have led people to believe. I'm still not quite sold on the pitching as Omaha-caliber, but I think the offense is, even though it has cooled off lately. I do expect UVa to get back on track with those three straight home series; this is still a dangerous team that I suspect will handle its business at home.
Guest
12:45
Texas St a host at this point?
Kendall Rogers
12:45
Guest -- really good club, but the Bobcats have next to no shot to hose with an RPI in the 50s right now. The Bobcats would need to get up to 20-22, in that range, just to be in the discussion. They're going to give someone some headaches as a No. 2 seed, however.
Tito
12:46
with the series loss to Stanford does UCLA still have a chance to be a regional host?
Kendall Rogers
12:46
Tito -- UCLA would need to finish very very strong. RPI is sitting in the 50s right now after that series loss to Stanford. If UCLA won the Pac 12 and had an RPI in the 30s/40s, I bet it would still host, though. UCLA is still only a game out of first place right now. Long way to go.
FittsMagic
12:46
Midweeks don't usually matter all that much, but this 2-game set for the Zags in Corvallis (Mon-Tues) could hold the key to a Spokane regional. How vital is it for them to take at least one? Does that provide some room for error down the stretch? Any Kempner update?
Aaron Fitt
12:46
Great point, FittsMagic -- for a team like Gonzaga that doesn't get to play elite competition on weekends during conference play, this two-game midweek set is crucial -- in particular, don't get swept. Gonzaga at least does have some marquee weekend wins serving as a tentpole for its hosting case, with that road sweep of Oklahoma State. Have not heard an update on Kempner, no.
Tim
12:48
kendall, Ross Kivett at Houston has seen to provide an immediate impact to the offense. Vastly improved from last season, how quickly does he become a head coach?
Kendall Rogers
12:48
Tim -- When some folks around the Houston program asked me about assistant hires on the offensive side in the offseason, Ross Kivett is the first person who came to mind. Kivett was an ultimate grinder in college at Kansas State and was a terrific player. He knows what work needs to put in to be elite. He's also hard-nosed as a coach. I love his background and am a big fan of his.
Drew
12:49
Do this weekend’s results w/o Cannon indicate how fragile UGA is if they fall into the loser’s bracket in a regional? A&M had scored 23, 16, 19, 23 runs in their four previous SEC series; 34 this weekend.
Kendall Rogers
12:49
Drew -- It does actually. Let's not forget that Kentucky teed off on Georgia in the series finale, too, while Mississippi State demolished Georgia's pitching in the series finale of that series, too. Clearly, Georgia doesn't have great options after the first couple of options, so yeah, that does concern me a little.
Conor
12:50
Any chance the Cajuns make the postseason with an at large bid if they win 5 of 7 against LSU, Georgia St, and Texas St? Or have they fallen too low at this point to climb back up in the RPI
Aaron Fitt
12:50
Interesting case here. Cajuns are in the low 50s in the RPI, so still within range of at-large territory from an RPI standpoint if they can climb in the standings, which they would certainly do if they can win those series vs. Georgia State and Texas State (which should also be RPI boosters). But they also have two RPI-draining series against 11-22 App State and 11-25 UTA, so how much will that cap their RPI potential? Louisiana just needs to finish really, really strong.
PackFan
12:53
NC State now leads the ACC Atlantic with its only series loss in last month being 2 of 3 at VT (in very bizarre weather btw) who you guys now have ranked in top 10.  So what gives on ranking Maryland instead, with no top 50 series wins, or an LSU team that is all over the place from week-week.  Pack has established more stability than much of back third of top 25
Aaron Fitt
12:53
Did I mention the ACC is a jumbled mess? NC State is now 10-7, a half game up in the Atlantic -- and it has a sweep of Georgia Tech, but that is also NCSU's only series win against a viable regional-caliber team. FSU and GT both have multiple such weekends, but again, NC State has that head-to-head sweep vs. GT. Separating all those teams is a fool's errand right now, so we'll just wait for a little more clarity to emerge. Sweeping Boston College does not move the needle.
Niels Dore
12:53
I know Tennessee is really good, but they are out of control with the antics, and it all stems from Tony Vitello at the top.  The chippiness, bat flips, running their mouths, daddy hat and fur coat is just over the top and not good for the game.  It all came to a head Friday when Vitello bumped the umpire and was ejected.  Should Vitello be suspended for more than 4 games?  Should the SEC or Tennessee's AD make a strong statement to bring (and his team) down several notches?
Kendall Rogers
12:53
So, here is the thing about Tennessee. I actually love Vitello's energy. Tennessee desperately needed that. I also have no issue with some of their antics, but you also can't be mad when another team does it. For instance, when Alabama celebrated, some Vols players took offense to it and complained about it in the media. If you're going to prance around the bases after a home run (which i'm fine with), you can't get mad when someone else dishes it back.
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